bigal.nz 59 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 These blustery SW winds in Auckland seem to be stronger and more persistent than I recall for this time of year. Its like spring decided to hang around for another few months. (It hasn't been that warm either!!). Do any of the weather gurus out there know how long this weather pattern hang around? I'm guessing that this pattern has been seen before? Don't get me wrong - I hear some of you say wind is needed for sailing, but its just a bit stronger than I like when short handed with the kids and I invariably have to motor against the tide and afternoon wind as it funnels up the Tamaki Cheers Al Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Fogg 427 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 I’ve observed this for the last few years - specifically the difference between Auckland and BOI during whole of Dec and Jan when BOI seems to get 10-15kts max vs Auckland at least 10kts more. And I agree it makes all the difference between a relaxed family cruise vs spending most of your time escaping the wind. Which is why we have tried to stay up north for as long as possible most years. I’ve noticed it tends to settle in Auckland much later ie from Feb onwards or even from March onwards - which is why I’ve also sometimes delayed my big ‘summer cruise’ until Feb-Mar when both the winds and anchorages are quieter. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Zozza 291 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Hi Bigal, I'm on my first single handed trip and I'm hiding away up in Sandspit. It's either "rotten luck" or "hey its NZ weather, what do you expect" Either way I'm slightly peeved at this current weather pattern, which is, as you say, more like obnoxious spring weather. Both Windytv and Predict Wind have this hanging around till Wed / Thurs next week. Luckily I have till the end of the month left to do some more enjoyable cruising, as you would hope sooner or later a less severe weather system that looks more like actual summer, might arrive. But, it is NZ so who knows. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Zozza 291 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 I’ve observed this for the last few years - specifically the difference between Auckland and BOI during whole of Dec and Jan when BOI seems to get 10-15kts max vs Auckland at least 10kts more. And I agree it makes all the difference between a relaxed family cruise vs spending most of your time escaping the wind. Which is why we have tried to stay up north for as long as possible most years. I’ve noticed it tends to settle in Auckland much later ie from Feb onwards or even from March onwards - which is why I’ve also sometimes delayed my big ‘summer cruise’ until Feb-Mar when both the winds and anchorages are quieter. I contemplated pushing north with this up my backside. But then I started thinking I might get stuck up in BOI if this proves indeed to be the weather pattern for January, and I don't feel like bashing back to Auckland, single handed, with a less than powerful engine. Guess I could always leave the boat up there.... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Fogg 427 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 I contemplated pushing north with this up my backside. But then I started thinking I might get stuck up in BOI if this proves indeed to be the weather pattern for January, and I don't feel like bashing back to Auckland, single handed, with a less than powerful engine. Guess I could always leave the boat up there.... I’ve done that (left the boat). Really enjoyed the elevated bus ride home - saw views of the landscape I’d never noticed before whilst driving in a lower vehicle. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bigal.nz 59 Posted January 3, 2020 Author Share Posted January 3, 2020 I contemplated pushing north with this up my backside. But then I started thinking I might get stuck up in BOI if this proves indeed to be the weather pattern for January, and I don't feel like bashing back to Auckland, single handed, with a less than powerful engine. Guess I could always leave the boat up there.... Similar to you but the Barrier - I have contemplated going there with a great sail out, but I might have to wait a week or more to get home or bash into it. No thanks. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
erice 732 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 everyone's getting the warning https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/01/weather-fierce-winds-to-slam-new-zealand-kiwis-should-watch-warnings.html Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bigal.nz 59 Posted January 3, 2020 Author Share Posted January 3, 2020 Nothing more of a let down that getting to Barrier and having a strong SW flow for the duration. Unless you pop around the back which can also be unpleasant when the big puffs roll down the hills. Better to wait until the pattern changes. How was the lead up to Xmas though? total glamour, then bam, come boxing day and it turns.... At least NYE and NYD was nice Quote Link to post Share on other sites
chariot 242 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Never used to take my summer leave until mid Jan as generally more settled weather. Nothing that unusual about the present weather pattern. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Fish 0 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 The weather certainly is not 'on brochure' for summer cruising with the family. I always expect it to pack up around or just after New Years anyway (I believe its a weather phenomena called Murphy's Law)... And it is best to plan to cruise later in Jan or Feb, however most of us are constrained by other commitments like jobs or the kids school. I know most retired folk just wait until Feb when everyone else has buggered off and the weather has settled... A good arguement for shifting the national holidays back 1 or 2 months. Europe take their holidays in August, not June. Just saying. Anyway, to answer the orignal question, Niwa's climate outlook for Dec 19 to Feb 2020 gives some insight into what is going on. This was issued at the end of Nov, and don't mean much to me ahead of time, as the wording is fairly broad and general. But when you want to understand the actual patterns we have now, it is actually kind of interesting (maybe I need to get out more?) The IOD is the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is responsible for all the issues in Australia (well, not all the issues, just the drought and the fires). Short story, you can catch a good SW out to the Barrier, and if you stay there long enough (i.e. late summer) you'll get a good NE to come home on 28 November 2019 Outlook Summary ENSO neutral conditions continued during November 2019, although the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were on the El Niño side of neutral. Oceanic ENSO neutral will most likely continue (70% chance) over the next three months. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) along with local and regional SSTs are expected to be the main climate drivers for New Zealand to start the summer season. More specifically: A strongly positive IOD will gradually weaken but continue to promote stronger and more frequent westerly quarter winds through at least December. Tasman Sea and NZ coastal sea surface temperatures increased during November and are now above average in some areas; this is expected to persist during the summer season. Potential impacts include increased chances for above average warmth and/or the modification of cooler air masses as they move toward NZ. December 2019 – February 2020 air pressure is forecast to be lower than normal to the west and south of New Zealand with higher than normal air pressure north of the country. This is expected to be associated with a westerly quarter air flow anomaly, especially during December. In the second half of the season, due to an expected shift in large scale climate drivers, persistent westerly quarter winds may ease and tend northeasterly quarter. A potential transition from westerly winds in December to northeasterly quarter winds later in the summer could have an impact seasonal rainfall (e.g. areas that are wetter (drier) in early summer may be drier (wetter) for the second half of the season). Temperatures for the summer season are expected to be above average for New Zealand, apart from the west of the South Island where there are about equal chances for near average or above average temperatures. Rainfall is projected to near normal for most of New Zealand, except for the west of the South Island where near normal or above normal summer rainfall is equally likely. https://niwa.co.nz/climate/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-december-2019-february-2020 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Steve Pope 243 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 NEasterlies due in around a week or so + - Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bigal.nz 59 Posted January 4, 2020 Author Share Posted January 4, 2020 The weather certainly is not 'on brochure' for summer cruising with the family. I always expect it to pack up around or just after New Years anyway (I believe its a weather phenomena called Murphy's Law)... And it is best to plan to cruise later in Jan or Feb, however most of us are constrained by other commitments like jobs or the kids school. I know most retired folk just wait until Feb when everyone else has buggered off and the weather has settled... Awsome answer. Thanks. Will keep watching the weather, hopefully those NE patterns start to show up more frequently before end of Jan. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
erice 732 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 130kph gusts from sunday afternoon https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12298006 which will upset serena playing at the asb classic in auckland next week she hasn't been since 2017 when she came 2nd and blamed auckland's gusty winds https://www.delawareonline.com/story/sports/2017/01/04/dover-native-brengle-ousts-serena-williams-asb-classic/96146968/ at least it hasn't rained this year sometimes campers get flooded out over new year Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ex TL systems 63 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 If I can put in a request its for sw 10 to 20 5 days a week because thats good for far side of barrier and north east 2 days a week for the return and a few days at tiri. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Zozza 291 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 If I can put in a request its for sw 10 to 20 5 days a week because thats good for far side of barrier and north east 2 days a week for the return and a few days at tiri. Yeah, I'll have a bit of that Sir. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bigal.nz 59 Posted January 4, 2020 Author Share Posted January 4, 2020 Yeah, I'll have a bit of that Sir. +1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Fujo 3 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 This is an interesting thread. My wife and I shot out to the Barrier four days ago on one of those real light days with out too much of a look at the forward forecast until we got there. Fortunately the fridge broke down with three weeks of frozen meat so gave me an excuse to bail out when a small window appeared yesterday. Had an enjoyable sail back to Waiheke, but a not so enjoyable motor home today with beam rock peaking at 39 when we went past. We are going to have another go at the summer cruise in a week or two. BTW.. No Spark at the Barrier and the shop has run out of Vodafone sims which is a bummer for entertainment. Someone heard about my problem and lent me 'charged' vodem. There's some great follow cruisers around! 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bigal.nz 59 Posted January 4, 2020 Author Share Posted January 4, 2020 This is an interesting thread. My wife and I shot out to the Barrier four days ago on one of those real light days with out too much of a look at the forward forecast until we got there. Fortunately the fridge broke down with three weeks of frozen meat so gave me an excuse to bail out when a small window appeared yesterday. Had an enjoyable sail back to Waiheke, but a not so enjoyable motor home today with beam rock peaking at 39 when we went past. We are going to have another go at the summer cruise in a week or two. BTW.. No Spark at the Barrier and the shop has run out of Vodafone sims which is a bummer for entertainment. Someone heard about my problem and lent me 'charged' vodem. There's some great follow cruisers around! I'm watching the weather on Predict wind - Wednesday might ease enought to go (SW) then rid out Thursday blast at Fitzroy. Weekend starting to look ok. Just praying for that NE home...... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Frank 157 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 This is an interesting thread. My wife and I shot out to the Barrier four days ago on one of those real light days with out too much of a look at the forward forecast until we got there. Fortunately the fridge broke down with three weeks of frozen meat so gave me an excuse to bail out when a small window appeared yesterday. Had an enjoyable sail back to Waiheke, but a not so enjoyable motor home today with beam rock peaking at 39 when we went past. We are going to have another go at the summer cruise in a week or two. BTW.. No Spark at the Barrier and the shop has run out of Vodafone sims which is a bummer for entertainment. Someone heard about my problem and lent me 'charged' vodem. There's some great follow cruisers around! So No Spark Coverage at all at Fitzroy ? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
raz88 96 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 So No Spark Coverage at all at Fitzroy ? No, just Vodafone. They have a cell tower out there so VF phones work a treat - we were able to stream the Sydney Hobart start quite happily. 2 degrees uses the Vodafone network when its own isn't available, so also works, but internet was so slow as to be almost unusable. Calls/txt worked fine. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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