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Corona virus statistics and reality

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1 hour ago, harrytom said:

A few here know what i do for income.I am very glad to be home/lockdown etc I would in a vulnerable position like a shop assistant is at the supermarket,No idea who you are mixing with or who they mixed with or they have mixed with etc. The police/millitary need to be acting stronger,enforcing those aimlessly driving around to go home or be locked up.The old Mt Eden jail would fine,stone walls etc they could infect themselves and Darwin would be at work.

Had reason to call 105 this morning and in a very timely matter the police were there removing people from a property,no idea how many were drink driving,The police are back over there now must getting the finer details??

Nah, they're probably giving them a Stern talking to.

We had a family of scrotums/renters, across the street,  firing off with thier cars, stereos, etc 26/8.

The neighbours got together and 105'd them. Police came around three times with a wet bus ticket and eventually they got nabbed dangerous driving down the street when the police arrived to " talk the peace pipe " with them.

Cops are to soft on these guys. Yet the taxpayer neghbours pay for these pricks to do nothing all day and annoy everybody. 

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1 hour ago, harrytom said:

https://www.change.org/p/government-of-china-get-the-world-to-stop-chinese-animal-markets

 

If the practice does not stop we will back here in lockdown in a further 12 months.

Nah, they will give up and change the measurements.

Remember the infection rate is related to the test rate 

As of now we have done 26000 test for 800ish infections. If we did 58000  tests tommorow and got 1600 infections I would say "yay...we got this".

But . ...I bet we would get far more than 1600 ... And the Govt would panic and then what?....  Plan B...   We ain't got a plan B...

 

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3 minutes ago, Sailing NZ said:

Nah, they will give up and change the measurements.

Remember the infection rate is related to the test rate 

As of now we have done 26000 test for 800ish infections. If we did 58000  tests tommorow and got 1600 infections I would say "yay...we got this".

But . ...I bet we would get far more than 1600 ... And the Govt would panic and then what?....  Plan B...   We ain't got a plan B...

 

Hopefully we can get on top but if not ,where to next??

I know it would a costly exercise and you wouldnt get every person(like the census) but a simple door to door test of everyone?

We can all be carriers according to the article above and not know it,same as for meningitis/mennigecocal 

Plan B would have to be ,reinstate a Motuhi island type quarantine centre.

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3 hours ago, Black Panther said:

So KM in your opinion what death toll would justify the current measures?  Ball park figure will do.

That's a question that does tend to highlight your, and many others, double standards but as you asked so I'd say 50 there abouts or at least comparable with one of the many many other preventable reasons NZers die prematurely everyday. So far the virus has had a bit part in one persons death, unfortunate for sure but as my 85yo Mum said only yesterday, "it's probably better some of us seniors take a hit for the greater good of NZ's newer generations". She is talking in relation to the cost of this virus goings on, it is massive and will last for a long long time. While I'm not too sure I agree with her, as a general rule the senior seniors have been there done that and do seem to display a clarity around life most who are younger have yet to find, so maybe she is onto something.

That comment is being made in pampered 1% NZ for pampered 1% NZers to cope with. In most other countries the response would be different, actually in most other countries that question would not even have been asked. But as we tend do take great pride in trying to distort nature by spending a fortune on protecting the weak, infirm and plainly stupid I knew it would be.

6 hours ago, Sailing NZ said:

KM. The theory of the lock down is sound and should work. Unfortunately the policing and management of the plan/ theory is ..Re active rather proactive. Bridges mentioned testing testing testing a month ago

It's certainly be spun that way but logic says it's only a delaying tactic at very best. I'm fine and will be....until the lock down is off and the virus gets to go rouge again and we're all toast.

You'd have to be pretty thick not to agree with Bridges and the medicals as they are right and the PM is plainly wrong. How has the PM got any idea how things are going when her head is firming in the proverbial sand. Unless there is massive NZ wide testing no one has any idea where the virus is and how it is traversing. But like the PM's MO has been during most of this in a day or so she will have a light bulb moment of clarity and come up with a cunning plan to test far more widely.

I would say Govt but it appears the entire NZ Govt is 90% JA and 10% GR, it seems the other 60 people supposedly part of it have been an illusion this entire time. I know Twatford is real, even Wylie Coyote could run so many cock ups like he has, but do the rest actually exist?

Just stocking the fridge, I'll drop you a txt as I enter the river Scottie ;)  Maybe tomorrow after I pull the main off and put on it's new sail number and logo thingy.

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Yes the testing part is crucial, especially once the PM realises that there are probably masses of people being let in and showing no symptoms.  Until such time as it is eliminated we will just go through waves of reinfections as we have no immunity, none, nada.  Even in we eliminate it we will have to strictly quarantine everyone who enters the country until there is a vaccine.  We still seem to be playing fast and loose on this aspect.

7 days ago the "worse case" was 80,000 deaths, then yesterday was 37,000.  How many will we end up with on our current path?  No one knows or says. 

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14 minutes ago, Knot Me... maybe said:

as you asked so I'd say 50 there abouts or at least comparable with one of the many many other preventable reasons NZers die prematurely everyday.". 

So what would you do if you were the govt and only one person had died but all the expert advice you were receiving was that some tens of thousands would die if you didn't take these measures? 

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10 minutes ago, Knot Me... maybe said:

That's a question that does tend to highlight your, and many others, double standards but as you asked so I'd say 50 there abouts or at least comparable with one of the many many other preventable reasons NZers die prematurely everyday. So far the virus has had a bit part in one persons death, unfortunate for sure but as my 85yo Mum said only yesterday, "it's probably better some of us seniors take a hit for the greater good of NZ's newer generations". She is talking in relation to the cost of this virus goings on, it is massive and will last for a long long time. While I'm not too sure I agree with her, as a general rule the senior seniors have been there done that and do seem to display a clarity around life most who are younger have yet to find, so maybe she is onto something.

That comment is being made in pampered 1% NZ for pampered 1% NZers to cope with. In most other countries the response would be different, actually in most other countries that question would not even have been asked. But as we tend do take great pride in trying to distort nature by spending a fortune on protecting the weak, infirm and plainly stupid I knew it would be.

It's certainly be spun that way but logic says it's only a delaying tactic at very best. I'm fine and will be....until the lock down is off and the virus gets to go rouge again and we're all toast.

You'd have to be pretty thick not to agree with Bridges and the medicals as they are right and the PM is plainly wrong. How has the PM got any idea how things are going when her head is firming in the proverbial sand. Unless there is massive NZ wide testing no one has any idea where the virus is and how it is traversing. But like the PM's MO has been during most of this in a day or so she will have a light bulb moment of clarity and come up with a cunning plan to test far more widely.

I would say Govt but it appears the entire NZ Govt is 90% JA and 10% GR, it seems the other 60 people supposedly part of it have been an illusion this entire time. I know Twatford is real, even Wylie Coyote could run so many cock ups like he has, but do the rest actually exist?

Just stocking the fridge, I'll drop you a txt as I enter the river Scottie ;)  Maybe tomorrow after I pull the main off and put on it's new sail number and logo thingy.

Yip, that's a fair assumption you make there.

The Bloomfield dude admits there is no plan B, and Plan A has no accurate measure of the problems scale of infection and transfer....thus no solution.

So if plan A is wrong and B is non existent there is only one course they can take...

This smells of a Kiwi build "we're building 10,000 homes" Twatford master class effort with drastic consequences here...

 

I guess he will not need to build houses when their will be so many sales due to the deaths that will follow.

I feel a bit sorry for Jacinda, she is putting on a brave face and Staunch attitude but her advisors are not up to scratch and her speech writers cannot spin her out if this reality 

 

. .after all getting together another lot of "working groups" to have "conversations" will not cut the mustard in this situation.

 

Oh and I don't feel sorry for Jacinda. Her bluff and bravado courtesy of the spin doctors has met their match!....

Labours new logo...  " can't do this"

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Not sure how we can be talking in terms of a Plan B when there is clearly no Plan A.

For reasons not published (maybe the barely credible study from Otago university) the government was panicked into calling the Level 4 lockdown last week.

The only plan Cindy has had this year was for the Christchurch hugfest. There is a story circulating that this was only called off at the last minute because Dr Bloomfield told her in no uncertain terms he would resign if it was not cancelled.

So in lockdown the government is just flying by the seat of their pants, making it up as they go:

  • The definitions of essential services keep changing eg Halal butchers now "essential" FFS
  • The changing definitions of how/where you can go to exercise
  • the lack of a proper quarantine management plan for incoming international arrivals
  • the inconsistent approach to testing, until now only people with a history of travel have been tested (see Wheels post a week ago about person with symptoms being knocked back, one of many examples)
  • the moving target definition for recovery, now it is 48 hrs without symptoms, which does not match any other country's or WHO's definition

so if the stats published in NZ are meaningless, how can an informed decision be made on whether to end or continue the lockdown.

Then the question needs to asked, as KM has already mentioned, what are we actually trying to prevent?

We are assailed with the stats from Italy which is in a terrible situation, but when you consider Italy's own health data states only 12% of deaths were directly as a result of the Chinese virus, then we need to start thinking if a more considered approach is needed to manage the virus, which will always be a part of our lives. See

https://www.ft.com/content/f3796baf-e4f0-4862-8887-d09c7f706553

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/witchburning-cure-will-be-deadlier-than-the-virus/news-story/9a37a8529ac9e1265aadad2b6ecde70b

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