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Corona virus statistics and reality

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3 hours ago, lateral said:

Where did you get that from? Carrier with dormant Cov19?

Asymptomatic, but tests positive for it do you mean?

Or someone who has got over it but still a carrier with dormant Cov19 waiting for opportune moment to fire up again? Heaven forbid.

1000/5M x 10k= 2

Random sample of 10k of whole pop including current positives and compare with two.

Would be interesting if nothing else.

Of course 1000 +ve'ers /5M is a skewed sample.

https://health.clevelandclinic.org/studies-show-carriers-with-mild-or-no-symptoms-are-key-part-of-covid-19-spread

 

While much of the focus has been on isolating patients who show symptoms of active disease, several new studies suggest that carriers showing mild or even no symptoms may be helping spread the virus. 

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While much of the focus has been on isolating patients who show symptoms of active disease, several new studies suggest that carriers showing mild or even no symptoms may be helping spread the virus. 

That because with asymptomatic patients it is not dormant.

 

"Test all ,may not show symptoms but can be a carrier,but how do you test a carrier as it lays dormant??"

If I understand what you are saying, I don't think you can be a carrier and the virus be dormant. Its active but suppressed Asymptomatic

just means  no symptoms but you still test positive and can pass it on.

That dormancy, as in suppressed by immune system  is a worry as would be a second round  or repeat next winter.

 

I'm hoping we have dodged a bullet here with todays recoveries being higher than new cases. Perhaps in NZ because:

* viral loads being transmitted were lower owing to summer here, so cases weren't so severe and as infectious.

*Isolation in the "nick of time"

* A PM with a good message of solidarity of purpose to get as high compliance as possible.

* Lower pop density as BP said

*Case followup and quarantine has been a lot more thorough than reported.

* Add yours..................

Fingers crossed.

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54 minutes ago, lateral said:

While much of the focus has been on isolating patients who show symptoms of active disease, several new studies suggest that carriers showing mild or even no symptoms may be helping spread the virus. 

That because with asymptomatic patients it is not dormant.

 

"Test all ,may not show symptoms but can be a carrier,but how do you test a carrier as it lays dormant??"

If I understand what you are saying, I don't think you can be a carrier and the virus be dormant. Its active but suppressed Asymptomatic

just means  no symptoms but you still test positive and can pass it on.

That dormancy, as in suppressed by immune system  is a worry as would be a second round  or repeat next winter.

 

I'm hoping we have dodged a bullet here with todays recoveries being higher than new cases. Perhaps in NZ because:

* viral loads being transmitted were lower owing to summer here, so cases weren't so severe and as infectious.

*Isolation in the "nick of time"

* A PM with a good message of solidarity of purpose to get as high compliance as possible.

* Lower pop density as BP said

*Case followup and quarantine has been a lot more thorough than reported.

* Add yours..................

Fingers crossed.

The gov't needs to be a lot tougher on arrivals and monitoring which the PM has stated they will be implementing from Overseas. Plus they need to enforce for a further 12 to 18 months (not fully release NZ from level 2) untill that period is completed with reminders during that period the public to be vigilate, shops retailers wholesalers, food, restaurants, licenced premises, bank ATM machines, public trans port services including taxis, shuttle buses and for people to wear hygiene gloves at all times when they leave their homes changing them regularly at least 10 times or more a daywhen in public, to sanistise all surfaces,(the public transport services, buses after each route run, taxis after each passenger same for suttle buses) and making the costs tax deductible in private, business tax returns, subsidise the costs  to the tune of 20 per cent or more.

LATERAL where did you get this information from? Can you please quote the source (url)?

"you can be a carrier and the virus be dormant. Its active but suppressed Asymptomatic

just means  no symptoms but you still test positive and can pass it on.

That dormancy, as in suppressed by immune system  is a worry as would be a second round  or repeat next winter."

It's got nothing to with hope or fingers x

 

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Context sunshine. Look at the context.

I was replying to HT.  “you can be a carrier and the virus be dormant. ” was HT’s comment.

 

Hope will always be important. As without it we can’t amend our failures with any passion for success.

Marked differences between the success of Taiwan and NZ shown in the numbers and by Subsequent infrastructure they set up after SARS/MERS.

 

Regarding the evolution of what happened,

with  SARS MERS and COV19 re Taiwan and Korea.

Look for The next clip after the first YouTube. That is very succinct. It got away from my big builders fingers on my phone. 

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49 minutes ago, lateral said:

Context sunshine. Look at the context.

I was replying to HT.  “you can be a carrier and the virus be dormant. ” was HT’s comment. Nowhere does it refers to your wording beginning 

Just means......... Or in the Ohio USA specialist  Cleveland  Clinic .com information re just means and ............. He is a single private specialist on infectious disease's in the USA that has access to various reports from various countries and no where could I find what you have posted as additional explanation. I do not have access to Y Tube I must admit. Also I cannot find reference to it hence asking you for the details to your source / research.

https://health.clevelandclinic.org/studies-show-carriers-with-mild-or-no-symptoms-are-key-part-of-covid-19-spread

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, lateral said:

While much of the focus has been on isolating patients who show symptoms of active disease, several new studies suggest that carriers showing mild or even no symptoms may be helping spread the virus. 

That because with asymptomatic patients it is not dormant.

 

"Test all ,may not show symptoms but can be a carrier,but how do you test a carrier as it lays dormant??"

If I understand what you are saying, I don't think you can be a carrier and the virus be dormant. Its active but suppressed Asymptomatic

just means  no symptoms but you still test positive and can pass it on.

That dormancy, as in suppressed by immune system  is a worry as would be a second round  or repeat next winter.

 

I'm hoping we have dodged a bullet here with todays recoveries being higher than new cases. Perhaps in NZ because:

* viral loads being transmitted were lower owing to summer here, so cases weren't so severe and as infectious.

*Isolation in the "nick of time"

* A PM with a good message of solidarity of purpose to get as high compliance as possible.

* Lower pop density as BP said

*Case followup and quarantine has been a lot more thorough than reported.

* Add yours..................

Fingers crossed.

"Lateral"I can line this virus up with Meningitis/Menegecoal.These viruses can be transmitted by a person who shows no signs but can be a carrier.In 2000 our son at 6 months caught both strains.never went to day care but Doctor suspect that a visitor may of been a carrier or the other possibility was airbourne but unlikely.The first bout was cleared up in 5/6 days with antibiotics and district nurse visited all those who came in contact and gave antibiotics out,The second was interesting as at first Doc said flu,But took Thomas through to middlemore and he was given a limber puncture and started antibiotics straight away.      Now for those who maybe unfamiliar symptoms were lack of appetite,lethargic and limp.he did not display any RASH unlike other cases.So if your child/baby has no rash but displays symptoms described ,please seek help as the Rash spells out danger.He spent 21 days with a tube from ankle to heart to administer drugs as being young the wrist ventures kept clogging.He fully recovered with no side effects as caught early.

 

Stay safe stay home,we can beat this.

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Finland is on board . . 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-finland-testing/finland-to-begin-randomised-coronavirus-antibody-testing-idUSKBN21P1KT

And yeah (though I am no expert) I don't think "dormant" applies very well to viruses - though the term is used. 

If they are latent within a cell, they will still show up on an anti-body test. 

And since they are not really alive to begin with, it makes little sense to think of them as "dead" either. 

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Me neither. What about Herpes, measles,chickenpox and their latency?  Their ability to be detected, for life of host.

Malaria is a bacteria which seems to stay with you for life as well in a suppressed form.

But  are they alive, able to create energy, "eat", replicate etc. In the dormant form, suppressed by an

enhanced immune system? It seems yes.

Considering the whole bacteria system in your body is in a suppressed state by your immune system is it not. 

Agreed on definition on the alive/dead. Able to replicate/not able. Somewhat abstract.

I think antibody testing is crucial, not so much random positive testing of virus.

 

Rehab: That was mine from what I have read. If it is incorrect have at it.

URL for studies. Bit early for that & doubt whether they would be peer reviewed or published with open critique.

I prefer the opinion of specialists at the coal face.

 

My Daughters town in US has 80 cases for pop of 35K = 0.0023   per capita

NZ                                     has 1170 cases  for pop of 5m = 0.00023 per capita

And yet NZ first case was twenty days before US town.

I think as my post above for multiple reasons.

Non-complying citizens are plying their non-compliance here like its a moral achievement and ideological victory.

The human importance of self.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, AJ Oliver said:

Finland is on board . . 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-finland-testing/finland-to-begin-randomised-coronavirus-antibody-testing-idUSKBN21P1KT

And yeah (though I am no expert) I don't think "dormant" applies very well to viruses - though the term is used. 

If they are latent within a cell, they will still show up on an anti-body test. 

And since they are not really alive to begin with, it makes little sense to think of them as "dead" either. 

Yip agree AJO.

Here's the thing.

With differing testing techniques and numbers tested per area, per % of population, you cannot get a handle on the true numbers.

I suspect the powers that be are either not adequately prepared and don't have the number of tests or testing labs to do the job or..

Holding the numbers back to either look good or stop panic.

I also suspect the community transfer is way higher than they know or can measure... Especially considering how many people may have it but have not known it or tested yet.

 

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If this virus is as widespread in NZ as some think why arent the dead bodies piling up? Is Cindy hiding them?

Our stats suggest the virus is not running rampant as our death rate per positive cases identified are amongst the lowest in the world.

 

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