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idlerboat

Corona virus statistics and reality

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Here is a new and clearly written article on random testing . .

(There are a few minor errors, but nobody's perfect) 

https://theconversation.com/want-to-know-how-many-people-have-the-coronavirus-test-randomly-135784#_=_

If you want to see what I thought were mistakes in the article, here they are - 

Good article, but with a few lacuna and errors. They should note that the random tests need to be repeated periodically - every two weeks or so. That tells you if the number of infections is or is not growing, and at what rate. Second there are other folks also going down the random testing path - including LA county in CA, Miami-Dade county, FL, and much of Scandinavia.

 

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latest update to my little graph - been busy with my day job and couldn't arsed putting this up. The number of tests was way down again yesterday - why?  The drop in the positive rate has settled over the last few days but its hard to know whether thats because the testing numbers is low.  We'll know in a few days if testing ramps up.

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Yesterday wasn't a public holiday.  That notwithstanding I find it incredulous that the MoH didn't plan to ensure that testing "was not down for Easter".  The DG has seen fit to shut the whole country down, needs to provide the government with sound  advice based on quality information.  They've just driven a 5 day hole into that data collection.

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I also heard that due to the lockdown there are now much less sick people with the standard flu's etc so less people presenting to testing stations. Makes sense to me.

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some stand-out figures from today

100 people recovered, that's 5 times more than confirmed got it today

728 total recovered as opposed to 649 active cases, the first time recoveries have been more than active cases  

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