79 Fastnet, could it happen again?

[Black Panther 1,581]

This was the title of an article in YW on the 40th anniversary. The article was pretty weak and barely touched the question in the title

But interestingly I had that conversation a few weeks ago. Our decision it is almost inevitable

Thoughts?

[Fish 0]

I think the risks are greatly mitigated.

Main reasons, improved weather forecasting, improved comms to boats, being VHF (on all boats) and the cost effective availability of satellite comms, and satellite based trackers on all boats in race fleets in many races (i.e. yellow brick).

Then, other mitigating factors that improve outcomes if the sh*t does hit the fan;

improved navigation, boats actually know where they are, no more dead reckoning (i.e. GPS use)

There are a large number of 'slightly mitigating' factors as well. i.e. the death of IOR as a boat design basis, the tendency for people to race larger boats (less likely to get rolled in relation to sea size). Dare I say it, reduced fleet numbers due to the cost of modern racing, meaning less people out there to deal with in a mass rescue situation.

 

Then, lastly, improved safety devices and training, specifically personal locator beacons (refer the yacht recently sunk off Cape Brett returning from the Islands), improved LJ design and function, sea survival training etc.

 

There is still a risk there. Yacht racing is inherently dangerous. But advances in technology and learnings taken from both the '79 Fastnet and the '98 Hobart mitigate the risks significantly.

 

Good example: The 2007 Fastnet, basically the exact same forecast as the 79 Fastnet, race start delayed by 24 hrs, fleet got smashed in the Channel instead of the Irish Sea, we all knew what was coming and there was a large availability of safe ports to get to when the sh*t hit the fan. I remember sitting in the skippers briefing for that race, and when they put the situation map up during the weather briefing, the hairs stood up on the back of my neck,... I recognised the weather map from the book, Fastnet Force 10. The outcome of the 2007 race was I think 1 serious injury, no boats lost, and something like 60 finishers out of 300 starters. Other than having the foresight to delay the race, Race management was greatly improved with little things like complete crew lists, complete list of actual starters (as opposed to entries), complete list of retirees, (so race management actually knew how many boats were on the water, which they didn't in '79) trackers for every boat (so race management knew where everyone was, racing or not), the requirement to fly storm sails though the start ID gate (i.e crew know how to fit and use them), mandatory sea survival training, etc etc.

 

To be frank, when you dig in to the requirements and race management practices of '79, it was very poor. That has changed now.

[Fish 0]

There is a philosophical part to your question as well.

Only a fool would say it couldn't  happen again. You need to accept there is a risk of it happening again, and plan accordingly. By planning for it, you reduce the chances of it actually happening again, or being as serious. Boats will sink and people will die in yacht races. But hopefully in ones and two's, not in major mass rescues.

Kind of like taking an umbrella with you, if you take it, you wont need it. If you leave it at home, you'll get rained on...