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Go on Nats, pick Collins as your leader...I dare you.


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#1 Zozza

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Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:25 AM

...and be resigned to be in Opposition till at least 2023.

 

I can't think of a more unpopular person in NZ Politics at the moment. She makes Winston seem like Santa Claus.

She has so much baggage she needs a carousel at the airport reserved especially for her.


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#2 Fish

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Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:45 AM

I think the generally accepted doctrine within political circles is, whoever becomes leader of the National Party now will not become PM. They will go through at least one, if not more iterations of leader before they get anyone any good.

The smart money will be to stand back in the shadows for a while and let the dogs fight it out. In 12 to 18 months will be the time to step forward and start a serious tilt at the NP leadership and build a fresh platform into the next election.

 

I think the general theory is you let all the dead wood chop each other down, stay out of the way of the back stabbing and let all of your leadership opposition destroy each other, so that when you have a go, every one else is already dead and buried.


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#3 tuffyluffy

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Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:16 PM

They might need a new leader sooner rather than later once the three-way love fest of Adren/Peters/Shaw and their underlings start undermining and knifing each other. 

 

Winston partnered with the LabourGreens based on spite, not policy and sooner or later the differences will appear.

 

National don't need to win the next election, they just need to wait for the coalition to disintegrate


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#4 Fish

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Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:27 PM

It may be so that this current coalition disintegrates, that doesn't mean National would then be the next govt.

National had three coalition partners in the last Government.

Can you even name them now?

Two are dead and buried.The third is on serious life support.

 

There are a number of combinations of coalition that can maintain Labour as a govt, including as a minority govt. I think since the last election the political landscape is shifting. National have lost the 'shine' of being in power (the authority, or the appearance of power). Depending on your point of view, most of their cabinet look like they are in the twilight of their political careers and have that smell of desperation for profile / publicity.

 

Labour are riding the whole fab around 'non-white, non-male' etc etc, and whether or not you agree with it, it is a 'thing'.

There is a generational shift going on in politics, stale pale and male is so last year now...

 

In short, if the coalition does collapse, I wouldn't count on National being able to form a government. They may, but it definitely isn't a surity solely on the coalition collapsing.


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#5 Priscilla II

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Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:53 PM

1jOU4D1.jpg

"Jacinta believe me Winstone is this big".


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#6 Knot Me... maybe

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Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:56 PM

Don't forget the ONLY reason we have the government we do today is because Winston wanted Utu. That will, already has, cost the Winston Party dearly and maybe to the point it won't be a player next election, assuming it even makes it to it.

 

Add in a Government that is near unique in worldwide MMP systems, very fragile, is heavy on form over function, flip flopping almost by the second and it's biggest liability is that it includes Winston, NZ's most prominent thief.

 

To pick the landscape in 3 months is big call so suggesting what may happen 2.5 years out is only for those who live in special places, like mental asylums and drug induced psychedelic hazes.

 

It's gonna be funny to watch, I just hope all the kiddies don't roger the country in the meantime.


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#7 Fish

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Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:58 PM

Think you might be overstating the fragility of the current coalition there KM, but that is fine, that is your view. Just remember that your view of the world isn't the right or wrong, or what everyone else should adhere to, its just your view of the world.

And given you don't know what facebook is yet, I can understand a little how you've come to that view, and why your note picking up on the generational shift going on in politics.

I am pleased for you though that your line of business isn't particularly susceptible to disruptive technologies.

 

Just given Winston's age, I would be surprised if he is a major player next election.

 

Anyway, back on topic, who is your pick to become the new leader?

I'm going to go with Simon Bridges, as he is younger and a little more 'trendy', and has also demonstrated he is the best at "fundraising" for the party (i.e. very deft at selling himself to the highest bidder, the backers and string pullers do like that about a polly).


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#8 native

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Posted 14 February 2018 - 02:20 PM

Fish your spot on, Km has missed the moment- there is an inter-generational power shift and Adern is the vanguard of it. The oldies who grew up in the 70's and 80's with their belief systems are out the door.

 

The National leader will be sacrificial, either Joyce or Collins is my bet.


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#9 chariot

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Posted 14 February 2018 - 02:50 PM

The intergenerational power shift may be short lived when the house of cards come tumbling down. Most of the present government haven't even run a cake stall let alone a national economy.

I'm picking crusher Collins to rattle a few cages.


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#10 Zozza

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Posted 14 February 2018 - 03:06 PM

1jOU4D1.jpg

"Jacinta believe me Winstone is this big".

 

Awesome! Pi$$ed myself almost


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