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Depends on the year. I've done it leaving 11 Sept and had a great trip. This year has been particularly difficult, with all the weather models often disagreeing and very short windows...many boats up there still waiting now!

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"weather models often disagreeing and very short windows...many boats up there still waiting now"

 

Could it be a result of too much information. In the past you got one forecast (maybe) and then picked your best guess and just went....

 

Now we get overloaded with detail and can't make a decision.

 

tb

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Thread drift alert: I agree TimB with the "too much info" thing.

 

 The Internet is a wondrous thing and I love it - BUT - try googling something like "how to attach deck hardware" and you'll find a gazillion different ways!

 

I tend to go to the manufacturers web sites first for info now.

 

Which brings me to a total thread drift - I wish people who drill holes in boats would consult the West System manuals first! Every boat I've owned has had holes drilled and NOT used the epoxy correctly or at all to ensure no water gets into the substrates. My current yacht has a balsa core.......... just taking some hardware off now and OMG!!!

 

It is not sufficient to just use a bloody sealant!!!!

 

Rant over. Carry on.

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well if you had a solid boat and were confident why couldn,t you go up in May and come back in August or July, not every one can get 6 months off work and just because it is winter doesn,t mean that you can,t go sailing. At least in the open ocean you can adjust your course to suit the conditions, or take a break on a sea anchor. With cyclone season being unpredictable maybe too early is a lot safer than late.

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I guess it always does depend on the year and the weather at the time, of course.

 

But it's just good to know if planning to arrive in NZ in Sept is a mad idea or if it's totally feasible given appropriate planning and preparation etc. 

 

Of course most race yachts are more fully crewed than your average cruiser, and possibly make a shorter voyage of it.

 

 

 

 

On thread drift...

Not using epoxy (or similar) to seal the hole you drilled through your deck into your sheer clamp/carlin/cabin top/coaming etc. is a pet peeve of mine, too! It's also a good reason to buy/build a new boat rather than one which has been "continually improved and updated" (massive generalization, I know). It's probably the single largest factor in killing plywood boats and perpetuating the "plywood makes sh*t boats" myth.

 

Why can't every piece of deck gear be sold with a simple printed card that reads "Seal your mounting holes you f**king idiot!" Larger pieces could even be sold with a small tube of ready mix... takes only a few seconds per hole, then drink a beer before placing the bolts/screws.

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The weather forecasts these days give a good indication of what you are likely to encounter heading  north from NZ, perhaps a little less so for the return trip, but overall allow an informed decision.

Max" went to Fiji early July and came back mid August (not the preferred times) and had the odd bumpy day on both trips but no problems.

"Katariana" has just arrived from New Cal via Norfolk Is - they motored almost the whole way from Norfolk to Auckland

Yet in other years boats have experienced dreadful conditions voyaging in these same times.

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The weather forecasts these days give a good indication of what you are likely to encounter heading  north from NZ, perhaps a little less so for the return trip, but overall allow an informed decision.

Max" went to Fiji early July and came back mid August (not the preferred times) and had the odd bumpy day on both trips but no problems.

"Katariana" has just arrived from New Cal via Norfolk Is - they motored almost the whole way from Norfolk to Auckland

Yet in other years boats have experienced dreadful conditions voyaging in these same times.

Yes Katariana were using Predictwind and stopped at Norfolk for a Southerly to pass through. A good call !

On a previous return trip they weren't so lucky and got a bit of a pasting. Lesson learnt - Use every resource possible for weather and have no time constraints. We did NZ circumnav 2 years ago with very little bad experiences or on the wind stuff for exactly the same reasons - watch the weather like a hawk and move only when it dictates.

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The most common plan for this trip by any responsible modern skipper is to watch the 4 main weather model forecasts, and when they (or 3 of the 4) are close to agreement if the conditions are Ok it's time to go. This year that has been on fewer occasions than normal. When they do not agree, then conditions are unstable and forecast conditions might be completely wrong.

As skipper it's your call, and your responsibility. For many cruisers, the trip to/from NZ is the heaviest weather they see on a circumnavigation.

 

It is common to have a lot of boats waiting at a departure port (like Noumea) and discussing the forecasts between them. This can often, as mentioned above, cause "analysis paralysis" where they find it had to make any decision due to too much info and too many opinions.

 

I too have sat behind Norfolk waiting for a frontal system to pass. It was well worth the wait.

 

IMO the weather, and weighing the risks, planning the voyage, then doing it, is all part and parcel of ocean voyagers. Not to use the information available and make the most informed decision possible, is, again IMO, foolhardy.

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Interesting situation over the next 7 days to reach NZ.

If you were in Tonga I think that is where you should be staying with the low to the east of NZ and the SWly's coming off the advancing high.

From New Cal a strategy could be keep to the west and advance down the back of the high as it progresses across the Tasman & NZ. Might be some motoring required

Weather sites I check

Predictwind

Metservice

MetVUW

Marine weather

BOM (Australia)

any others of note people have used?

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I have not used it but I asume that most of the Fiji weather map info is provided in the IAC Fleet code

reports, available from Saildocs or Yotreps. I see OpenCPN has a plug in to translate this data. Useful info when at sea.

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Have arrived 2-up from Tonga in early September.  Easterly the entire way.  Cold as.

 

WX forecasting - try SwellMap.co.nz.  Got switched on to that by a fishy mate and it is proving to be more precise than MetVUW, my previous favourite.  Somehow the timing seems to be more accurate.

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