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Corona virus statistics and reality


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now it seems possible the woman who tested positive last month in oz

probably developed it in march, and may even have caught it in january in london

soooo.....it's quite possible the test picked up dead virus and she either didn't catch it, or spread it here....

which is better than a big list of unknowns...

good to see the systems seem to be working and community testing has opened up again

 

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I have read some very strange things about covid.  So first, yes it's real. And yes if you read reputable medical information you will probably be closer to the truth than a lot of other sources.

It’s a chance for horse face to put her ugly mug on tv every day now and the sheeple will Lao it up , perfect for re electing this clueless under performing team for the finishing touches on screwing

I don't agree and if you read the rest of what she said, she explains about the tolerance. IMO the govt have done a pretty good job at this point, in a difficult situation, with the resources we

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I think with the benifit of some hindsight, we should be considering our options if another outbreak occurs in NZ.

So many factors to consider but on the face of it Sweden's approach may prove to have been a sensible one?

They normally record around 90k deaths per annum (247/day). Currently sitting at 56k deaths for 2020 (280/day) but I suspect that will average out to some extent by the end of the year. 

Food for thought?

2047305673_Screenshot_20200801-161054_Chrome2.thumb.jpg.c7fff4bd36a69eab809f3bf78ca31f5a.jpg

 

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20 hours ago, Sabre said:

I think with the benifit of some hindsight, we should be considering our options if another outbreak occurs in NZ.

So many factors to consider but on the face of it Sweden's approach may prove to have been a sensible one?

They normally record around 90k deaths per annum (247/day). Currently sitting at 56k deaths for 2020 (280/day) but I suspect that will average out to some extent by the end of the year. 

Food for thought?

 

 

Absolutely, but don't say that too loud, you will get shot down - remember, 1 death is 1 death too many.  NZ's modified strategy is now reliant on a vaccine, or at least one with some modicum of effectiveness.  Until that happens we are a closed nation, limited in accessibility by "isolation centers" and  most likely fess to enter.  In the mean time the population moved closer to the death danger zone i.e over 55.  We have quarantined the "5m".

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Sweden is in that select group of countries that has a higher death rate per capita the the USA(red line) due to covid.

image.png.d96c7706e628906045ebceb85914daba.png

I really struggle to understand how this is a good approach?

Give its a relatively small country with little controls but a good healthcare system and probably better metrics and ethics around reporting than most countries, the flattening in the curve could be an indicator that covid is approaching saturation through the population. It may also be an indicator of what would happen if we followed a similar hands off approach here. Both of these conclusions though are a very long bow to draw.

The argument you can easily make is NZ has prevent somewhere between 2000 and 3000 unnecessary deaths. (in comparison the road death toll is between 300 to 400 annually)

Plus we have as much freedom to goto the shops/boat/pub as Sweden, without the fear factor. At the moment, keeping the borders tightly controlled and waiting for the vaccine seems like a reasonable approach, IMHO of course.

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sweden's response will be studied for a long time

while they have done worse than their immediate scandi + balti neighbors

they seem to have done better than italy, spain, uk???

ouch! can't find the uk in this table of eu nations....

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/89/COVID-19-EU-log-relative-deaths.svg/800px-COVID-19-EU-log-relative-deaths.svg.png

not part of eu anymore...

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i don't think anyone knows why britain has been hit so hard and why others have been hardly hit at all.....like madcow disease?...was the uk the only country making cheap stockfood from offal?

today it was mentioned that perhaps vietnam's excellent stats were in part due to the population already having been exposed to enough sars type viri? that they may have some natural immunity

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/122323706/coronavirus-vietnams-escape-from-covid19-may-be-down-to-natural-immunity-against-sarslike-viruses

meanwhile more horseshoe bat coronaviruseses? seem to be just waiting for the chance to mix + match with humans, in china near laos

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300072213/coronavirus-the-next-covid19-may-already-be-circulating-in-bats-study-suggests

there even a reading of the stats that says tall, bald men are more likely to get infected, because they breathe air that has been less "filtered" by other people's lungs + testosterone

https://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/gmb-doctor-explains-tall-men-22434205

even after 8 months of largely being the focus of the world's disease response efforts it's sobering to realise how little we know about how we catch this virus and and what it does to us

or why the disease seems more deadly to some races and genders(am i still allowed to say that or are race and gender now banned from science?)

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It looks like all the countries that were hit hard initially have/are coming out the other side. It will be interesting but I am starting to wonder if the world mortality rate will be much the same over 12-24 months?

4 months ago there were many unknowns but I have to say, with the real numbers starting to drop out now, Covid 19 doesn't seem as bad as the WHO and the media would have us believe. 

Maybe I'm looking at it wrong being in our safe little bubble at the bottom of the Pacific ocean but the WHO and the media seem to be very light on facts and analysis and very heavy on the fear and anxiety.

What am I missing?

Italy typically has an annual death rate of around 10.6 deaths per 1000. Covid has accounted for around 5.8 deaths per 1000 to date and it looks like they are all but done?

Do they now have herd immunity? Where is the expert analysis? Are my numbers wrong?

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On 2/08/2020 at 4:59 PM, Ed said:

Sweden is in that select group of countries that has a higher death rate per capita the the USA(red line) due to covid.

image.png.d96c7706e628906045ebceb85914daba.png

I really struggle to understand how this is a good approach?

Maybe it isn't but I'm certainly not convinced that they have done a bad job either.

Has covid simply condensed 12-18 months worth of deaths into 2-3 months?

Speculation I know but given there seems very little expert analysis, in the media atleast, what else can I do?

The media seems completely focused on the fear factor of covid and almost completely devoid of any science.

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10 hours ago, Sabre said:

The media seems completely focused on the fear factor of covid and almost completely devoid of any science.

"If we don't do what I say 14,000 NZers will die" - Jacinda Ardern since March, still at it again only a few days ago.

The key word being 'Will'.

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