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Covid 19 - Are you ready to raise sail outa here...?

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Thats 475 deaths in Italy in a day.

Italian death toll is at 3,000

35,713 confirmed cases.

 

For anyone that is a bit slow at maths, that is a death rate of 8.4%

 

8.4% of NZ's population is 420,000.

 

Don't take this the wrong way, but actually that is not an accurate statistic. An important part is left out. Age and Health. If those two points are factored in, then the actual rate becomes much lower.

This is one of the main points in the reason of closing boarders and keep people apart etc etc. For most of the Worlds population, the affects of the Virus is just a Cold, varying in degrees of severity. But for a small percentage, being the elderly and those with health issues, it is serious and can be deadly. We don't know from those Stats from Italy if the majority of those that died are elderly and have health issues.

The statistics are still showing that this Virus has about the same impact on the death rate at around 2.5%, The Flu that has just done the rounds this last winter in the Northern Hem, is slightly higher than CoV19

But we want to protect our elderly and those with health issues till a vaccine is available. So hence the World wide strategy. taking place.

Edited by wheels

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So as you see here, the Death rate is wildly different depending on age. I am not quite sure how to do it myself, but there is some kind of calculator that corrects the figures if you take the age group from 0 through to 80+ as well as the number of people on the of those age groups. It is a case of Statistics can be made to tell you anything quite truthfully, depending on how you want to use the data.
case_fatality_ratio_age.jpg

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Thats 475 deaths in Italy in a day.

Italian death toll is at 3,000

35,713 confirmed cases.

 

For anyone that is a bit slow at maths, that is a death rate of 8.4%

 

8.4% of NZ's population is 420,000.

With respect Fish - that's nonsense - or a bit slow with statistics.  The 8.4% you are describing is the case fatality rate (CFR) - that is number of deaths per confirmed cases.  That should not be conflated with the mortality rate which is last computation above.  Based your numbers the mortality rate currently is 3000/61000000 = small (acknowledging that 3000 acual people have tragically died).  It should also be pointed out that Silvio Brusaferro, the president of the Higher Institute of Health in Rome, noted that, “Positive deceased patients have an average of over 80 years—80.3 to be exact—and are essentially predominantly male.” Only 25.8 percent of deaths attributed to the virus were women.

 

Ignoring the fact that Italy's population is "older loaded" and being ignorant of the fact that we are an island nation, nto signed up to the "one belt one road" accord etc - based on itall's number our morbidity number would be more more like 250.  However you just cannot compre the two countries.

 

We should not be complacent but we should at least be accurate.

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On the ball Scottie, its all about the cases but the salient point is that if we only have x ICU beds and if get x times 2 or 10 then we have a problem. read a bloomberg article saying that 99% had pre-existing conditions https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

 

The Diamond Princess had a 0.5% death rate and that may be the actual numbers overall for everyone, still huge if a lot of people get it which is what we are trying to avoid.

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well golly gee, once again after telling us everything is under control the always behind the 8 ball government has closed the border to visitors as of midnight.

Pulling the drawbridge up after wheeling the Trojan Horse into the castle is an exercise in futility.

We have 178 intensive care beds in NZ and the Minister of Health (who knows nothing about medicine) could not or would not answer in parliament today how many are already occupied by regular medical cases.

We are on our own here, the medical system will only be able to help a very few

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https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/86-of-people-with-coronavirus-are-walking-around-undetected-study-says/

Not necessarily inclined to believe anything from US media, but this is interesting and potentially quite influential on things like the mortality rate conversations above. Easy to imagine there are many cases going unreported in some countries and consequently the mortality rates being reported could be much worse than they actually are.

 

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Stats from Italy show that if you’re healthy you’re very low risk (0.8% deaths). But if you have any pre-existing health condition (eg diabetes, pre-diabetes, hypertension, cardiac issues etc) then the risk jumps up hugely. Age is an overlay but it seems the pre-existing conditions are equally or more important than age. So a young person with diabetes seems more at risk than an older person in good health.
 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8130479/99-patients-killed-coronavirus-Italy-existing-illnesses-study-finds.html

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19 hours ago, ScottiE said:

With respect Fish - that's nonsense - or a bit slow with statistics. 

 

Blah blah blah, what a load of twaddlebollocks.

Have a look at what I said, and think about it. You guys are diving into quantitative analysis to multiple decimal points. Don't waste your time. Look at the problem on a qualitative level. Does Italy have a big problem? how big is it, big, large, massive, hugely massive, or completely obiliteratingly hugely massive?

 

If we and all New Zealanders don't take this seriously, will we have a small problem, a mild inconvenience, or something on the scale of what Italy are seeing? Its not a complicated concept.

It is perfectly natural to seek comfort and solice in stats, that you will be ok, but given the urgency and real underlying danger here, everyone needs to do absolutely everything they can to slow and control this.

And as for marinheiro, in times of crisis you can either be helpful and constructive, or you can play politics. Nice Simon tried that the other day and got slammed from all quarters. Now he is being a bit more helpful in his comments (and I'm actually finding myself agreeing with him). I agree with you that the govt should be moving faster and stronger. I wanted the border closed last weekend. 6 days later isn't too bad for a govt decision making machine, and at least they've done it now. As for the Health Minister not knowing how many ICU beds there are, remember, the key job of the govt is to not spread panic - he knows alright. JA's job is to reassure people and keep them calm. Already we have seen a facebook rumour of impending shut down cause wide spread panic and carnage at supermarkets. So she has to squash that rumour, so people can at least get one loaf of bread and a box of tissues (Countdown are rationing those and rice for f**ks sake!)

The Health Minister knows full well how many ICU beds there is, and it is not nearly enough by a factor of 10 (at least). He isn't going to go and say that though, cause it would cause major panic. You can only trust that there are teams working on sorting more beds (and somehow, staff for them), but in the background. If there was a public outcry over this, it would be substantially harder to sort it. It is obvious what happens as soon as the media talk up a run on something (TP), everyone gets anxiety and runs out to panic buy it. If no one knows there is a possible shortage, no-one buys more, and there isn't a shortage - self fulfilling prophecy and all.

The best we can do is actually listen to the govts advice. Wash your hands, cough into your elbow, don't travel, stay socially isolated, don't share rum buckets, race short handed this winter...

If you have just arrived back in the country, don't think it is your god given right to go down the yachtie for a beverage, jump on the Friday rum race boat with 6 other people just cause you want to do the Friday rum race, or otherwise spread your risk around - regardless of if you feel fine or not.

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