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Another Cyclone


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Doesn't sound very scary.

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Well thankfully, it looks like it is going to fizzle out pretty quickly tomorrow. There will still be some wind and rain, but nothing much out of the ordinary. The lower half or the North and all the South Island will completely miss out.

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Well I guess we can't get any closer to accurate predictions than this latest one.
So here is the Day ahead. Looks like all the NI will be affected in some way.
By this time tomorrow morning, it will all have moved off the Country Eastward.
I think the places not to be, are The Far North, including Whangarei and BOI,  Coromandal, which is going to get a lot of wind and Rain for the longest period of time, and Napier, which is still saturated from flooding from last weekend.

rain-nzni-2018031106-012.gif
rain-nzni-2018031106-018.gif
rain-nzni-2018031106-024.gif

 

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Well I ain't no expert and please educamate me here if I am wrong in my understanding, but I just couldn't see how all that colder dryer Southerly airstream was going to give this thing steam down here. in the mid Latitudes.
In saying that though, it has done better than I expected, but it sure fly's to pieces later tonight.

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I’m overlooking the Waitemata from my office and it’s almost calm. The flags on the waterfront buildings are hanging limp and wet. Yet Nowcasting says that just 2nm away at Bean Rick it’s blowing 25kts!

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Posted picture but forgot the text. The above is from Met service, they have been adjusting the track all afternoon. I'm in Mahurangi and we have been getting very strong SE wind but it's starting to swing to the SW as predicted.

 

Plenty of rain this arvo. Full water tanks so all good put down brew, done dishes wash down inside and still full tanks so disconnected water catcher. You guys be careful out there the roads will be slippery.  :thumbup:

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Here in the coromandel the forecast is for heavy rain and gale force wind. We have rain alright but not too heavy and I don't think the winds been over 10knots all day.

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Another one has just developed in the Coral Sea not all that far from where the past two developed. But this one looks like it will track closer to he Ozy Coastline and then stall and fade away. At least at the moment that looks to be the plan

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From the met service site.

 

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 0404 UTC 12-Mar-2018

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

There are presently no tropical cyclones in the Coral Sea or South
Pacific areas.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC TUE 13-MAR-2018
A low (TD10F) was analysed near 13.5S 160.4E at 1PM New Zealand time
Monday afternoon. The low is expected to track southwards and then
southwestwards into the northern Tasman Sea while intensifying. There
is a HIGH risk of this low developing into a tropical cyclone in the
next 36 hours.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC FRI 16-MAR-2018
TD10F is likely to track southwestwards towards the Queensland coast,
likely as a tropical cyclone, then weakening from Wednesday or early
Thursday. There is a chance of lanfall on the Queensland coast,
however, it is more likely to recurve towards the southeast into the
northern Tasman Sea on Thursday and Friday. There is a MODERATE risk
of this low still being a tropical cyclone on Wednesday, but the risk
then decreases.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0500 UTC Tue 13-Mar-2018

© Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2018

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