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Impending nasty weather approx 17th Feb


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#1 Knot Me... maybe

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 04:02 PM

I see early warnings are out for a nasty due to arrive later next week. Looks like it is grumpy and aiming at Auckland.

 

https://www.msn.com/...ocid=spartanntp


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#2 Clipper

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 04:25 PM

Was showing on Metvuw,now its gone.


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#3 Knot Me... maybe

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 04:30 PM

Oh, I like that post Clipper.

It may save quiet a few panicked boaters ringing last thing on Friday demanding their boats are better prepared for a big nasty.

 

Don't laugh, that is sadly far too common.


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#4 wheels

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 04:36 PM

There has been a bit of argument over this. It seems the Metservice are taking a wild guess and many have complained of Fear mongering.
The latest updated track places it in the middle of the Tasman and tracking more toward Oz than NZ. But it is a lot of guess work in something like that so far out time wise. I was surprised at how far East the storm goes and then it hooks back and travels a looong way SW. That is, if it continues to follow the predicted path. However, I very much doubt it will. These storms are just are too volatile to accurately predict.


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#5 mcp

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 04:54 PM

It is still on Metvuw.   They have just changed their prediction for how fast it is moving.  It shows on the southwest Pacific forecast.

 

http://metvuw.com/fo...ion=swp&tim=240


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#6 kiwi_jon

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 05:34 PM

There has been a bit of argument over this. It seems the Metservice are taking a wild guess and many have complained of Fear mongering.
The latest updated track places it in the middle of the Tasman and tracking more toward Oz than NZ. But it is a lot of guess work in something like that so far out time wise. I was surprised at how far East the storm goes and then it hooks back and travels a looong way SW. That is, if it continues to follow the predicted path. However, I very much doubt it will. These storms are just are too volatile to accurately predict.


That is not correct. Weatherwatch.co.nz were the ones that first forecast and report it today. Metservice say they are still observing it.
Weatherwatch uses the GFS model whose prediction shows a direct hit.
ECMWF prediction shows it going down the Tasman.

NIWA also got in on the act and are already calling it Cyclone Gita.
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#7 Priscilla II

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 06:04 PM

Better safe than sorry the saying goes.
Going to keep my eyes on this and make sure that my little princess is all tucked up nice and safe.
The forecasts all point to something brewing and if It buggers off or never arrives at least there is time in hand to plan prudently.
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#8 madyottie

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 06:11 PM

Oh, I like that post Clipper.
It may save quiet a few panicked boaters ringing last thing on Friday demanding their boats are better prepared for a big nasty.

Don't laugh, that is sadly far too common.

Sooo, I'll call you next Friday?

Oh no wait, I still don't have a certified mooring. Wonder if it'll be ready by next summer?

Hope so, starting to forget what water looks like
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3mm ply is no match for 110kg size 11 boots! Anyone know how to fix my foredeck?

 


#9 darkside

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 06:18 PM

Hosing down last night and all today in Apia.

Quite a good pressure wave on the river beside Aggies.

Looks like Nukualofa might get a bit.


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#10 Black Panther

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 08:59 PM

Doubled the lines two hours ago. Getting some good gusts in the 30s now. Think I heard 47 at channel.
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“If we don’t change our direction, we will end up where we are headed.”

 





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