Guest Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 I think this thread and subject has exhausted. OC Quote Link to post Share on other sites
B00B00 320 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 I wonder if the biggest issue in the boat market is that there are just simply less buyers in the mid range 25-40ft boat market. Its just getting harder and harder for people to afford boat ownership. I have been watching it for a long time deciding what boat to get next. I reckon there is a big train wreck about to happen in the boat market. Just so many of each class on the market. Look at the popular designs, marauders, whiting 29s, davo 28s, lotus 9.2, lotus 10.6, F1020, Y88..... there are literally hundreds of them for sale. 2 years ago there were zero marauders on the market, now there are 6-7. Many people who used to have mid sized boats have steped up to a new of second hand modern production boat and this leaves a big gap behind them. Everyone is so much busier in their lives, disposable time and income is down and luxury items like boats are just getting unachievable for most people. Too many boats-too few buyers. Its gonna crash and crash hard. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Black Panther 1,723 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 I think MB is describing me Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 A big drop in price would be good. It will open the door for some to get into a boat where some of the silly prices demanded in some areas have blocked them out. Too true Motorbike you crusty old thing you. I was looking around while doing a couple of regattas this year and commented on the amount of grey or no hair to be seen, seems to be way more these days then there was. But old crusties like Motorbike and myself (at an extreme push obviously) do come from a generation where a state of the art high cost toy was a Tonka truck so we made sh*t with a few sticks and twigs, fugitively speaking. Our kids just don't seem to want to do sticks and twigs, only things iLike. Also they have been very heavily marketed too that all yachting is more boring than watching grass grow unless you do it on a 72ft foiling Cat at 40kts. So it's no surprise they don't even bother trying to aspire to boating, they are well aware they are never likely to be able to afford 100 million to buy one. But if the price drops enough on the old shitters some will jump in I'm sure. maybe too late for many boats but a few will be saved. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
sow1ld 2 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Our yacht Club is like that. There seems to be more funerals than anything else. I brought my first keel boat nearly ten years ago and I was the youngest owner on our race track. Fast forward a few years... and I'm still the youngest. The only members the boat club seems to be attracting is fizz boats so they can use the launching ramp. My bestie just brought a farr 1020 & already the shock the bills rolling in for it has given him a reality check! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Island Time 1,286 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 That will be an issue. Many won't be able to afford the ongoing maintenance - even if the purchase price has halved, maintenance will be the same. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Atom Ant 0 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Everyone is so much busier in their lives, disposable time and income is down and luxury items like boats are just getting unachievable for most people. Couldn't agree more Booboo. Scary thought that the train wreck is about to happen, cos I thought it already had. It's gonna get worse? But the real killer was maintenance costs as the powers that be make it harder and more expensive to maintain your boat. I'm really talking about boats that live full time in the water here. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
sow1ld 2 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Can the train wreck hit a couple of cookson 50 first! Wouldn't mind one of those bad boys Quote Link to post Share on other sites
BNG 54 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 You guys have done a fantastic job of talking the AWB market down as this thread will surely index highly on the search engines and prospective buyer that cant form their own opinion will absorb this. Excellent. Good boats still sell, crappers don't. The proportion of crappers has increased as the fleet ages and people play xbox instead of gaining the skills to maintain them themselves cost effectively/sail them. Regulation round grids,hardstands etc. Moorings/Marinas hasnt helped AWB's are disposable and like the classic fleet its only those with great pedigree and build quality that will be preserved. The boating boom of the 70's/80's has also created a huge bulge of very average white boats, many of which deserve to be binned. The good ones wont be. Natural attrition But at the moment you all sound like Bernard Hickey predicting a hard landing in AKL property 5 years ago. When I talk to the trade there is a positive hum going on, a few biggish programmes, more maintenance than normal. The economy is (relatively speaking) starting to crank up and the above is a sure sign to me. However this is just doom and gloom and runs the risk of become self prophesysing. Sow1d - in order to buy the Cookson 50 I assume you would be selling the Cav in the same market to partially fund it...? Good luck given the sentiment in this thread. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 You guys have done a fantastic job of talking the AWB market down as this thread will surely index highly on the search engines and prospective buyer that cant form their own opinion will absorb this. Excellent. Good boats still sell, crappers don't. The proportion of crappers has increased as the fleet ages and people play xbox instead of gaining the skills to maintain them themselves cost effectively/sail them. Regulation round grids,hardstands etc. Moorings/Marinas hasnt helped AWB's are disposable and like the classic fleet its only those with great pedigree and build quality that will be preserved. The boating boom of the 70's/80's has also created a huge bulge of very average white boats, many of which deserve to be binned. The good ones wont be. Natural attrition But at the moment you all sound like Bernard Hickey predicting a hard landing in AKL property 5 years ago. When I talk to the trade there is a positive hum going on, a few biggish programmes, more maintenance than normal. The economy is (relatively speaking) starting to crank up and the above is a sure sign to me. However this is just doom and gloom and runs the risk of become self prophesysing. Sow1d - in order to buy the Cookson 50 I assume you would be selling the Cav in the same market to partially fund it...? Good luck given the sentiment in this thread. Well said Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Island Time 1,286 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Well, I agree with that as well. The fact is, everything else aside, building a low volume of boats up to 50 ft here in NZ is not going to happen. IMO because of the imports setting entry level pricing, for entry level boats, that are practical, but may not be durable. Every industry is going through, or has been through, the same issues. Our society is way more disposable than it was, and requiring a much higher level of comfort. For costs to halve, is unrealistic. The (old) boats cannot be replaced for anything like their current values, let alone halving them! The number of middle class with enough disposable income for a boat has reduced. Good boats will still sell. What's important for us is what is the cost of upgrading, unless you are retiring from boating. I do think the total number of boats will reduce, over the next 20 years, possibly reducing owners costs in the long run - or keeping them static for an extended period. There are simply not enough sailors out there who may want a boat. It will be interesting to see what really happens.... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Changed 10 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Has anyone one a real web search on a decent race boat. Search the Pogo 850 and see just how cheap an imported race boat would be (circa 1998 -2001). Cheap boats are for a reason. I know just how much can be spent on a sub 30 footer. http://www.yachtworld.com/boats/2002/St ... -Polynesia Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 I spoke to a boat surveyor a week ago and he tells me he is flat out surveying at the moment. There are more boats changing hands now then there were 6 months ago. Come summer time I think there will be a rush to buy the well priced boats and the people waiting will miss out. Time will tell Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Black Panther 1,723 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 You can't have mine, it's not for sale. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
sow1ld 2 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Bng: Im pretty sure a forum doesn't have to ability to influence the market for "awb" most people in a position to buy awb will be well aware of the state of the market. A quick chat to a broker will leave them in doubts if they had any to begin with. With regards to the cookson I was being humorous! Relax a little Trading from one boat to another is all about the remaning balance between the two. If I could get a cookson 50 for half what they are asking for them they could have the Cav for free. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
BNG 54 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Bng: Im pretty sure a forum doesn't have to ability to influence the market for "awb" most people in a position to buy awb will be well aware of the state of the market. A quick chat to a broker will leave them in doubts if they had any to begin with. With regards to the cookson I was being humorous! Relax a little Trading from one boat to another is all about the remaning balance between the two. If I could get a cookson 50 for half what they are asking for them they could have the Cav for free. I disagree and all this negative sentiment wont help, this thread will index well with the search engines and even if only 100 people read it as a result of a search thats 100 people dead set on going and kicking someones head in for a bargain, or that's their expectation. This is just another form of media but far more readily available and searchable (ongoing ad infinitum until the server craps out) to those with similar search criteria. Based on the assumption that you make that "most people will be well aware of the market" then they will also be aware that many brokers are full of it and really good ones are few and far between. So who does the broker work for again? The vendor. Their job is to maximise vale for the vendor - not talk the value of the market down. If there's brokers running around talking the market down like you lot then thats pretty sh*t for their clients - the vendors and the market as a whole. I got the humour in the Cookson 50 point. And the irony. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
B00B00 320 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Well on the positive side, its a good time to be upgrading. That's why my boat is on the market! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
BNG 54 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Exactly BooBoo, and I agree there will some carnage in the market but not undeserved, there is a lot of massively overpriced crap on the market. I guess I'm seeing two brand new to boating boat owners on G Pier in the last few months and the marine trades fairly upbeat at a time of year its usually pretty grim. Those two would have collectively spent 400k+ on AWBs in the last few months. Thats on one pier. Just as an exercise perhaps Island time could quantify of the 41,000 + page views of this thread the number of veiws and count of lurkers other than regular posters in this thread to give an indication of the actual reach of what is a somewhat negative thread. Rather than just 'thinking' it doesnt have an impact we may well be surprised. There is cash kicking around town believe me, the corporate hospitality business is really kicking into gear which is a sure sign. Boat owners with their taste in their arse trying to sell clapped out crappers for far too much money will take a hammering. Great value well maintained boats like the Cordite will sell. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
sow1ld 2 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 I still don't see that this forum will have any effect on the state of the 2nd hand boat market. Most people are aware that boat prices have fallen and that there are plenty of supposed "bargian's" out there long before we started chatting honestly about it. I have only met a couple of good broker's most seem to work for themselves and making a sale is cash in their pocket so more important than preserving the market. I agree there are some real dreamers on trade me expecting big money for some pretty average boat's. The good well maintained boat's will sell but it takes time to get through all the stupidly low offers who expect a bargin. That's not this forums doing that's just a sign of the times There's a big difference from wanting to sell your boat and having to sell you boat Quote Link to post Share on other sites
BNG 54 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Negative sentiment in mass media doesn't help. This is not a closed forum, it's new Zealand's most popular sailing forum. I won't tell you how to run a lathe...media and PR are my business and one of the tactics my clients use is forum activity as a part of their media mix, because it works. And I don't mean muppets posting blatant ads. They build identies and begin sensible conversations, because it works... In skewing popular opinion. Just turn an extra couple of thou of that shaft will ya? It won't make any difference, it's only a few thou....can't make any difference, can it? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.