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What if...?


What if...?  

30 members have voted

  1. 1. It's early Jan 2022, you're out on your summer cruise enjoying perfect weather and the govt announces another L3/4 lockdown and orders everyone to "go home". What do you do?

    • Stay out on the water as long as possible
      18
    • Rush back in, re-provision and head back out again as long as possible
      5
    • Come straight back in and go home
      7


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6 minutes ago, Island Time said:

This is what happened in NSW. Now, according to their medical people, delta is unstoppable, and their medical system will be overwhelmed in the next few weeks. It will be interesting to see what actually develops there…

IT, its a real mess, I think that we just have to get out vax rate up but there will probably be a version of L2, mask mandates, distancing  etc for considerable period of time. L4, L3 to Christmas? I really hope not.  

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1 minute ago, Black Panther said:

Truth is any boat out on the hauraki gulf will stick out like dogs balls and there's hundreds of little old ladies watching through their telescopes. You wouldn't last 2 days without a visit from Deodar.

Nice imagery there BP :) 

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24 minutes ago, darkside said:

Usually keep our boat in HMB. Currently in a shed in Mt Maunganui and we won't take it to Auckland this summer. Too much risk of no boating at all if we did. I assume Mercurys to Tutukaka non stop would be OK with the current levels?

You can travel through the Auckland region for a number of specific purposes, the same purposes that are allowing vehicles to travel from Northland to south of the Bombays (and vice versa) allow you to travel via water through the Auckland region.

If for another reason that isn't in the "allowed list", then you'd technically need to stay 12Nm east of the barrier and (I think) clear the Mokes by 12nm as well - if they are part of Auckland.

Edit: actually it's a slightly bigger area, with an annoying bit to avoid.  But like I say - "technically".  I doubt you'd run into any resistance going around the back of barrier.

Council map

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44 minutes ago, Island Time said:

Nope, don’t agree. The rules are the rules, and it’s up to the police to enforce them, not decide what’s right and wrong. Remember the rules are made for the lowest common denominator, and we have seen more frequent breaches, and arrests so far, as the lockdown goes on.

So, IMO the rules are either altered or not. If not, the police are required to check and enforce.

I think you have missed my point a little IT, yes the Police must enforce the rules, but the rules are not the rules. This is in the context that the govt, being cabinet, and the DG of Health, are making up and changing the rules on a regular (weekly) basis.

If there were wide spread arrests then this would apply political pressure to cabinet to change or amend the rules - on the basis that they aren't working by virtue of the numbers of arrests. To be clear, I'm not thinking of crack-pot conspiracy theorists protesting in Aotea square. I'm thinking of otherwise law abiding people wanting to go about their daily lives, while giving due consideration to the risks of covid and the pandemic. 

Examples being butchers offering click and collect, surfing at Orewa Beach (the safest place to surf in Auckland) or accomplished world cruisers moving onto their boat for a 1 month summer holiday.

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2 hours ago, Fogg said:

I know it happened last year but this year the whole dynamic is different which is why I’m curious to gauge the new mood.

There was no lock down over Xmas  -New year last year, Cindy had to wait until after Waitangi Day then slapped a couple on us in Feb/March.... 

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Its funny you mention catastrophizing Pysche. It is something I am personally conscious of, and try to stop myself when I'm going down that path.

But then, today we have 24 new cases, 3 unlinked, 1 a prisoner. Yesterday there was 6 infectious in the community, Friday was 7 infectious in the community.

The prisoner did not come forward for testing, he was tested on remand. This is very similar to people turning up at Middlemore for unrelated health issues and being found to be positive. That, and the numbers of 'infectious in the community' is clearly sub-optimal.

Whilst I try not to catastophize, sometimes I like to try and anticipate where things are heading, and what will happen. kind of like yacht racing or seamanship, try to anticipate the source of the next issue or opportunity, and capatalise on it, or address it.

Given the stats above, am I catastrophizing, or being a realist?

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By my calcs if we average 50,000 jabs / day we could reach the 90% target in 10 weeks. So even if we were held at L3 until we reach this magic 90% then we could all expect to get a drop down to L2 and go boating again by late Nov / early Dec.

It’s possible that L3 compliance might improve if someone would actually give us some specifics like this so we could reduce some of the current uncertainty - and see some light at the end of the tunnel in terms of Christmas & summer hols.

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1 hour ago, Fish said:

Given the stats above, am I catastrophizing, or being a realist?

The former is faulty thinking, the latter is risk assessment based on the information to hand.  Realism as opposed to fantasy, yes you're a realist!

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9 hours ago, B00B00 said:

Similar to mine! (Sorry for the thread drift)

 

My fault, sorry :-)

Hint: the Gulf Stream helps a lot.

I have a colleague from Tromsö located at N69 plus change. Still ice-free. I don't think Norway has any icebreakers. In the Bay of Botnia and the Gulf of Finland icebreakers is a must have most years.

/Martin

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11 hours ago, MartinRF said:

My fault, sorry :-)

Hint: the Gulf Stream helps a lot.

I have a colleague from Tromsö located at N69 plus change. Still ice-free. I don't think Norway has any icebreakers. In the Bay of Botnia and the Gulf of Finland icebreakers is a must have most years.

/Martin

You’re from Sweden - you must know Erik?

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I've sailed in Helsinki - in August though not January. Very nice blocks of granite everywhere. Islands set up with DIY barbeque hut and sauna.

Very long days. You could go for a day sail at lunchtime and still be out 10 hours before sunset.

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Yeah it looks great cruising up there. A refreshing change from the bikinis & reef snorkelling of the tropics. One of my fav sailing vlogs (NBJS) just had to abandon his passage towards Greenland and return to Haugesund after getting Covid somewhere between the Norwegian coast and the Faroes. Which goes to show even single-handed sailors cruising some of the remotest parts of world are catching it now.

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9 hours ago, DoT said:

I've sailed in Helsinki - in August though not January. Very nice blocks of granite everywhere. Islands set up with DIY barbeque hut and sauna.

Very long days. You could go for a day sail at lunchtime and still be out 10 hours before sunset.

You think the days in August are long?

That is when people here start to lament the shortening of the day.

/Martin

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Actually, it must have been July. I was there a month, arriving the day before midsummer - bonfire night.

For a country covered in forest they really love the open fire.

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8 hours ago, DoT said:

Actually, it must have been July. I was there a month, arriving the day before midsummer - bonfire night.

For a country covered in forest they really love the open fire.

Day before midsummer must be June.

Fire bans are in force when it is deemed too dry.

/Martin

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