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Covid 19 - Are you ready to raise sail outa here...?

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Tough choices but I know one thing whatever I say is 99% meaningless- I am not an epidimiologist or virologist and I also know that pointy heads in finance or economics that reduce real human lives to mathematical models are one step from being Nazi's

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If my basic math is correct then left unchecked this virus will nail hundreds of millions of people.

With good health system capacity the death rate seems to be south of 1% but with an overwhelmed health system then that seems to rise to 4-8%. 4% of 89% of the world population is around 280 million. For a period of time we could expect millions to be dying every day for quite some time.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Maté said:

Tough choices but I know one thing whatever I say is 99% meaningless- I am not an epidimiologist or virologist and I also know that pointy heads in finance or economics that reduce real human lives to mathematical models are one step from being Nazi's

Nazis - really?😔

 Please be kind

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I was in the Town Basin in Whangarei until yesterday.  On Wednesday we got an email from the management that encouraged us to either go shore or go out to anchor.  Sensible advice as there is no practical way you can self-isolate when you have to sh*t ashore.  Even in non-Covid times there are those among us that don't wash their hands after "using the facilities".  

A marina like the Basin will be a potential cluster of infection - lots of overseas visitors, returnees, older folk, those that don't believe in obeying instructions, etc etc.  

I came down to Mahurangi today.  I will be isolating until I (hopefully) pick up the wife from her return flight from the UK.  Then we will be isolating some more.  Pretty easy on a well-provisioned cruising yacht - it's our home.

I did see a surprising amount of boats out today, I choose not to judge as they will all have their own stories.

A positive aspect of Covid - people anchoring are practising "Social Distancing" and spacing themselves out as much as possible.  Long may it continue.

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1 hour ago, Sabre said:

If my basic math is correct then left unchecked this virus will nail hundreds of millions of people.

With good health system capacity the death rate seems to be south of 1% but with an overwhelmed health system then that seems to rise to 4-8%. 4% of 89% of the world population is around 280 million. For a period of time we could expect millions to be dying every day for quite some time.

 

 

I suspect that your basic math is probably based on this original study that came out of Imp. Col. upon which our own dudes started with.  Here's "a bit of a revision"!

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/imperial-college-scientist-who-predicted-500k-coronavirus-deaths-in-uk-revises-to-20k-or-less

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/the-scientist-whose-doomsday-pandemic-model-predicted-armageddon-just-walked-back-the-apocalyptic-predictions/

But hey it's just numbers right !?!

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20 minutes ago, ScottiE said:

I suspect that your basic math is probably based on this original study that came out of Imp. Col. upon which our own dudes started with.  Here's "a bit of a revision"!

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/imperial-college-scientist-who-predicted-500k-coronavirus-deaths-in-uk-revises-to-20k-or-less

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/the-scientist-whose-doomsday-pandemic-model-predicted-armageddon-just-walked-back-the-apocalyptic-predictions/

But hey it's just numbers right !?!

"Revision" ? - Well, no. He actually offered simulations of numerous scenarios. The one resulting in 500,000 deaths was one where Great Britain just carried on life as before. Other scenarios, where the country locked down whenever it was necessary to stop the disease’s spread, put death totals below 20,000. (See the rightmost death columns of Tables 4 and 5.)

Since the paper came out, Great Britain has adopted a strategy of aggressively containing the virus and expanded its intensive-care capacity, so a prediction of a much lower death toll and less stress on ICUs hardly seems surprising.

But hey its just posting links to articles without context right?

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29 minutes ago, ScottiE said:

I suspect that your basic math is probably based on this original study that came out of Imp. Col. upon which our own dudes started with.  Here's "a bit of a revision"!

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/imperial-college-scientist-who-predicted-500k-coronavirus-deaths-in-uk-revises-to-20k-or-less

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/the-scientist-whose-doomsday-pandemic-model-predicted-armageddon-just-walked-back-the-apocalyptic-predictions/

But hey it's just numbers right !?!

More than happy if my math is wrong.. time will tell

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1 hour ago, Dtwo said:

I will be isolating until I (hopefully) pick up the wife from her return flight from the UK.  Then we will be isolating some more. 

I think you’re in for a surprise. I doubt she will be able to just jump on a boat with you

have you read that you aren’t supposed to move once you have anchored except For the safety of the vessel. 

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