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Another Cyclone


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#1 Fish

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Posted 06 March 2018 - 08:19 PM

Metservice rain forecast models are showing a dart board like feature coming out of New Caledonia and heading towards NZ around the end of the weekend.

Two predict wind models show the same feature, but go either side of NZ.

The other two predict wind models don't show it (those are the in-house models, that don't handle cyclones anyway)

 

The media haven't started bleating on about it yet - the editors probably think there is 'weather disaster fatigue' and wont give it as much coverage as the last two.

 

Anyone actually sussed it properly?

I haven't checked any of the Pacific charts for proper details. Obviously it is too far out for any reliable forecasting of a feature like that.


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#2 Sabre

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Posted 06 March 2018 - 09:15 PM

Metvuw has it going east of the country. Fingers crossed they are right
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#3 Battgirl

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 05:46 AM

They picked Gita hitting the South Island 10 days out. They are very good
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#4 ScottiE

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 09:59 AM

media has picked it up.  All models still show it going well east.


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After a decade or so of Euphoria . . . it's time to go Ballistic!
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#5 zk-cessnaguy

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 10:00 AM

this is what we use at work...

 

http://www.usno.navy...ings/sh1218.gif


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#6 John B

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 10:12 AM

Its not often you see such wildly divergent forecasts between GFS and ECMWF. Both speed and direction. EC says direct hit on Northland on monday. GFS says well out east and a lot earlier to our latitude too.

 

 A classic in the making .. who is right, the Euros or the North Americans? Roll up roll up place yer bets  please.

 

 I tend to subscribe to GFS on serious stuff .


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#7 Puff

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 10:16 AM

Windy.com has it hitting dead centre on Monday

 

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#8 John B

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 10:20 AM

^  Legend.

I was just trying to do that.  Thats the Euro forecast, have a look at the  GFS for the same  time,  SD.

 Er .. Puff.


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#9 ScottiE

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 10:24 AM

ha - never looked at those.   

Could be a good oportunity to run a wager!


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After a decade or so of Euphoria . . . it's time to go Ballistic!
Anthony

#10 Puff

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 10:25 AM

Thar

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