Frank 157 Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 Hypothetically speaking, Re the June 94 storm, would it have been possible to have sailed out of the path with the type of weather updates available now (Predictwind, modern weather prediction algorithms, more data, modems, etc etc.) Or did it brew too quickly and move too fast ? I hope the question is not to dumb, apologies in advance if it is. Thanks Frank Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Fish 0 Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 Interesting question, def not not dumb. I'm interested in the answer (I'm not qualified to answer it). Do you know what forecasts and Comms they had in 94? I'm guessing only isobar charts and SSB's? Some may have had weather faxes? I'm thinking the modern Comms in combination with modern forecasts would make a notable difference. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MarkMT 68 Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 Some interesting reading here: http://www.pangolin.co.nz/node/7 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Kevin McCready 83 Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Seems the fleet was in touch with each other. Did the boats that first noted a dramatic barometric drop pass it on? Not that I'm saying it would have been different but I get the feeling from the pangolin link that some might have been slow to respond. Seems we also know more know about how the "bombs" develop. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Frank 157 Posted June 17, 2017 Author Share Posted June 17, 2017 Interesting question, def not not dumb. I'm interested in the answer (I'm not qualified to answer it). Do you know what forecasts and Comms they had in 94? I'm guessing only isobar charts and SSB's? Some may have had weather faxes? I'm thinking the modern Comms in combination with modern forecasts would make a notable difference. I think weatherfax providing isobar charts and possibly grib files but I'm not sure of the update frequency. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Frank 157 Posted June 17, 2017 Author Share Posted June 17, 2017 Seems the fleet was in touch with each other. Did the boats that first noted a dramatic barometric drop pass it on? Not that I'm saying it would have been different but I get the feeling from the pangolin link that some might have been slow to respond. Seems we also know more know about how the "bombs" develop. Good Points there. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Addem 94 Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 I read a book about it sometime ago, can't remember what it was called. I do recall wondering the same thing. The issue was that the fleet knew it was coming and we're all In touch with Taupo radio (?) but the forecasters couldn't give guidance as to the track it was going to take. Iirc it chased the boats that headed east and the ones that ran with it couldn't escape. I think that at first it was traveling very fast and then slowed over the fleet as it met cooler water. I remember sharing their trepidation as they were all told to brace for it and do the best they can. The skipper of that catamaran hand steered for several days without a break until the steering broke. The consequence of reading that book is my wife picked it up for a skim read one day and then swore she'd never leave sight of land in a boat. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Frank 157 Posted June 17, 2017 Author Share Posted June 17, 2017 Reading that report on the link posted by Mark MT, I don't think modern systems would have made a difference.It was expanding as it moved and formed very quickly. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
marinheiro 352 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Dashew has quite an indepth analysis of the storm in his book "Surviving the Storm", which can be down loaded here http//:setsail.com/sts.pdf it would appear that all the Met offices were issuing different forecasts with the Fiji office closest to the fact Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jon 360 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 In the 2012 Round NZ race the question of a system developing into something was asked of a short, round, white haired weatherman at Mangonui prior to leg two from there to Stewart Is He said that there was less than 1% chance of it being a problem We were hit by a weather bomb 300nm west of cook straight (15m swells) I now run Predictwind offshore app from my Irrid go I still think a system could develop after departure but hopefully I could watch the raw data and change course if it was coming my way but that doesn't mean it wouldn't change to follow me. Offshore sailing is still safer than driving on the motorway or even the retirement homes, people die in them every day believe it or not. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
darkside 61 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Most of the radio traffic was with Jon Cullen at Kerikeri radio. I recall that Fiji Met service was worried about the storm about a day ahead of New Zealand forecasters. The chart of 50 knots plus in Farrington's book shows an area 250 miles across by 1000 miles long give or take. Without a clear idea where it was going it would have taken a bit of luck to choose which way to run. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
wheels 543 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 In a nutshell, Yes. But being able to do so depends on the type of Storm. A Tropical cyclone is actually very small in physical area and they follow a path of reasonable accuracy. With current Weather info, it is very easy to lay a path that will take you to a particular side of a Tropical cyclone. Usually the East side, as the East of these storms tend to be a little more compact/Tidy. The West side is where all the rubbish spins off them. As they travel South though, they can start to fall apart as they find the colder waters and as they decrease to Tropical lows, they broaden in area.It really depends on how much pre info the Weather maps give. If you can get days of advance warning, it is easy to sail well to the East of them and then use the Wind direction to swing around and above them. But if you are too close and can't get around it, you can be in trouble. The other thing to be weary of, is at certain times of the year, multiple storms can exist in the Tropics. You may avoid one only to be clouted by another. And also, when these things are very new and still generating, they can be rather unpredictable as to where they are going to head. They need to form and define a path. If they remain a Tropical Thunder Storm, they head off in a completely different direction.For Storms that swing up from the Southern Ocean and across from Oz, it is a very different story. Often they can be nearly the entire Tasman Sea in size and they can be across the Tasman in just 1 or 2 days, so you don't always get a chance with those ones.The fast Race boats use storms to give them a wind direction and speed they need to set big distance days. They will sit on the edge of something and get sucked along with it. But they have the beauty of speed to be able to such a thing. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Black Panther 1,581 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 I never believe I can sail out of bad weather. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
markm 30 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Think forecasts are a whole lot better but Not so good that offshore you will have the time and speed to get out of the way. One or two day trips on the New Zealand coast, it's been a long time since actual weather has really surprised, certainly still possible to get 35-45kts when you're expecting 25-35 but pretty much gone are the days when the forecast says 25-30 and 50+ arrives. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
wheels 543 Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 I never believe I can sail out of bad weather. To make myself clear, I am not saying out sail anything. I am simply referring to seeing a Cyclone forming in the Tropics and steering a course (if wind allows) that will take you well off to the side of it. And I mean well off to the side of it. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Island Time 1,230 Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 BP, you should sail a faster boat!!! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
wheels 543 Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 If he made that thing go any faster, we would have to rename him, The Black Blur 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
darkside 61 Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 Sometimes speed isn't the tactic to miss the weather. On one trip back from Fiji I remember Des from Russell radio talking about a savage low crossing northern NZ. His advice was if you couldn't get in to Opua by a certain time to wait above 28S or some such. We got in before it but those that waited bobbed around for a few days and headed on in with better conditions. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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