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idlerboat

Corona virus statistics and reality

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1 hour ago, Island Time said:

So, from your post you are saying your unwise? :-)

Also, from your posts in this thread and others, I think you would find it very difficult to get elected....

To stand for government in a society such as ours requires a very thick skin. Agressive disagreement is common, and insults more so, almost always from people with less information, and often lower intelligence, than those they are criticizing. Even death threats are not unheard of.

Opinions are like ass%&$#@ , everyone has one. 

Unfortunately most are ill informed,  and just plain wrong. 

Yes, the government has, and will continue to make mistakes. Every person and every organization does, they are all human based.

Part of the issue with our political system is that the best person does not necessarily get the right job. They have to get elected as well, and deal with the complications of that.

I dont have a solution,  and I'd like to see some changes in how we handle the lockdown, especially our boarders, but on the whole, for a virus with a 1-2 % mortality,  I think they have done pretty well. Better than I expected, at least to this point. IMO. 

 

Yip I would be unwise if I did... But I don't.

For me I expect polllies to be at the same or better level of competence and ability than top business owners or CEOs.

Calculated risk is ok as are mistakes. But continued incompetence with little accountability does my head in.

Opinions may be like A Holes and words are cheap. But that applies to pollies as much, if not more, than the plebs...  But their opiniona end up as bad policy which has direct results on our live s if wrong.

The way i see it is they make them self targets until they prove otherwise... Remember it was Cindy that did the post election behind door deal to grab power and Winnie who sold out on all his National supporters for more power. As such they wanted it bad.. so they need to cop the flack.

But if in 3 months time our curve is better than the norm/are will praise them. But I will not hold my breath.

Time to move on. 😁

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1 hour ago, Island Time said:

So, from your post you are saying your unwise? :-)

Also, from your posts in this thread and others, I think you would find it very difficult to get elected....

To stand for government in a society such as ours requires a very thick skin. Agressive disagreement is common, and insults more so, almost always from people with less information, and often lower intelligence, than those they are criticizing. Even death threats are not unheard of.

Opinions are like ass%&$#@ , everyone has one. 

Unfortunately most are ill informed,  and just plain wrong. 

Yes, the government has, and will continue to make mistakes. Every person and every organization does, they are all human based.

Part of the issue with our political system is that the best person does not necessarily get the right job. They have to get elected as well, and deal with the complications of that.

I dont have a solution,  and I'd like to see some changes in how we handle the lockdown, especially our boarders, but on the whole, for a virus with a 1-2 % mortality,  I think they have done pretty well. Better than I expected, at least to this point. IMO. 

+1

Mike Hoskings fanatics are just making themselves look silly.

If your opinion is that Labour= wrong and National = right, then you have surrendered reason to bigotry.

Please note  that the oversight committee for the government actions is headed by Simon Bridges.

I am not a Simon fan personally, but he has access to the same info as the govt and basically he is supporting their strategic actions while sometimes constructively criticising some of the details.

Every government in the world is in uncharted waters on this issue and ours is doing better than most... 

 

 

1 hour ago, Island Time said:

 

 

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I understand the bias(s) that are here...but thats not what this is about.

Its not about whether you personally are  compassionate enough to care about another person dying over your own self interest...that is for your own conscious and people to judge..

This post is about the statistics of corona virus that we are receiving, and the reality of what is happening. 

This is an example... chief medical officer Australia says global cases could be 5 to 10 million – ( Not the one million reported ) 

 

Start another post for inane, personal party political stuff. There are a great many people who have died already. It is a very foolish person who thinks that it cant effect or kill them or someone they care about.. Viruses dont care....There will always be people who will do nothing, risk nothing, and criticize a great deal as a justification for the first two things..... 

 

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6 hours ago, idlerboat said:

I understand the bias(s) that  

This is an example... chief medical officer Australia says global cases could be 5 to 10 million – ( Not the one million reported ) 

I don't see a problem.  1m reported.  Probably as accurate as can be made. 5 tp 10 million an educated guess at the real number. What's the problem? 

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9 hours ago, Abel Seaman said:

+1

Mike Hoskings fanatics are just making themselves look silly.

If your opinion is that Labour= wrong and National = right, then you have surrendered reason to bigotry.

Please note  that the oversight committee for the government actions is headed by Simon Bridges.

I am not a Simon fan personally, but he has access to the same info as the govt and basically he is supporting their strategic actions while sometimes constructively criticising some of the details.

Every government in the world is in uncharted waters on this issue and ours is doing better than most... 

 

 

 

Im not a Simon fan either and only listen to BBC.

My thoughts are based in logic, history, and analysis of obvious mistakes made by the government.

 

Firstly, Every country in the world are in CHARTED WATERS!!!...   This is not the first virus or pandemic. 

There are methodology, process, systems, buildings, infrastructure. dating back for many decades that deal with these things... Unfortunately  Governments, led by inept politicians, have degraded these, in the belief that we are ok and the money required to maintain them could be better spent on the other things...  Wrong!!

Take the shutting down of borders processes, the many sites around New Zealand built to isolate infections, the govt department dedicated to infectious diseases, health resources  ...among many other things... that have been Dismantled by politicians inorder to fund many unwanted/unneeded things.

Take the politicians blind belief that they can tweak the logic of the WHOs system and process, to suit thier own idealistic beliefs and as such let the virus spread without very little understanding of how it is transferred ( 17% of NZ infections cannot be traced now...   That is a result of open borders and poor testing)

So when you say we are doing better than most hoe to you compare it?.

By deaths per infections?

By infections per tests

By infections per tests per population compared by a mean average of other countries?

By a curve based on testing ratios that are basically incomparable due to many countries testing in different way, percentages, methodologies...

By a vibe?

I measure it by what we have learned from the past and totally isolation, total border control, strong leadership, strict policing.. and not mixed messaging, semi freedom, semi open border, more testing than just a Max of 4000 per day (but only about 1500 actual), focus on PPE and not on our PM focusing on a magazine company going bust ..

I could go on, but in essence the Govt (politicians payed well to make exact decisions) have made poor decisions and managed this poorly, and may not stop the virus, but will wreck our future through a huge economic recession.

I am now of the belief that, if the invection rate does not drop then we should follow # Sweden and get the economy back on track.... AKA Knot Me is 100% correct.

You may trust in Cindy and Labour's philosophies( if you can call them that) and you m ay be proven correct. ... But if not ...then what?

I believe in the learning's of the past being the most powerful tool we can have.

Things like "nip it in the bud", "go hard early", are not flippant ramblings developed but fools, but come from wise people who learnt the lessons, and developed the solutions and stratergies for the future protection of people.

Finally, there is a price to pay for easing standards, to much freedom, liberalism, and " dreamy" ideals ( green party socialism/ labour party paying kids to have kids and not work) that don't fit logic or economic common sense ( and all parties are guilty of this)...  And right now the fat lady is singing, and the conductor is not 100% focussed

 

# See separate thread on Sweden approach.

 

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Sorry..badly written on my part..

The example of the one million versus five million is what l would like to see here....(as in statistics)  ..as opposed to...the political opinions.

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14 minutes ago, Knot Me... maybe said:

Is it possible for someone to go for a sail without leaving the dock?

Think harder before answering this time please.

of course

as long as they don't leave a dock

 

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14 minutes ago, erice said:

of course

as long as they don't leave a dock

 

And why would KM want to change the sail number. Is the present number detachable, if so that,s unusual is it not and possibly indicates intended dishonesty, and breach of the registration rules.

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