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How do you rate our chances


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Now it seems certain we will race OR for the cup, what are our chances (and why). Not your emotional response, just are we 50/50? 60/40? 70/30? or better.

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50:50, you just can't tell till they actually race.

That bear away at the top mark is impressive with no competition.

Imagine what it will be like with Oracle going around the other pin at the same time.

Tickets booked, can't wait

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60/40

 

I reckon Oracle have a slight advantage downwind but the kiwis are quicker upwind and that will be enough to bring the cup home. I wonder how many races will need to be completed before someone wins the cup?

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I would say our chances are good. Though Oracle have been looking really good lately and they have the speed, I think their boat cannot be pushed as hard and it will probably tell when the real racing starts.

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it would appear 70/30 in favour of etnz at the moment. the thing is though, its really a guess! oracle has not given us real vmg numbers yet, in the same wind etc as etnz. only a race will really tell. looking fwd to it.

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(95 %)

unless, the rules change at the last minute...the weather does wierd things....something breaks.....the crew strike for higher pay......the telly "rights" dont allow it.

Remember the pressure of the whole of Oz is upon the crew of our other Island !~

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I think we have a very good chance 70/30 in favour of tnz. real racing beats 2 boat training every time. especially seeing as LR have offered to now do 2 boat testing. this gives tnz best of both worlds.

also encouraging that they still have development to do on the boat.

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As for our chances, I really don't know but I would imagine it will be close ...we will see. However the fact that Luna Rossa is going to help tnz prepare seems like a serous benefit, just to practice sailing in second place (and over taking) if anything. Although with a clear speed advantage I think tnz wont have much trouble passing Luna Rossa. And how much will they learn from that? :?

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I'll go 50/50 because we have no real idea.

 

After watching a few races on tv including a couple of Oracle practise runs, my thoughts are that ETNZ look faster and smoother.

 

Despite what the commentators are saying about OR and ETNZ both foiling upwind, OR seem to sail a lot more bow down on the beats, compared to ETNZ lifting the bows with the foil. By lifting, I mean vertically, not into the breeze. Maybe OR is getting more vertical lift off the rudders?

 

The old multi sailor in me says bow down=fast, but I really have no idea how the use of foils affect that.

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Although with a clear speed advantage I think tnz wont have much trouble passing Luna Rossa. And how much will they learn from that? :?

 

Luna Rossa no longer has to remain in measurement trim - they can speed her up for the training exercises.

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Luna Rossa no longer has to remain in measurement trim - they can speed her up for the training exercises.

 

Ok, that would make scene but how much can they speed her up/ how much is the rule holding these boats back? Based on how dam fast they are going I would have thought there isn't much easy speed to gain.

All though I wonder if they could do something like swap out their foils for just up or downwind foils, so Luna Rossa could have a speed advantage in one mode?

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Although with a clear speed advantage I think tnz wont have much trouble passing Luna Rossa. And how much will they learn from that? :?

 

Luna Rossa no longer has to remain in measurement trim - they can speed her up for the training exercises.

 

Any ideas on how to do so?

 

Lead weight in the bows, longer spigots, larger king posts, perhaps? Seems the done thing.

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:lol: :lol: :lol:

 

The old way was to add sail area - could be alittle difficult with these beasts, and there probably isn't a lot of excess weight to be shed.

But I'm sure the boffins will come up with something.

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ETNZ could lend the Italians some go 'old' fast bits. Arguably this is all about the hydro package and clearly the LR package was not up to it.

 

You'd have to believe the sailors - with the right gear - are up to it, but maybe the belief wasn't there after the kicking they got earlier in the LV final series.

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I think it is going to be so much more valuable than mucking round out there on our own that:

a) it's going to add another layer of pressure to OTUSA - at a time when they need it least - to know that they will be facing the combined best knowledge of the challengers, and

B) on that note it's almost surprising that they haven't come up with some way of preventing it.

 

As the commentators noted at the time, it is a very generous gesture by the Italians. :clap:

 

Also think it is highly possible that Draper could prove to be a different helmsman with the pressure now off his shoulders.

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Honestly, I'm not sure that 100% of the problem lies with Draper. I suspect there are still some communication issues on that boat that compromise split second decision making and manoeuvres and while Francesco Bruni has bags of match racing experience, I don't think he's been particularly on the ball in this campaign.

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(95 %)

unless, the rules change at the last minute...the weather does wierd things....something breaks.....the crew strike for higher pay......the telly "rights" dont allow it.

Remember the pressure of the whole of Oz is upon the crew of our other Island !~

 

Not having a go at you at all here idler...

 

...but even in 95 when Black Magic was arguably the most superior boat in an America's Cup match in modern times (with the exception of the cat vs. the big boat that is) I don't think we were anywhere near 95% favoured then. I think it's nothing like that much in favour of eaither team.

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Here's hoping the day of the first race is pushing the wind limits so we can have some smoking fast action....and hopefully a big dose of whoop ass.

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