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Corona virus statistics and reality

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SailingNz.. you clearly have some very impressive credentials in the field of infectious diseases. Doctorate? Masters? Mind sharing?

Heres a take on our situation from another infectious disease expert...

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/04/coronavirus-nz-with-a-chance-to-be-only-western-nation-to-eradicate-covid-19-expert.html

 

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we've also got an elimination goal for introduced pests by 2050?

if we put the country on a war-footing 

i don't think we could kill every; possum, stoat/ferret, rat, mouse, wild goat, wild cat, deer, moose, carp, perch etc. across the country in 30 years

but if we "seriously" tried 

the social cost would send the country back to the 50s

...

so not sure why we are aiming to be the only western nation to eliminate covid-19

then what?

we become boy-in-the-bubble bhutan, leading the world in self-declared happiness

as a way of making up for 50% material shortages???  

i get confused when people aim at the stars with aspirational? bullshit

but actually only expect to climb molehills

the messaging that dreamers are in ecstasy to hear

kills effort in the realists who are asked to make the impossible truth

like how can you ever defeat "child-poverty" 

when you define it as the bottom rung of the ladder?

 

 

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18 minutes ago, erice said:

we've also got an elimination goal for introduced pests by 2050?

if we put the country on a war-footing 

i don't think we could kill every; possum, stoat/ferret, rat, mouse, wild goat, wild cat, deer, moose, carp, perch etc. across the country in 30 years

but if we "seriously" tried 

the social cost would send the country back to the 50s

...

so not sure why we are aiming to be the only western nation to eliminate covid-19

then what?

we become boy-in-the-bubble bhutan, leading the world in self-declared happiness

as a way of making up for 50% material shortages???  

i get confused when people aim at the stars with aspirational? bullshit

but actually only expect to climb molehills

the messaging that dreamers are in ecstasy to hear

kills effort in the realists who are asked to make the impossible truth

like how can you ever defeat "child-poverty" 

when you define it as the bottom rung of the ladder?

 

 

Bravo. You are spot on... But don't worry Cindy will spend billions to learn that we will not get to zero ... A bit like the Myco Bovis never ending drama/cost she promised.

And if we did, and we won't, nobody could leave or come to our exclusive broke bubble.

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2 hours ago, Sabre said:

SailingNz.. you clearly have some very impressive credentials in the field of infectious diseases. Doctorate? Masters? Mind sharing?

Heres a take on our situation from another infectious disease expert...

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/04/coronavirus-nz-with-a-chance-to-be-only-western-nation-to-eradicate-covid-19-expert.html

 

For an expert he sure does overlook the basic maths of the testing methodology/ results and overlooks the gaps in testing in favour of the theory of the process's and systems.

But I would not expect a medical expert to be a Maths, history, physics, statistical analysis expert.

The way the experts/advisors are spinning the stats analysis to make the situation look better is very interesting and I guess Cindy either buys into that, ask for the"better spin" or is totally unaware of what is going on 

He obviously put these thoughts out there before yesterday's 89 cases ( a rise) hit the news.

And yes I have a couple of letters in front of my name. And a few after.

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3 hours ago, ScottiE said:

I think we're on the same page SNZ (scary thought!) and suspect it might just be that our writing styles differ the delivery.  I agree with your comment generally about the numbers, I don't agree with your extrapolation.  I've been reflecting on what Dr. Bloomfield had to say today and here's my take.

They are not going to embark on random testing for the Wuhan Coronavirus because the expert discussion on this was that they would need to test 100,000 to get an accurate picture of the country (100k/4.8M = 2%)

At a current capacity of 6k (say) that would take 17 days and by then the picture could well be different (look back 17 days - we had about 40 cases). 

So I suspect that the discussion would also have been that the number of daily tests that might be available for random testing is so small that the data would have no practical use. 

Additionally, Dr. Bloomfield suggested that they're pretty happy with the 1 - 2 % "community transmission" in the current testing being more or less stagnant over the course of the last week or so and the overall new cases is not increasing as in other countries (and may have even peaked).  This suggests that the current lockdown measures are basically working and that staying in this lockdown mode should now see a reduction in the community spread if everybody just "stays the f**k at home".  If this is working then your extrapolation would overestimate the positive results - that's my theory anyway - flame away!

It is likely to be somewhat more complicated but on the assumption that the 100k number is valid then I can well appreciate that the methodolgy we are now following seems to be the most appropriate. 

Looking at Worldometer, it's interesting that S'pore moved to a similar lockdown strategy to us over the weekend, their number of tests per pop. is less than ours even though they've been at it weeks longer than we have.  And then Taiwan shut down much much earlier than anybody, have only 363 cases out of 37,219 tests, a similar number to us for a much much greater pop.   Sweden is another different case entirely and their numbers are beginning to shift considerably.

There are economic implications for the shutdown and it will be many years from now before anybody has a handle on how to determine a reasonable comparison let alone who comes out of it "better" (an esoteric metric in of itself)

 

Here what you are saying .,..

But...

Bloomfield will not test 100000 people because he knows he hasn't got enough swabs and infrastructure to do it.

If he did have the swabs he would do it. Inorder to to eliminate the risk of being wrong and to ensure accurate measurement and analysis of the true spread rates and pathways.

Singapore and Taiwan are more disciplined than us  because they learnt the hard lessons of many virus's years ago and are prepared..

They're policing, cleaning, community buy in, resources, man power... Leaves us for dead.

They also are synced across all service abbd leadership platforns.

Sweden, is a Maverick. But very similar to Taiwan .. but colder 

They probably have the most accurate testing records and the best analysis of the infection rates, spread, and transfer methods 

 

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9 minutes ago, Sailing NZ said:

Sweden, is a Maverick. But very similar to Taiwan .. but colder 

They probably have the most accurate testing records and the best analysis of the infection rates, spread, and transfer

Get your facts right.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/sweden-prepares-to-tighten-coronavirus-measures-as-death-toll-climbs

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4 minutes ago, Priscilla II said:

May be you should ..  read the words possible... And yes their rates will be higher due to their testing methodology and the fact C19 likes the cold.

Read my post and I am not comparing testing measures alone. There is the need for better border control.

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6 minutes ago, Black Panther said:

Sailing NZ when are you going to come clean and tell us your credentials? 

Hark is that the sound of crickets...

There is one or two in every crowd you know the type abrasive combative bombastic loud mouths that never have an ear for reason firing off half cocked half truths for some never to be discovered reason.

Trumpesque.

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