Jump to content


Photo

June 94 Storm.


  • Please log in to reply
18 replies to this topic

#1 Frank

Frank

    Advanced Member

  • Advanced Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 88 posts

Posted 17 June 2017 - 09:12 AM

Hypothetically speaking,  Re the June 94 storm, would it have been possible to have sailed out of the path with the type of weather updates available now (Predictwind, modern weather prediction algorithms, more data, modems, etc etc.) 

 

Or did it brew too quickly and move too fast ?

 

I hope the question is not to dumb, apologies in advance if it is.

 

Thanks

 

Frank

 

 


  • 0

#2 Fish

Fish

    Advanced Member

  • Advanced Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,702 posts

Posted 17 June 2017 - 10:12 AM

Interesting question, def not not dumb. I'm interested in the answer (I'm not qualified to answer it).

Do you know what forecasts and Comms they had in 94?
I'm guessing only isobar charts and SSB's?
Some may have had weather faxes?

I'm thinking the modern Comms in combination with modern forecasts would make a notable difference.
  • 0

#3 MarkMT

MarkMT

    Advanced Member

  • Advanced Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 555 posts
  • LocationLake Zurich, Illinois

Posted 17 June 2017 - 10:43 AM

Some interesting reading here: http://www.pangolin.co.nz/node/7


  • 1

#4 Knot Me... maybe

Knot Me... maybe

    Advanced Member

  • Advanced Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 3,509 posts

Posted 17 June 2017 - 02:40 PM

A good question.

 

I think it would be a lot harder for that to happen again from the weather tracking angle but would all the boats out there know it was coming? Possibly not as many are in stealth mode when in the deep blue i.e they don't communicate when at sea.


  • 0

#5 Kevin McCready

Kevin McCready

    Advanced Member

  • Advanced Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 543 posts

Posted 17 June 2017 - 02:58 PM

Seems the fleet was in touch with each other. Did the boats that first noted a dramatic barometric drop pass it on?  Not that I'm saying it would have been different but I get the feeling from the pangolin link that some might have been slow to respond. Seems we also know more know about how the "bombs" develop.


  • 0

#6 Frank

Frank

    Advanced Member

  • Advanced Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 88 posts

Posted 17 June 2017 - 03:21 PM

Interesting question, def not not dumb. I'm interested in the answer (I'm not qualified to answer it).

Do you know what forecasts and Comms they had in 94?
I'm guessing only isobar charts and SSB's?
Some may have had weather faxes?

I'm thinking the modern Comms in combination with modern forecasts would make a notable difference.

I think weatherfax providing isobar charts and  possibly grib files but I'm not sure of the update frequency.


  • 0

#7 Frank

Frank

    Advanced Member

  • Advanced Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 88 posts

Posted 17 June 2017 - 03:22 PM

Seems the fleet was in touch with each other. Did the boats that first noted a dramatic barometric drop pass it on?  Not that I'm saying it would have been different but I get the feeling from the pangolin link that some might have been slow to respond. Seems we also know more know about how the "bombs" develop.

Good Points there.


  • 0

#8 Addem

Addem

    Advanced Member

  • Advanced Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 264 posts
  • LocationTauranga

Posted 17 June 2017 - 05:06 PM

I read a book about it sometime ago, can't remember what it was called. I do recall wondering the same thing. The issue was that the fleet knew it was coming and we're all In touch with Taupo radio (?) but the forecasters couldn't give guidance as to the track it was going to take. Iirc it chased the boats that headed east and the ones that ran with it couldn't escape. I think that at first it was traveling very fast and then slowed over the fleet as it met cooler water.

I remember sharing their trepidation as they were all told to brace for it and do the best they can. The skipper of that catamaran hand steered for several days without a break until the steering broke.

The consequence of reading that book is my wife picked it up for a skim read one day and then swore she'd never leave sight of land in a boat.
  • 0

#9 Frank

Frank

    Advanced Member

  • Advanced Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 88 posts

Posted 17 June 2017 - 05:51 PM

Reading that report on the link posted by Mark MT, I don't think modern systems would have made a difference.It was expanding as it moved and formed very quickly.


  • 0

#10 marinheiro

marinheiro

    Advanced Member

  • Advanced Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 385 posts
  • LocationSandspit NZ/Belo Horizonte Brasil

Posted 18 June 2017 - 01:53 PM

Dashew has quite an indepth analysis of the storm in his book "Surviving the Storm", which can be down loaded here
http//:setsail.com/sts.pdf
it would appear that all the Met offices were issuing different forecasts with the Fiji office closest to the fact
  • 0




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users