Metservice f@ck up again

[Fogg 427]

They're equally bad. Because if B keeps happening then human nature will lead to people ignoring the forecast and A will then happen. So it's not a case of either / or it's a case of you get both.

[Bad Kitty 252]

If you are relying on only 1 forecast, being the free public service, for your boating planning, then you’re in for some disappointing & probably dangerous times.

Personally I really rate predict wind, but there are other options also.

[Dtwo 157]

Surely this is the reason they call it a "Forecast" and not "What is going to happen".

 

Agree that it can be frustrating but rather than ranting about what a waste of public money, use that energy to learn a little about what is going on - and do your own forecasting.  Perhaps put your estimates in a public forum and look forward to being called an absolute w%#@er for not being 100% accurate 100% of the time?  Just sayin'

[Fogg 427]

If you are relying on only 1 forecast, being the free public service, for your boating planning, then you’re in for some disappointing & probably dangerous times.

Personally I really rate predict wind, but there are other options also.

 

It's not free (NZ tax payers pay for it).

 

I do use multiple sources for planning big boat trips but the point I've tried to make several times here is forget about boating. What about the other 90% of non-boating NZers who just want their mainstream national Metservice forecast to be half reliable - because this is the forecast which is relayed through all the main media channels and blasted at you all day long via TV / radio / NZ news websites and becomes the main source of weather for the majority population. And it's unreliable!

[Fogg 427]

 

but rather than ranting about what a waste of public money, use that energy to learn a little about what is going on - and do your own forecasting.  Perhaps put your estimates in a public forum and look forward to being called an absolute w%#@er for not being 100% accurate 100% of the time?  Just sayin'

 

Why should I do that? I'm not a weather forecaster and I don't pretend to be one and I don't take anyone's money to do weather forecasting so why should I start now?

 

But the professionals who do take money for their work should be accountable - or maybe you think not???

 

Bottom line - agencies & services from other countries seem to provide better NZ weather forecasts than our own Metservice (and many of you use these offshore services) so why do we still need a questionable service of our own?

[Fish 0]

 because this is the forecast which is relayed through all the main media channels and blasted at you all day long via TV / radio / NZ news websites and becomes the main source of weather for the majority population. And it's unreliable!

I'm not so sure about that. Any media outlet can buy their content from any provider - and more to the point, "Weather watch with Philip Duncan" (weatherwatch.co.nz) has the reputation for trumpeting headlines of impending doom and bad weather - giving the sensationalist headlines, while Metservice quietly beaver aware just doing the forecasting.

If you are getting your weather from TV / radio / NZ news websites, are you sure you aren't mixing up your weather providers?

 

Bottom line - agencies & services from other countries seem to provide better NZ weather forecasts than our own Metservice (and many of you use these offshore services) so why do we still need a questionable service of our own?

Do you have any examples of that?

Metservice already get their rain forecast maps from the British, sounds like another country is already providing our forecasts?

We need our own Metservice because they supply substantially more data and information than just tomorrow's forecast. Rain radar, IR and visible satellite data and rainfall records are a starter, that definitely wouldn't be provided by offshore providers, not to mention all of the airport data that airlines and private pilots rely on.

 

I don't actually know where google weather get their forecasts from, but I'm starting to think if you are relying on the 1 cm square icon on your phone, or the TV or radio, that the problem isn't with the accuracy of the forecasts but the capability of the user.

 

This service is based on data and products of the UK Met Office.

[Fogg 427]

NZ Herald + Stuff + TVNZ all use NZ MetService.

 

Apple uses TWS.

 

Google uses combo of TWS + others.

[Fish 0]

NZ Herald + Stuff + TVNZ all use NZ MetService.

 

That would be the problem then. I didn't know news websites did weather, so I went and had a look.

Stuff has the current temp, min & max, and a little icon, today it has a white fluffy cloud and one rain drop - buggered if I know what that means the weather will be like.

Herald has only has high and low temps (no current temp) and more white fluffy clouds, but three rain drops. (I think that means it will rain three times as much as one rain drop, or it could rain three times longer, but I'm not sure).

But then on the Herald site, I found this pearler:

For more detailed weather

information visit MetService.

 

Call me old fashioned, but I like to use weather sites to obtain my weather information, none of the news sites have the situation, or the outlook, or anything close to the full picture...

You can't base your forecasting on a silly little icon, try and count the rain drops, then complain that the weather didn't meet your expectations.

Icons of clouds or sun aren't a forecast, they're just icons of sun or clouds.

[Fogg 427]

That would be the problem then. I didn't know news websites did weather, so I went and had a look.

 

You can't base your forecasting on a silly little icon, try and count the rain drops, then complain that the weather didn't meet your expectations.

Icons of clouds or sun aren't a forecast, they're just icons of sun or clouds.

 

Right, this is my last attempt then I'm going to give up arguing with the internet...

 

I do not rely on "silly little icons" for my boating. I rely on several sources including the NZ CG App (which include a service which is billed as a specialised purpose-built marine weather forecast SUPPLIED BY NZ METSEVRICE). And it has been catastrophically wrong the last 2 consecutive weekends - the last of which triggered my frustrations into my OP. And my phone is full of text messages from other boaty friends who (like me) cancelled or cut-short their weekend boating for the last 2 weekends on the basis of NZ Metservice based forecasts which proved wrong around Auckland at least.

 

But let's come back to land and the normal channels of weather information which the majority of people will tap into for their everyday planning. And as you can see some of the major NZ media outlets simply pass through the forecast from NZ Metservice.

 

So in day-to-day general living in NZ the NZ Metservice forecast is all around you - it's pushed out by mainstream media (as well as all over the marine VHF and CG App etc). And it sounds highly confident in it's predictions even when the reality is the opposite (as proven by events over the last few weeks & months).

 

And you have to go out of your way to find alternatives (not just a "silly icon" on your phone but a proper detailed alternative forecast). Which most people simply don't do.

 

I think NZ Metservice has had a shocking run going back to January with multiple high profile examples of 'getting it wrong' but apart from a few column inches of people questioning a Metservice spokesperson to provide the latest 'spin & excuses' nobody else seems to be standing back and asking the bigger question "Are we really getting good value for money from this outfit?" And "Who the hell is NIWA and what exactly are you and Metservice both doing?".

[Dtwo 157]

Right, this is my last attempt then I'm going to give up arguing with the internet...

 

 

 

Hey I think everyone feels your pain, but arguing they should be more reliable because they are public funded is not a reasonable argument.  Would you make investment decisions solely based on the Reserve Bank forecast?  It may be a source that you use in making those decisions, but it would be unlikely if it was the only source you used.  Isn't weather the same?

[Black Panther 1,581]

NIWA just bought a new Cray supercomputer which is supposed to help.  I never "expect" the met office to be right. It's the weather.

[Fish 0]

And "Who the hell is NIWA and what exactly are you and Metservice both doing?".

I fully agree with this bit, two govt funded entities should not be competing.

But are we getting really getting good value for money from Metservice - absolutely, they provide substantially more information and data than just day to day forecasts of "will it be sunny or rainy".

 

The question of going boating or not last weekend. I wouldn't have taken the family out last Sunday, even in hindsight. Would I have gone racing? If the boat and crew were setup to handle 30 knts and rain, definitely.

 

There is a thing called chance.

 

If I understand correctly, the big problem was that the forecast was for 20-30 knts and rain, and it turned out to be warm and sunny for the afternoon, in parts of Auckland. There were dark clouds to the north all day. Above Little Barrier looked menacing, and I couldn't see Gt Barrier (which I've already said earlier). The rain radar showed substantial rain to the north and east of the Huaraki Gulf. The IR and visible satellite maps showed the system just to the north of the Hauraki Gulf, and it was moving in. 

 

I know, cause I checked these data sources before taking the kids out.

 

There was a substantial chance that system would move onto the Hauraki Gulf at any moment. Just because it was warm and sunny doesn't mean it was a good idea to take the family out boating. There were very few boats out on the Gulf, and the ones I saw were in close to Gulf Harbour. That was because there was substantial risk in the weather. That weather did hit, not long after dark. It could have hit any time during the day.

 

As you may have worked out by my posts to the topic, I don't think that level of forecasting warrants the criticism or a thread title "Metservice f*ck Up Again".

 

Other forecast sites showed what did happen accurately (with the benefit of hindsight), but that doesn't counter the key point, that a big dark, wet and windy monster was lurking just on the edge of the forecast area all day.

 

And on the Coastgaurd app, I have no time for that - it outrightly doesn't work for wind observations, it does a disservice to CG's reputation.

The point I wanted to make about focusing on the 'silly little icons', is that when the weather is complex, you simply can't get an accurate understanding of it from one source of information. You need to assess more than one source, either different providers, or solely on the Metservice site itself (not a news site) I look at the marine situation and forecast, the rain models, and if its important, the isobar chart and then the satellite images to see if reality is matching forecast.

 

The point is, this weather is complex. That is not Metservices fault. It is not possible to convey that complexity in simple terms of TV sound bits, or the level of detail on the CG app. If it is important, the user needs to put more effort into assessing the information. If its not important, just take a raincoat just in case.

[mattm 98]

Aleana, you do realise, that as a small island, in a big sea, forecasters have to look far from NZ for approaching weather fronts, like as far as Australia or the Pacific Islands. When they see a system heading south from Fiji for example, they then have to predict its path, which they do, I’d imagine, by averaging the path of previous similar weather systems. At any stage, and unpredictable by anything other than statistics, that weather system could turn by a degree or two, or 50, or stall for a day or two, and change the forecast, or outcome completely. This is why the 10 day forecast is fairly rough, even 5 day is hard unless in a very stable pattern. 3 days is getting more accurate.

You want them closed down because a weather pattern stopped 20kms north of where they said it would? They might have had it as 70% likely that weather would reach Auckland city, so that’s what they forecast. In a 70/20/10% likelyhood of 3 different weather systems arriving on a given day, what would you have them forecast? If they go with the 70% likely scenario, they will be wrong 30% of the time.

I would be impossible to explain to the general population all the different possibilities and outcomes, wouldn’t it?

[Bad Kitty 252]

I'm impressed that most of the crew.org mob understand that weather is just that, weather.

Anyone that expects that a forecast is cast in stone will have some disappointments, and occasionally the forecasters get it totally wrong, even Predict Wind, whom I idolize. 

Welcome to the world, it's an imperfect life!

Forecasting in Arizona is pretty simple, NZ, not so much.

Happy sailing kids!

[Fogg 427]

I'm not stupid and I do understand the unpredictability of weather as I understand the unpredictability of many other systems.

 

Probably not surprisingly, I just see it differently to most of you i.e. more a combination of acceptance of mediocre service + defensiveness of criticism + resistance to new ideas / change!

 

Anyway, how's the weekend forecast looking?

[Fish 0]

 OK. lets draw a line under last weekend, and have a look at the predictions and accuracy for this weekend.

Attached (if I've done my IT properly) is a screen shot of predict wind for the Friday evening to Sunday for Gulf Harbour (a spot just off the entrance).

Forecast date is Thursday 17th May, its the morning update (i.e. 7 am ish).

 

Lets make a record of the forecasts and see what actually happens.

[Fish 0]

Metservice forecasts:

The icon forecast,

The Recreational Marine forecast for Auckland (11 am update)

And screen grabs for the 5 day rain model for noon Saturday and noon Sunday - to reference the currently predicted situation.

all as of midday Thursday 

 

This should be sufficient information to pre-plan weekend activites, including to plan to go sailing or not.

 

Lets see what pans out.

 

[Rats 28]

Weather forecasting:  the only job you can have, where you can be wrong 50% of the time and still have a job

[khayyam 68]

Weather forecasting:  the only job you can have, where you can be wrong 50% of the time and still have a job

[John B 106]

... well ssssonnny, leans on cane, I rememberr the days when Metservice withheld information on impending TC's because they were outside their three day window they were mandated to report.

 Yup, you got better information from 1ZB  telling campers to pack up their tents than Metservice , who were telling boaties at christmas that they had 10 knots for the next 3 days. On the fourth or fifth it was 70 knots  due and they knew it..

 

 Fergus and Drena, 2 ex cyclones  a week or 10 days apart, Christmas '96/'7 season... seared into boating racial memory for evermore. I believe that season may have caused a re think as to how  a marine weather forecast operation should be run.