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Corona virus statistics and reality

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The death rate is related to the age of the population and their coming into contact with the infected. 

Eg Spain's has a very family oriented culture in dense urban and small town setups. Italy and France are similar.

It is also very cold in Europe at present, especially in the north of Spain, Italy, France,... Where most of the deaths are.

If it was winter here,  then....

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so today's numbers are 50 new cases - a healthy drop on yesterday's 54 and day before's 67

                                            41 recovered - not as good as yesterday's 64 but hopefully fewer today will mean more tomorrow

                                            12 in hospital - same as yesterday but with the additional news that of the 4 in icu 2 are critical

                                  >4,000 tests done yesterday, new record

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120899975/live-coronavirus-updates

 

 

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6 hours ago, Sabre said:

If this virus is as widespread in NZ as some think why arent the dead bodies piling up? Is Cindy hiding them?

Our stats suggest the virus is not running rampant as our death rate per positive cases identified are amongst the lowest in the world.

 

You are quite right Sabre.  If elimination was our goal then it is looking increasingly likely that we are actually going to achieve that.  I've done some "bush statistical epidemiology" on the data that MoH posted yesterday, and including the just released numbers for today.

Graph 1

image.png

Graph 1 is what you see on most news sites.  However I have added some 7-rolling cumulative totals which are more illustrative.  The 7 day cumulative no. of tests illustrates that they are still ramping up their testing frequency after a hiatus two weeks ago (will start to taper off now).  The 7 day cumulative no. of +'ve tests definitely indicates a leveling out of the total positives as a consequence of the lockdown.
 
Graph 2
image.png
 
Graph 2 is the clincher though. This illustrates the % of positive tests to the number of tests undertaken, on a daily basis and on a 7-day rolling basis (and a 4-day chucked in for shits and giggles). It's pretty clear from this that after the first week of lockdown we saw a tapering and leveling of "infection requiring testing", while the second week is currently showing infection distinctly reducing.  You have to conclude that the lockdown came at the right time (probably withing days) and was successful in halting community transmission to anything like the extent we see in other countries.
 
The sample size is still really small so we could get a cluster pop up from somewhere that affects these (say one of those secret key parties in Ekatahuna run by the local constable).  But this 7-day roll is something very similar to what the boffins are probably looking at (which is where/why the MoH started).  If the grey line in Graph 1 and the the yellow (and orange) lines in graph 2 continue to head down through week three then there should be no reason why the lockdown is extended in my view.  Comes down to human nature. 
 
Graph 3
image.png
 
To that statement,  Graph 3 shows a linear extrapolation of the yellow line.  It won't be linear but likely to have a reverse log tail as it tends to zero but its good enough for discussion.  We should also see the grey line in graph 1 start to drop off quite a bit.  Not sure how infections die out but given lockdown conditions (never been done like this before in response to a viral infection) - almost a mirroring of the ramping up onto the plateau.  Again if people honour the lockdown then in two weeks (a doubling of the above time period) this thing should in theory "be done".  They will study NZ's response to this in "epidemology school" for decades it that does happen. 
 
Then what . . .?

 

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Sounds like you have a good handle on it ScottiE. Unfortunately I cant see the graphs either.

I do believe that if people respect the shutdown we actually have a shot at eliminating this but too many unknowns to bet the farm on.

I think the lockdown needs to extend to 6 weeks to mop up the communtity transmission. I had heard in the early days from reliable sources that we will likely do 6 weeks but we will see.

If we are lucky enough to eleminate it I guess we just keep the borders sealed, crank up the economy as best we can and wait for a vaccine that will come but probably 12-18 months away.

I thinks its a case of hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

 

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It makes one laugh when the media and certain people think that because the the todays infection rate was less than the day before we are on top of this.

Wrong, the rate has still risen 50 today, up from a rise yesterday.

Remember the 50 today is cumulative and thus an increase on the total. Minus the recovered of course.

It's  like some saying I saved 50% on a $5k tv!... Wrong you spent $2.5k on something you probably didn't need.

 

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18 minutes ago, ScottiE said:

Sorry - updated - hopefully that works.

 

wunderbar! 

works

next is the move to level 3 

to pull out of the economic death-spiral

hopefully on schedule

 

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yeh - the medicine looks worse than the disease.  But had we not done this it's possible that wouldn't be the case.

My "what now?" was more about how we interact with the rest of the world.  We end up being a pimple on the bottom of the planet that is wuhan coronavirus free, that nobody can come to unless they're willing to hibernate in the Novotel Ellerslie for a fortnite, that nobody will want to leave for fear of getting infected and being stuck overseas.  No toursim industry for a good while, our export industry should get a boost if we end up being fully functional . . . construction industry should be able to get going again but that will take a while as it did rely on quite a lot of overseass funding . . .

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yes

the "new" economy

once it gets moving in a year's? time

is going to be hit from all sides

by the obligations from the "old"

plus

to be; carbon-neutral, province boosting, non-ageist, non-sexist, treaty-enhancing, kind etc.

let's hope people don't decide that whining pays better than working

imho

the 'easiest' , most immediate way for gov. to generate the oil to soothe the squeaks

would be to boost gst from 15-20%

can hear the howls from here

going to be an interesting next few months to the election

clark won't be standing for dunedin

 

 

 

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