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idlerboat

Corona virus statistics and reality

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You can re catch it. ( like most viruses)

It is the degree of symptoms that we notice in subsequent "bouts"

In this case the advice given to paramedics is that it is , in most people halving.

That is , the felt symptoms are "half" of the initial contact ramifications the second time The next also.

This does not mean that it is not dangerous to people with an immunity problem, on subsequent contacts, or other health issues. Re catching....is simplistic as a description. In many cases the virus has not in fact gone away..it has just been suppressed . It can re multiply again for many reasons .

A major danger with viruses ( and any living organism set ) is the more there is the greater the chance of mutations.

Variety is the spice of life.......

 

 

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An optimistic look at med supply levels in NZ  -  https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/health-sector-praises-protective-gear-efforts

And I wonder if any Kiwi medical stat people are considering the Icelandic approach? 

finding out how many people have the Virus w/o symptoms by randomly testing a sample of the entire population . . 

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/03/21/iceland-is-doing-science-50-of-people-with-covid-19-not-showing-symptoms-50-have-very-moderate-cold-symptoms/

Conducting a random national sample every few weeks is really the only way to tell if the number of those infected is increasing/decreasing/flat. 

Random sample means that you do not need to test massively, 5 to 10 thousand would do it. 

Much, much cheaper 

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AJ that makes  so much sense.

As the isolated village in Italy proved, there could be as many as 10 times the infected number ( not showing symptoms )if you test a full sample .. if you only test people showing symptoms the infected number and death percentage is vastly skewed.

 It makes a big difference to how you plan and isolate ....

 

 

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23 hours ago, AJ Oliver said:

An optimistic look at med supply levels in NZ  -  https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/health-sector-praises-protective-gear-efforts

And I wonder if any Kiwi medical stat people are considering the Icelandic approach? 

finding out how many people have the Virus w/o symptoms by randomly testing a sample of the entire population . . 

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/03/21/iceland-is-doing-science-50-of-people-with-covid-19-not-showing-symptoms-50-have-very-moderate-cold-symptoms/

Conducting a random national sample every few weeks is really the only way to tell if the number of those infected is increasing/decreasing/flat. 

Random sample means that you do not need to test massively, 5 to 10 thousand would do it. 

Much, much cheaper 

Send Jacinda an email. This is what we should be doing to know what the real facts are.

Can people who recover still infect others if they are still carrying the virus ( but have no physical issues )??...

 

If so we are never going to stop this?

Edited by Sailing NZ

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13 hours ago, idlerboat said:

AJ that makes  so much sense.

As the isolated village in Italy proved, there could be as many as 10 times the infected number ( not showing symptoms )if you test a full sample ..

Yeah, thanks. I sort of cannot believe that only Iceland is doing this so far - see correction below, Miami-Dade county will start next week. 

I'll keep up on it and try to let you know what is going on. 

A testing protocol such as this would seem to be even more effective for island nations like Aotearoa and Iceland 

in which you can more effectively monitor and control your borders.

Here is an article I wrote on the subject - having a hard time getting it published, which I understand is partly my 

fault for having lost my edge in keeping up with stats lingo. 

Heck, maybe I'll send it to the Herald - they've published me in the past. 

Why Aren't We Doing Random Testing for Covid-19? It's a No-Brainer. 

         By Arnold Oliver 
 
Part of the reason why the Covid-19 pandemic is frightening is that there is so much that we do not know, and this creates anxiety among both the general public as well as the medical community. For example, we don't know how many Americans are infected, how many are infected but have no symptoms, how those numbers are changing, and the locations of the hot spots. Nor do we know how effective have been the ameliorative measures taken so far, such as social isolation, hand washing, and so on. But there is a way of acquiring that information which does not require that everyone be tested. 

To develop answers to all those questions and more, why not combine Covid-19  testing with what we know about social science polling? Why not test a sample of 5,000 (or so) of us every week or two, along with an appropriate questionnaire about any symptoms, demographics, recent contacts, etc.?  New samples would be tested weekly or bi-weekly for the duration of the crisis. To get a complete picture, you need to test a solid sample of everyone - not just those that have it. We know how to generate a random representative sample of Americans and their addresses - professional pollsters do it all the time. The key is that the sample must accurately represent the entirety of the population being studied. 

By mail, Priority Mail Express, respondents would receive a Covid-19 test kit, along a survey form with a list of questions to answer, including whether they have symptoms or have already tested positive, age, gender, zip code, and any preventative measures (such as self isolation) being taken. The completed survey forms and test kits would be sent back for analysis, also by Priority, pre-paid. Reliable self-administered at home tests are now coming on line. 

It could be anticipated that the response rate for this survey would be quite high. Who would not want to know if they are infected, how many in their community have the virus, or what preventative measures tend to be more effective? 

In a few weeks, we would know what we are facing, including when and if the curve of total infections is flattening, declining or continues to be exponential, and when we can safely relax the tough restrictions now in place. Restrictions could be quickly eased for communities or regions that have brought the virus under control. Each day that restrictions are in place, there are tremendous costs to the economy and society, and it is vital that they be in place no longer than necessary. This research can offer key insights as to when that can be done. 

The cost of the mail-in test and survey would be less, and much more revealing, than the haphazard testing going on now, generally waiting to test until people with symptoms visit the doctor. The test kits can be sent out by mail using existing technology. And we know how to analyze test results using automated hands-free methods. 
 
The country of Iceland is already doing this, and has learned that around six percent of its citizens are infected, according to Fortune. And Miami-Dade country in the US will launch randomized testing next week. 

In fact, a disease testing and random polling protocol should be permanently in place, ready to test for new diseases that will doubtlessly emerge, as well as those with which we struggle at the present time. It also should have a permanent staff and budget. It might be based at the Center for Disease Control, the National Institutes of Health, or wherever Congress thinks most appropriate. 

This sort of ongoing research could very likely help us to reduce the impact, or perhaps even eliminate altogether, threatening diseases before they become pandemics. 

Realistically, there may not be enough time during this disease cycle to put such a system in place, but it should be done as expeditiously as possible anyway. We'll need it for the next pandemic, and the one after that. 
 
[Arnold Oliver is Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Heidelberg University, Tiffin, Ohio. He can be reached at [soliver@heidelberg.edu]
 
                                                                                            -END- 
 
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Yip. Total logic to test to check the real accuracy of the infection rate.

How can you put a solution together if you do not know the full extent of the problem. 

Without a vaccine you will need to eliminate the virus 100% from within your borders and keep your borders closed.

Random testing tests the reality of the infection rate and your whole containment system/processes.

Why are they not doing this and why is the WHO not enforcing this?

*World Health Organization not the Band.

 

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Ok could someone please explain Wuhan 2500 deaths but have ordered 50000 urns?

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3905788

 

Other reports said that in the period leading up to next week’s Tomb Sweeping Holiday, the fact that urns are being distributed at a rate of 500 a day at each of the city's eight mortuaries could mean that 40,000 people died, instead of the official number of 2,535.

Who do you believe??

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3 hours ago, Sailing NZ said:

Yip. Total logic to test to check the real accuracy of the infection rate.

How can you put a solution together if you do not know the full extent of the problem. 

Without a vaccine you will need to eliminate the virus 100% from within your borders and keep your borders closed.

Random testing tests the reality of the infection rate and your whole containment system/processes.

Why are they not doing this and why is the WHO not enforcing this?

*World Health Organization not the Band.

 

I am really struggling with Wuhan/China to go from 2.5k death rate to zero and start back production with no vaccine?or is there a vaccine and this was test on the people first before releasing?conspiracy theory I know but something is not adding up.

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21 minutes ago, harrytom said:

I am really struggling with Wuhan/China to go from 2.5k death rate to zero and start back production with no vaccine?or is there a vaccine and this was test on the people first before releasing?conspiracy theory I know but something is not adding up.

their better than 90% recovery rate is at odds with all other country's even allowing for the fact they were the first to be infected

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