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Boating now heavily restricted

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10 hours ago, ScottiE said:

 

And so I put it to you that our current plan in all likelihood will be one of the most costly options we could have taken and it will only take us longer to get there.  Unless of course we isolate ourselves from the rest until someone develops a vaccine, which for a coronavirusehas happened, never in modern history (see SARS and MERS). 

 

This is particularly relevant. Are we going to exist in our own bubble of 4.? million, with incredibly difficult travel both in & out of NZ, and do almost no business with the rest of the world?

While I don't pretend to have the answers to how we should do this, the future looks pretty bleak for our economy? 

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1 hour ago, Bad Kitty said:

This is particularly relevant. Are we going to exist in our own bubble of 4.? million, with incredibly difficult travel both in & out of NZ, and do almost no business with the rest of the world?

While I don't pretend to have the answers to how we should do this, the future looks pretty bleak for our economy? 

If we stick to the "zero tolerance" for Wuhan coronavirus in NZ as the PM pivoted to earlier this week, then we have no choice but to exist in our bubble for the foreseeable future.  There will be little exceptions around the fringe - you might be able to take the boat to the Cook Is. for example (mandatory Boating reference), or other Pacific nations that have also implemented the self-imprisonment policy, but there will be no ducking across to LA, or NY for a week's R&R, no quick business trips to HK, KL etc etc.  Nothing unless you are willing to go into mandatory, monitored self-isolation on return. 

However, despite one of our largest industies (tourism and hospo) being decimated and likely to remain so for some time,  we do have a significant export industry which will need to be allowed to expand.  The stupid restrictions on mining etc should be relaxed (they won't while this current govt. is in "power").  Our construction industry will also pick up and carry on pretty much as before by the time where in L2 or 1.  So we are in better shape than a lot of other countries. 

But we're all going to get this virus (15% of greater NY already have had it) eventually. It will be a bit like a nasty year of influenza and perhaps 0.1% of the pop will die - 5000 people - maybe more maybe less (again watch this).  We might spread that over a year or three and our current PM can then think she's operated in a manner that's "kind" rather than "weak".  I wish I could draw cartoons - picture a gorrila (NZ not JA, that would be unkind!) having locked himself in his cage, thrown away the key, with a pile of sugar cane just out of reach.

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48 minutes ago, ScottiE said:

But we're all going to get this virus (15% of greater NY already have had it) eventually. It will be a bit like a nasty year of influenza and perhaps 0.1% of the pop will die - 5000 people - maybe more maybe less (again watch this).  We might spread that over a year or three and our current PM can then think she's operated in a manner that's "kind" rather than "weak".  I wish I could draw cartoons - picture a gorrila (NZ not JA, that would be unkind!) having locked himself in his cage, thrown away the key, with a pile of sugar cane just out of reach.

I just want to clarify, what is it you are advocating we do?

The way I read your post, are you advocating a 'let it run, survival of the fittest strategy'?

But I don't want to jump to conclusions. Apologies, no references to marine in my post. 

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I posted this elsewhere but it sort of covers your question:

A vaccine like what everyone wants is pretty much hypothetical, safe with high effectiveness, rarely happened before why should this be any different?

Current Flu vaccines barely register as effective, certainly not enough to let loose a deadly virus on, and there have been a number of safety issues along the way.

Other recent vaccine experiments have had some questionable results, HPV, SARS.

I would like to see a bit more narrative on treatments as an effective measure too in the absence off a miracle vaccine. There are a number of drugs that seem to help people get through the illness, I think this is realistically going to have to be an acceptable way forward to opening borders.

These sort of viruses tend to mutate to become less deadly, it helps their own survival. Just another flu may not be far off the mark in the long run ( definitely not yet, don't take this the wrong way)

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1 minute ago, BOIGuy said:

Everything is about COVID now whether you like it or not

Yes but only it’s boating-related Covid discussion then talk about it here. If it’s not please don’t and take it to Smalltalk. I’m being very polite / kind in my request!

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8 minutes ago, Fish said:

I just want to clarify, what is it you are advocating we do?

The way I read your post, are you advocating a 'let it run, survival of the fittest strategy'?

But I don't want to jump to conclusions. Apologies, no references to marine in my post. 

No - its a fair question.  It's clearly absolutely vital to protect the vulnerable as much as they themselves will permit (we live with a state funded hospital system so there caveats with that). Yet another person has died in Chch overnight from the Rosewood rest home - that's 10 deaths from that one facility out of country total of 17!  So in that respect we do what ever it takes to look after vulnerable people as much as we can.  If that means state funded holidays or boat trips (see it can be done!), boat trips to holidays on islands, etc etc then so be it. Boating and the sea is a great therapy (have I done enough to pass the moderators!). Close monitoring etc etc.  All these measures come at a significan cost but will pale in comparison the money we are currently borrowing.

But here's the other problem, and I'll use my own personal circumstances to illustrate.  My father lives in similar facility to Rosewood, he and his fellow residents will fall to this in much the same way.  However until I get this virus, once or twice and develop sufficient anti-bodies, there is no way I'll be able to see Dad again, despite being his EPoA - that's just a fact.  It is irrational because I can tell you that the one thing that people like my father need the most, is the one thing they are being deprived of and that is company and personal contact with people they recognise for comfort.  This goes for anyone with a disability, those with cerabal palsy who visit our office building daily but now can't, or those who are blind who can't get into the institue across the road.  The human cost to the vulnerable is just immense.

Remember this also, the "let it run, survival of the fitest strategy" is exactly what we do, every year with respect to influenza, with no idea whether this year's influenza will kill 500, 1000, 2000.

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When someone does get the virus and develop antibodies will these:

a. Protect them from re-infection

b. Super sensitize them to new infection so you get smacked harder in round 2 (think dengue fever which many cruisers are sadly familiar)

c. Absolutely no idea what effect it will have (perhaps the honest answer with current knowledge?)

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1. "The Economy" is not a thing. https://kmccready.wordpress.com/2014/02/18/open-letter-to-colin-james-cc-rod-oram/

The world, COVID or not, is a place of abundance. If we share our toys nicely everyone benefits.

COVID provides us with a wonderful opportunity to reset how we run the world. Big improvements for the majority are possible if we have the political will to make them and the intellectual honesty to reassess our notions of how the world should run.

2. If you want to speak on behalf of disabled people and you're not disabled you should be very very careful. In particular don't make generalisations about all disabled people.

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