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Corona virus statistics and reality

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40 minutes ago, erice said:

of course

as long as they don't leave a dock

Yeap and you could have the situation where amongst someones fleet is 3 Dragon Force 65 radio controlled yachts. They left the dock, I didn't ;)

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1 hour ago, erice said:

the fishy wuhan virus lab again

In his YouTube video, Tye focuses his attention on a researcher at the Wuhan Institute of Virology named Huang Yanling: “Most people believe her to be patient zero, and most people believe she is dead.”

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-china-trail-leading-back-to-wuhan-labs/

 

Very interesting that. Sounds very plausible.

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Commen sense and logic ...

"Today Bloomfield said on air they will not radom test as the are happy with the current level and do not want to waste test."

 Logic says.  This means they do not have enough tests to waste on random tests .

Facts...

1.So far all their tests are of people who present with symptoms.

2. Most new case are arrivals from overseas with the rest(17% internally infected from the overseas proportion)

3.They have not tested a random sample of people with "no symptoms" to determine how many people are carrying C19, passing it on, and not being visible in any stats. ( THIS IS THE BIGGEST ISSUE WE FACE OTHER THAN CLOSING THE BORDER AND MANDATORY ISOLATION/ TESTING AT OR NEAR THE AIRPORT.

 

Proof if current testing methodology flaws. 

Yesterday they upped the tests to 6000, from 4000ish and the infection rate inreased from 53 to 89

Extrapolation of these numbers combined with the current testing methodology strongly suggests that the more you test the more you find. But this increase is only of people with symptoms and not potential carriers with no symptoms

This suggests the current testing methodolgy is flawed.

In plain english

"You'll only find dogs in Albany if you limit your search to dogs in Albany"

Summary ...

You cannot reduce new infections (cases) if...

1. You are letting people into the country and then letting them go home and self isolate (the 16 case Kaitaia/kaikohe prove this). They must be contained and tested at the airport.

2. You limit your testing to only people who ..

A. Present with symptoms only

 

3. However, You must test randomly to determine...

A. People who are carriers without symptoms.

B. People with very mild symptoms who are carriers but do not present for testing.

4.  You cannot get a clear representation of the number of infection if you don't not have enough swabs. 

 

 

However, with this logic, process,  abd following the detail above, you can get a complete overview of the true transmission rate.

It astounds me that Dr Bloomfield is not " across this" and doing the aforementioned?... Or may be his hands are tied by low swab test availability and PPP ( piss poor preparation)

 

 

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