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Corona virus statistics and reality

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I'm trying to be civil NZS - really I am.  Here's the numbers for the countries I've been comparing.  I've only used these because they started out as the countries of choice by mdeia various sides of the political spectrum. This is form Worldometer and may be out a little I guess - they use government supplied data and there is no reason to suspect any of these would fiddle.

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SIngle digit deaths, relatively small number of cases for NZ, Sgp and Tai. Sweden is way off.  What is even more interesting is the number of tests reported especially when you consider the other three countries have been at this for a lot longer than us.  Bloomfield alluded to this today.  For a little country we have done a lot of tests in short order - at a significantly greater rate over time by definition.  If you accept the 100k random test number arguement put forward by Bloomfield (and I haven't seen a reason to reject this) then it is simply not realistic to expect a result that you can rely on for making a decision on what to do from a lower number of tests.

Happy for you to show me with, actual evidence or data why you think this is wrong, rather than just your contrary opinion for the sake of it.

 

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an argument with no reason

is the easiest to ignore

what is hard to ignore is when you think an argument misleads

which is basically the same as disagreeing 

based on an emotional response

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43 minutes ago, ScottiE said:

I'm trying to be civil NZS - really I am.  Here's the numbers for the countries I've been comparing.  I've only used these because they started out as the countries of choice by mdeia various sides of the political spectrum. This is form Worldometer and may be out a little I guess - they use government supplied data and there is no reason to suspect any of these would fiddle.

image.png

SIngle digit deaths, relatively small number of cases for NZ, Sgp and Tai. Sweden is way off.  What is even more interesting is the number of tests reported especially when you consider the other three countries have been at this for a lot longer than us.  Bloomfield alluded to this today.  For a little country we have done a lot of tests in short order - at a significantly greater rate over time by definition.  If you accept the 100k random test number arguement put forward by Bloomfield (and I haven't seen a reason to reject this) then it is simply not realistic to expect a result that you can rely on for making a decision on what to do from a lower number of tests.

Happy for you to show me with, actual evidence or data why you think this is wrong, rather than just your contrary opinion for the sake of it.

 

If you haven't got the gist if my points now and bit understood the differing testing Targets between your examples them there is no point now repeating the logic of my argument.

Let just see where this ends up.. then re evaluate what happened at why.

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Several US states are moving toward random tests , , including Ohio where I live. 

https://www.cleveland19.com/2020/04/06/ohio-officials-begin-random-tests-determine-how-many-covid-cases-there-are-statewide/

We are way behind on this - should have been launched a month ago. 

Random tests of representative samples of the population are the ONLY way to tell with some accuracy if the numbers of those infected is

increasing, decreasing or flat - and much else. 

It's just not possible, or even very useful, to test everyone. (Not saying those with symptoms should not be tested also -they should) 

If we DON'T do this, we can never know with any real confidence when it's time to end the lockdowns 

Every day counts. (See also Norway, Iceland, Miami-Dade) 

(To be fair, accurate tests that can be self-administered and also look for anti-bodies are only just now coming on line) 

Informative article from the Miami Herald - good questions .  https://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-ed/article241800611.html

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ohio have done well to get test reporting in order. For a while there, they actually stopped reporting the number tests because they were concerned that reporting the number of negatives would not give an actual picture - go figure!.  From Covid tracking.com in the last 10 days their data quality rating has gone from D to B. What’s interesting is that for a state population of about 11.7M they’ve tested about the same number as NZ

https://covidtracking.com/data#state-OH

 

 

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