floatsome 0 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 now I see why they run this race every 10 years or so. Bloody bad luck that the weather has turned early ie back to the Tasman systems dominating = SW or S, front after front. Respect the guys out there thats for sure. Been away and just spotted that Stewarts track, whats the bet he completes the circle in the next few days.... Link to post Share on other sites
Fogg 427 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 The boats are all a long way off shore so there is plenty of room to turn and run if they need to.... Yeah but with the fleet 200-ish miles from Cook St by the time they arrive the chart above shows it blowing hard on the nose? Link to post Share on other sites
Justuts 0 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 The tracker model is still showing the low heading quite a bit further north, crossing Akl. I think this might be from the EC model, although possibly not the very latest run, which is now agreeing with the GFS and UKMO that the centre will cross pretty close to New Plymouth during the night tomorrow. Note that Metvuw uses GFS and of the 3, that is showing the highest wind speeds so with a bit of luck it wont be quite as bad as the latest MetVuw. Very tough situation for the back two, they are a long way off New Plymouth still, especially if it goes light ahead of the blow. At least they have some room if they end up hove to. Link to post Share on other sites
Fogg 427 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Note that Metvuw uses GFS and of the 3, that is showing the highest wind speeds so with a bit of luck it wont be quite as bad as the latest MetVuw. Metservice seem to be talking it up too (they mentioned 120km/h gusts for N Island on Sat) http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10789088 We're only 1 day into autumn for f@ck's sake Link to post Share on other sites
Grinna 2 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 We're only 1 day into autumn for f@ck's sake That doesn't mean much ... we completely missed summer. Link to post Share on other sites
Absolution 7 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 The boats are all a long way off shore so there is plenty of room to turn and run if they need to.... Yeah but with the fleet 200-ish miles from Cook St by the time they arrive the chart above shows it blowing hard on the nose? Who said anything about Cook strait? That's the last place you'd want to be with all that wind. I'm just talking about running downwind until the worst of it has gone thru. Much nicer than trying to beat into 40kts and big waves and still going backwards. I won't be surprised if you see some of the boats hove to during the worst of it. Link to post Share on other sites
Murky 1 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Now on the SSANZ site: RNZ Race Quick News Thurs 1st - a problem with Trackers on Surreal, Krakatoa 2, Peligian 2, Revs mean that their positions are NOT updating. Hopefully resetting will fix the problem once we speak with the boats. Also new in that K2 and Danaide are heading for Golden Bay to make repairs in sheltered water. Truxton and Coppelia not mentioned but the tracker would seem to indicate something to report from those boats. Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Rocket Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Golden Bay might be the plan? If they are going to NP then they have pretty much withdrawn haven't they? Has Coppellia broken something - would have thought they would be trucking along? Link to post Share on other sites
Absolution 7 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Golden Bay might be the plan? If they are going to NP then they have pretty much withdrawn haven't they? Has Coppellia broken something - would have thought they would be trucking along? I'd say Golden Bay would be the best option. Coppellia's tracker showing 3-4kts consistently and they are getting smoked by Sunstone so might be something wrong there. Link to post Share on other sites
B00B00 310 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I think some of these guys could be in a spot of bother..... truxton and Danaide have probably made a good call but they have to boot it. Predict wind has the system on them by midday tomorrow and they still have 160 miles or so to get to nelson with the wind coming on the nose, 19hrs at 7kts is only 133nm.... if you are not going to make it then being offshore is the best bet. rather have loads of sea room than tiderips and land to deal with. Golden bay has only one sheltered spot, Terakohe, its a fishermans harbour and im not sure what the facility's are like these days. It might be fine. Man this could be an ugly result for some of the boats, im worried. Really not nice. Link to post Share on other sites
Flatkat 1 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 NASTY ! Can someone tell that weather to go away and go crazy on some other country ? I feel like taking a sea sick pill in sympathy as I know I couldn't handle the conditions thats for sure! Fingers and toes crossed that everyone will be ok through the weekend Link to post Share on other sites
Changed 10 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 133 miles in the other direction would put them in better immediate patterns but will be really patchy later. Imagine being on the Thompson Booboo. Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Rocket Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Looks awful - have seen 50 knots at the top of the Tararuas already today (but that isn't unusual- saw 100knots when I was up there one day) Would want to be in the right boat methinks - the Farr38 would be nice as would the Cav 45. Apart from that hmmmmmm The formula 40 will be a bit damp. Link to post Share on other sites
Chill Pill 1 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I'm getting married on a beach in Auckland on Saturday Hope all the guys (and gal) out there get through the next 48hrs safely. Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Surreal will be alright as long as they tack onto port as the mircowave doesnt work so well when on startboard Seriously though hope the boys are looking after themselves, it was fitigue that got to us in the Cook Straight last year the boat copied with it no problems. But this is much worse Link to post Share on other sites
Murky 1 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Coppelia has joined those heading for shelter now - boatspeed up to 5.9 knots too, don't know what made the differnce after a day sitting around the 3 mark. Link to post Share on other sites
floatsome 0 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 any word on the front three yet? Revs would be a handful in these conditions if you didnt know the boat, hell of a way to learn ... Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I reckon, from my dry waterproof weather free armchair and taking a bit guess at where the C40, Revs and Benny could be, it would pay to make maximum south while sneaking a little inshore i.e. the same place the Cav and Sunstone appear to be going. If you can get a good whack south fast you should, looking at the forecasting I've been, pick up a good but shortish strong tail wind to give you a good nudge further south meaning the worst of it will pass behind you but there will still be plenty of yucky. Knot too sure I'd like to be in Golden Bay while this moves over the top so I'm of the mind the 3 heading in maybe going to cop more for longer and could be heading into a more uncomfortable situation than the above bunch/theory. Even if they can hook into some sheltered waters they are still gonna get hell winds. So sitting in my comfortable armchair with more inputs I think I'd be heading south instead. But taking an educated stab at what is probably being thought on the boats I can see why they are heading where they look to be. The Stewie and 1 Tonner are just fucked. A good tailwind for a wee while then a big slog into a stiff wind Bllaaaaaaaaa..............Wrap up tight lads and we all hope that all you come out the other side with is a bruised arse and hand cramp from hanging on so tight. It's going to be very interesting to see who, inc the weather, does what in the next 12 hrs odd. Link to post Share on other sites
Absolution 7 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 According the evening sched Krakatoa 2 has pulled out, Surreal is trucking south and nothing heard from Revs. I have plotted the scheds as follows: Link to post Share on other sites
B00B00 310 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 From my memory there really isn't any shelterd spots in golden bay other than tarakohe harbour which is just a smallish reclaimed harbor with a breakwall around and a couple of moorings and comercial wharf(it might have changed since?), the rest of the whole golden bay is just beach and farewell spit is very shallow on the inside for a long way out. Then even abel tasman has no real all weather anchorages, so the next closest would be nelson or grevlle harbour on durville island (have sat out a few nastys there). I tend to agree with KM, boot it south might be the best option but it allways looks easy from the couch! I just hope there are no big issues ouit there, good luck guys! Link to post Share on other sites
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