Jump to content
Zozza

Covid 19 - Are you ready to raise sail outa here...?

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, ScottiE said:

"Going fishing is not complying with the intent of the lockdown" - welcome to a police state everyone!

Given the significance of what we are facing, both physically and economically, I have zero issue with living in a police state for a while. I am prepared to give up some of my civil liberties to beat this thing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

797 - Die due to Influenza - the low end WHO estimate

819 - Die on Brazilian roads

1111 - Die due to Homicide

1281 - Die due to Influenza - the Average WHO estimate

1770 - Die due to Influenza - the high end WHO estimate

2175 - Die by their own hand i.e commit suicide (in NZ it's a tad over 2 but due to this Govt removing targets and measures the numbers aren't kept as well as they were. The real number IS higher but how much higher is now ignored)

2615 - Die due to HIV / AIDS

3233 - Die due to TB

3699 - Die on Chinese roads

3753 - Die due to Diarrhoea related issues

28767 - Die due to cancers

48493 - Die due to cardiovascular issues

Those figures are the number of people PER DAY, every day of the year

So far Covid19 has killed 280 per day, average. This will obviously increase for a wee while at least but it has to go a long way to match some of the causes of deaths that get none of the scrutiny, coin and actions covid has. 

I bet those here and elsewhere wanking on how terrible covid is have done f*ck all about most, if not all, of the above and the other significant number of causes, the vast majority that are fixable.

Something to think about for when we come out the other end. Will you continue putting the effort you have into covid into something else or will you quickly revert back to your usual 'Tis not my problem Jack'.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's a question. So what does happen when we come out the end of this ? The 4 weeks that is. The Virus is still going to be in the World. The Borders are far from being controlled very well at the moment. Something is going to have to significantly change in that regard or another traveler is going to bring it back in and away we go again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, wheels said:

 Firstly, I see the comment made often -"The Flu" or "common Cold" - as if that is something different. It isn't. COVID 19 is another Viral Cold type Flu. There are many different strains of Virus in just this one Corona type alone. 

I don't think this is correct: Corona is a "single strand" virus. This means it is made up of a single strand of genetic material. Seasonal flu is different - multi strand DNA. The combination of the strands in different ways is how it mutates.

Corona should not be able to easily escape a vaccine, since being single strand it can't mutate (very easily).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, wheels said:

Here's a question. So what does happen when we come out the end of this ? The 4 weeks that is. The Virus is still going to be in the World. The Borders are far from being controlled very well at the moment. Something is going to have to significantly change in that regard or another traveler is going to bring it back in and away we go again.

Yeh its a good question - sadly our "4th estate" has done such a great job of dumbing themselves down that they haven't yet copped onto how to frame this question.  They're more worried about how far one can ride their bike or whether I can go for a swim at the end of the street (I can and did).  Health officials have even suggested that you can still go to your Dr. for your anti-flu vaccine!

I accept that this 4 week period is necessary but I want to hear by mid-next week what the Government's strategy is for the next 12 months - the optimistic timeframe for developing a medical solution to the virus itself.  Its highly infectous and so we are all likely to get it.  

Do we eliminate the virus from the country and then completely shut down the border for 12 months?

Do we allow some kind of controlled infection program to occur through various "bubbles"?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The modelling is frightening, eve if we stay in level 4 lock down for the next YEAR, there will stil be an epidemic when its lifted. Controlled outbreaks might be the way to go....

From https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/412664/coronavirus-modelling-shows-nz-s-lockdown-could-buy-time-for-a-vaccine

 

Modelling showed that, left unchecked, the virus would infect 89 percent of the population and up to 80,000 people would die.

Hospital capacity would be exceeded once 40,000 people had the virus, and the peak of the epidemic here would exceed that capacity ten times over.

Under the strictest suppression measures, which included social distancing, case isolation, household quarantine, and closing schools and universities, the fatalities would drop to just 0.0004 percent - about 20 people. Hospital capacity would not be exceeded for over a year.

However, that scenario would require the restrictions to remain in place until a vaccine or other treatment was developed.

"When controls are lifted after 400 days, an outbreak occurs with a similar peak size as for an uncontrolled epidemic," the researchers wrote. "In other words, these strategies can delay but not prevent the epidemic."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the key element required to ease restrictions is to massively increase our capacity to accurately test, trace and isolate in large volumes. This is what enabled the Singaporeans and Taiwanese and Germans to do so well.

In other words if someone shows symptoms you quickly test and if positive you isolate them and rapidly trace their close contacts and test them, and isolate them if necessary.

This hasn’t eliminated the virus but has stopped it running away from them as they are following close behind the likely next outbreak patients, ready to offer them isolation and care quickly.

So I think the key criteria for coming out of L4 won’t just be about what’s happening to community transmission but what has happened in terms of preparation for test, trace & treat at large scale in the health system - ultimately to reduce volume of people needing to go into ICU which will be the real bottleneck.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Aleana said:

I think the key element required to ease restrictions is to massively increase our capacity to accurately test, trace and isolate in large volumes. This is what enabled the Singaporeans and Taiwanese and Germans to do so well.

In other words if someone shows symptoms you quickly test and if positive you isolate them and rapidly trace their close contacts and test them, and isolate them if necessary.

This hasn’t eliminated the virus but has stopped it running away from them as they are following close behind the likely next outbreak patients, ready to offer them isolation and care quickly.

So I think the key criteria for coming out of L4 won’t just be about what’s happening to community transmission but what has happened in terms of preparation for test, trace & treat at large scale in the health system - ultimately to reduce volume of people needing to go into ICU which will be the real bottleneck.

I agree Aleana.

While the plan for getting out of L4 is not yet clear, we are buying precious time, time to figure out why the current testing isn't entirely accurate, time to find a vaccine, time to work out if any antiviral drugs work, time to get ventilators, time to increase testing turn around times, time to find a test that works when the infected person is asymptomatic, time to.....the list goes on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeh Ed - I'm not much of a fan of the predictive modelling that these guys are doing.  I had a quick look - the assumptions are guesswork (they admit that), there are a number of politically incorrect parameters not accounted for . . . 

 

Lockdown . . .  followed by another lockdown cannot be the solution.  That will result in more deaths then from the virus iteslf.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agree that if all you do is lockdown and sit on your hands, then you simply delay the inevitable which actually makes it worse because now you combine awful healthcare issues and death rates with months of mounting economic and social issues. So if you’re going to do nothing else then get on with it. But if you use lockdown to do some key preparation, planning and learning from others ahead of you in the cycle, then the lockdown clearly has benefits. Nobody can quantity that benefit precisely today but the alternative scenario - of letting nature take its course - is simply too awful to contemplate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...