Kestrahl 10 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 It would be interesting to compare the AVS keel up and down with other super yachts. Without knowing anything I would have thought these boats would have a AVS > 90deg with keel up and sails down. The alloy mast also has to be a factor compared to having a carbon rig. Sounds like an unsafe design to me. Sad for the captain, wonder if he knew how unsafe his boat was with the keel raised. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CarpeDiem 510 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 1 hour ago, Kestrahl said: It would be interesting to compare the AVS keel up and down with other super yachts. Without knowing anything I would have thought these boats would have a AVS > 90deg with keel up and sails down. The alloy mast also has to be a factor compared to having a carbon rig. Sounds like an unsafe design to me. Sad for the captain, wonder if he knew how unsafe his boat was with the keel raised. The only source for these numbers seems to be a single FT article and we know that the media is very good at getting things wrong. According to the orc database, it is 115degrees and the ship held a Category 0 rating, so the ship was rated to sail anywhere in the world in any weather. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Black Panther 1,701 Posted August 26 Author Share Posted August 26 There's a retired designer on fb who was involved in many superyacht projects. He's run the numbers and comes up with 88deg and some really big hatches underwater. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CarpeDiem 510 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 1 hour ago, Black Panther said: There's a retired designer on fb who was involved in many superyacht projects. He's run the numbers and comes up with 88deg and some really big hatches underwater. Thanks BP. I was concerned at the lack of an authoritative source in the public domain for the boat. This retired designers fb post completely puts my concerns to rest. 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
LBD 170 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 I am guessing the big question will not be stability so much as preparedness. With advance warning of the approaching weather front, was sufficient preparation made. hatches closed, water tight bulk heads sealed, tanks pressed up full or empty to minimise free surface stability effects and so on to prevent or control flooding? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
waikiore 451 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Advanced warning ?? Where did you hear that 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
LBD 170 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 18 minutes ago, waikiore said: Advanced warning ?? Where did you hear that Was on the news... local fishermen were all prepared. So the other question will be, did the weather message get transmitted to all ships and should it have been heard. Storm warning system fell short, meteorologist says Lowinski, who also specialises in weather warning communication, says that safety should also be in the spotlight. “This particular storm system could already be seen about three hours before the disaster happened, far to the NW of Sicily,” he tells Euronews Green. “While local-scale severe weather, waterspouts, downbursts, etc. are always challenging to pinpoint and forecast, the risk was there and should have been communicated through all necessary channels, even in the middle of the night (which is when many people are asleep and unaware of approaching danger). Quote Link to post Share on other sites
K4309 358 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 50 minutes ago, LBD said: Was on the news... local fishermen were all prepared. You wouldn't be implying MSM is any more reliable than FB? That particular weather forecaster, Lowinski, also made statements that all the passengers should have been dragged out of bed at 4am, put in Lifejackets and made to stand in the rain, as a safety precaution. Not sure what qualifies a weather forecaster to make such statements, other than a PhD in Hindsight. PS, it is curious to note that an increasing majority of MSM stories and leads are now based off information X'ed on X. The rest of MSM content appears to be AI produced now. I do understand the mirth at 'sources on FB', but it doesn't conversely mean sources on MSM are reliable. Some are, many aren't. PPS, I imagine the local fishermen were simply looking out the window, the one I saw interviewed had gone down to the harbour to see if it was calm enough to go for a fish, i.e. 'local observations'. Instead of using the latest high tech weather satellite, he may have been using a mark one eyeball Quote Link to post Share on other sites
waikiore 451 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Thats the same local fisherman -who said she had lost a mast -I saw that interview. The two big boats anchored near her were spun about and anchor dragged but that was all, much like the Westhaven event ie extremely local and impossible to predict. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Black Panther 1,701 Posted August 27 Author Share Posted August 27 4 hours ago, CarpeDiem said: Thanks BP. I was concerned at the lack of an authoritative source in the public domain for the boat. This retired designers fb post completely puts my concerns to rest. Go to fb and search Tad Roberts. He did alot of work with S&S. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
harrytom 679 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 read it went stern first,does that means rear launching deck open? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CarpeDiem 510 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 32 minutes ago, Black Panther said: Go to fb and search Tad Roberts. He did alot of work with S&S. I found this written by Tad Roberts: The head of the Italian Sea Group, parent of the builder Perini, has stated Bayesian had positive stability to 73 degrees with the board up and 88 degrees with the board down. In the same post, written by Tad Roberts I find: The boat would meet or exceed stability regulatory requirements with the centreboard retracted and sails down. CONFUSING!!!! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Black Panther 1,701 Posted August 27 Author Share Posted August 27 The posts are 4 days apart. More data=different conclusions. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CarpeDiem 510 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 1 minute ago, Black Panther said: The posts are 4 days apart. More data=different conclusions. Both those quotes are in the same post. No where does he say that wouldn't meet the regulatory requirements. So I guess having a AVS of 73 degrees meets said requirements... Another designer in the same thread says you could epxect that boat to capsize at 50degrees as it's already on it's way. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
K4309 358 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 1 hour ago, harrytom said: read it went stern first,does that means rear launching deck open? I read that it went down bow first. What we can conclude from this is there is an even chance that your sources is right and my source is wrong, or: Your source is wrong and my source is right. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jon 395 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 look at the unlockable saloon doors and the large cutout on side deck ? 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
K4309 358 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 1 hour ago, CarpeDiem said: I found this written by Tad Roberts: The head of the Italian Sea Group, parent of the builder Perini, has stated Bayesian had positive stability to 73 degrees with the board up and 88 degrees with the board down. In the same post, written by Tad Roberts I find: The boat would meet or exceed stability regulatory requirements with the centreboard retracted and sails down. CONFUSING!!!! I think the stability requirements are the classification society requirements, not the requirements as per the laws of physics to keep it afloat. I know it is only a song, but it does remind me of the esteemed and highly regarded data by one Mr Frederick Dagg, that the boat met the minimum crewing requirements, of one, and had very stringent design and materials requirements. No cardboard. No cardboard derivatives... Jokes aside, the only plausible explanation I can think of for a boat like that sinking in a water spout is that it was laid flat, exceeded it's AVS and capsized. We do know (without reference to FB or MSM experts) that it had the tallest mast in the world, the mast was alloy (so not carbon, and comparatively heavy), and that of the 12 or 15 sister ships, the rest are all ketches, and therefore have lower C of G of the rig. We know it is entirely plausible a water spout or down burst can lay a yacht like that over flat, cause we've seen it on CCTV from Westhaven. The AVS data appears to come from the Chairman of Italian Sea Group. So it all adds up. The only inconguity in all of that is that the Chairman of Italian Sea Group seems to think an AVS of 73 degs is good, where as it couldn't even get Cat 5 in NZ, hence why the yacht his company built is 50m under water and we are all talking about it. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CarpeDiem 510 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 52 minutes ago, Jon said: look at the unlockable saloon doors and the large cutout on side deck ? This seems to be on the money Jon. The designer BP quoted has also shown empirically that at around 60 degrees heel water will be gushing through these doors and down the stairs. If the boat is filling with water it really does not matter what the AVS numbers are. Guess we'll find out in a year. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Priscilla II 414 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 https://www.sailingscuttlebutt.com/2024/08/27/former-bayesian-captain-offers-insight/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook&fbclid=IwY2xjawE7BGNleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHcypw4JHR72LAifabcGGBYMN4tNEaIynP2F_xTLka6qaJm3moA5i9OFq5A_aem_lu7z7CHKo3RiR0xmAdy4Pw 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Black Panther 1,701 Posted August 27 Author Share Posted August 27 45 degrees? 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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