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Zozza

Covid 19 - Are you ready to raise sail outa here...?

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2 hours ago, Zozza said:

Schools should be locked down now too.   I really don't get it.  Let thousands of kids go to school, then go home each day -- it's just defying all the reason of sanity....in my opinion.

Yeah, its going to make things tough for people with kids who need to work -- tough.  We need to break the back of this virus first -- then worry about the economics afterwards.
Not much point in worrying about money if you or your loved ones die or are responsible for spreading the virus to someone close to you who dies as a result.

We are in great debate about sending our kids to school. So are our neighbours. The school has cancelled all assemblies, all trips and fairly much anything that gathers kids in groups outside of their immediate classroom. In my boys case (new entrant) there is 16 kids total and the teacher. He plays on the year 1 playground which has a total of 4 classes playing on it. Years 3-4 play in a different area, and again years 5-6 have a different area of the school, and different playground again. So with no assemblies and trips there is a degree of segregation occurring. 

I can see for older kids, closing school will result in them roaming in packs around the neighbourhood. At the drop of a hat we get grandad to look after the kids - a large portion of grandparents now need to be in mandatory isolation... So I can see weight in the govts arguement that closing schools can be counter productive. Just look at Aussie, everyone has gone to the beach - no isolation there, Bondi is rammed. For some kids, parents would have to physcially restrain them, esp boys in puberty and girls on heat. You ain't ever going to stop them congregating, so it may actually reduce contact by keeping them in school and confined to their class group.

I'm not saying its right, or that i agree with it. But it is a tough call...

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2 hours ago, lateral said:

 

"A friend of mine received a video from a friend who is currently in isolation in a Beijing hotel, it showed the streets visible from the hotel room almost deserted. You can be sure they still have a major problem"

Is he in isolation because he tested positive?

Was a returning resident arriving from USA, so automatically subject to 14 days isolation which is rather more heavily enforced than the Australian/NZ type of self isolation.

Taiwan, knowing their Chinese "brothers" all too well jumped on it very quickly when the first alerts came out,

 https://thebfd.co.nz/2020/03/covid-19-what-we-can-learn-from-taiwan/

I have also noted Germany has a high number of cases, currently almost 20,000 but a very low death toll, just 68. Iran and Spain with similar number of cases have death tolls well over 1000 each. Unsure of the reason behind this, some articles attribute this to the majority of cases being younger people, whereas in Italy it has hammered the elderly. USA also has a relatively low toll 

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7 hours ago, harrytom said:

Wonder if Simon Bridges would of done it any different?? poor old J. first Ch-Ch now this

JohnK / national had a mine disaster, 3x earthquakes and a residual GFC.

They all get disasters but the key is to never waste one. J certainly is not wasting her opportunity.

Bridges said he would have closed the borders earlier...  He is stuck between a rock and a hard place if he says anything.

He is definitely looking best when he says nothing.

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6 hours ago, marinheiro said:

Was a returning resident arriving from USA, so automatically subject to 14 days isolation which is rather more heavily enforced than the Australian/NZ type of self isolation.

Taiwan, knowing their Chinese "brothers" all too well jumped on it very quickly when the first alerts came out,

 https://thebfd.co.nz/2020/03/covid-19-what-we-can-learn-from-taiwan/

I have also noted Germany has a high number of cases, currently almost 20,000 but a very low death toll, just 68. Iran and Spain with similar number of cases have death tolls well over 1000 each. Unsure of the reason behind this, some articles attribute this to the majority of cases being younger people, whereas in Italy it has hammered the elderly. USA also has a relatively low toll 

Yes, I noticed varying death rates for whatever reason.

I am also very aware of our varied Kiwi penchant for not enforcing protocols  stipulated.

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The death rates depend on the average age of that specific Country. Italy has the largest number of Older people than any other Country and therefore their high rate.

Here in Blenheim, we had been hearing a rumor for most of last week that someone was in the Hospital with the Virus. It was only announced yesterday.

In Wellington, Te Papa visitors have been told to self isolate due to the Cruise Ship Ruby Princess passengers going through Te Papa on the 14th. On the 15th, that very Ship unloaded all it's passengers in Picton and the little Steam Train brought through many people to Blenheim for the Day.

I am hearing far too many stories of Dr's not testing people presenting with Cold symptoms because they have not been in contact with anyone that is known to have the Virus, or they have a runny nose and that is not a part of the Virus, or have not traveled and so on.

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Wheels, can I suggest that you limit what you believe to fact rather than rumour.

From the MoH update 20 Mar. here - https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/covid-19-update-ruby-princess-and-celebrity-solstice-cruises

“The ship travelled to Fiordland (11 March), Dunedin (12 March), Akaroa (13 March), Wellington (14 March) and Napier (15 March).  The cruise was shortened after visiting Napier, for weather reasons, and the ship returned directly to Sydney and passengers disembarked on the 18th.”

i’m not sure why you feel that they should announce where hospitalisations are?  The new cases announced yesterday were confirmed cases. There’s lots of reasons why there might be a delay in a positive test confirmation and/or why the patient is in hospital - that’s just good medical practice.  Remember, “treatment” is not much more than complete rest, hydration and monitoring for the overwhelming majority at the moment.

As for doctors not testing, what you’ve described makes sense to me. Why over burden the system with “far too many” certain to be negative tests.  If community transmission becomes evident then that practice is likely to change. Wasting testing resources now would hinder that. The context behind the mantra “test test test”, is once community transmission has occurred. That may or may not have occurred yesterday in one case but presumably doctors in that region are now modifying their practice as a consequence.

 

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19 minutes ago, ScottiE said:

 

As for doctors not testing, what you’ve described makes sense to me. Why over burden the system with “far too many” certain to be negative tests.  If community transmission becomes evident then that practice is likely to change. Wasting testing resources now would hinder that. The context behind the mantra “test test test”, is once community transmission has occurred. That may or may not have occurred yesterday in one case but presumably doctors in that region are now modifying their practice as a consequence.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/21/coronavirus-testing-strategyshift/

Fauci seems like a steady hand on the tiller, to compensate for the blundering of trumpet.

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12 hours ago, Black Panther said:

This is way away from my area of knowledge.  So how does it play out? What's the end result?  Best case? Worst case? 

BP, this is beyond just about everyone's area of knowledge, including the medical community, who have never seen anything on this scale. My wife is tracking medical reports in both Italy and Brazil. In Italy they are using the word apocalyptic. In Brazil Rio and Sao Paulo are locked down. In USA California and quite a few other states are on lock down.

If you want to read a paper on how epidemics typically behave, see

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042718300101

NZ is going to lose some people , just the same as rest of the world. I just hope our medical system is not overwhelmed with cases like Italy.

But we will come thru this, just like every other epidemic, remember the "roaring 20's" after the Spanish flu.The next ~6 mths are going to be tough medically and continuing after that is going to be the economic hit, so maybe 2 years from now to get back on an even keel.

What can we do? Follow the government guidelines and the additional notes I wrote in a previous post. Pay special care if you or family members are at high risk,ie elderly, people with health issues - asthma, respiratory, cardio and diabetes and of course smokers. If children are healthy they are unlikely to be affected but are potential carriers so need to be kept away from high risk, so sadly no visiting grand parents.

Might be an idea to visit your favorite purveyor of fine hardware and stock up on paint and materials etc, because if we go to lock down there will be no escaping all those jobs you have been putting off to go sailing.

Sailing wise I have heard ICNZ have cancelled this year's Pacific Rally, will be a big disappointment to those who have been preparing for that, but I guess inevitable.

 

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Look at other countries to see what could happen, prepare for a lockdown. If youre ok with it,  consider packing the boat with month of dry goods, fuel up and be prepared to F-off on a cruise for a while

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