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sorry, missed answering the last question fully.  

Among other things, we took up sailing.  We used to fly overseas each year for a couple of weeks snowboarding in the northern hemisphere, and visit friends in Aussie once or twice a year.  Regardless of COVID, we decided late last year that this was no longer justifiable.  So we bought a cheap existing 32 footer and we are reducing our footprint by sailing locally (albeit with some diesel assistance). 

We have also increased our use of public transport for commuting and are working through upgrading insulation etc at home so we use less energy in heating.

Each of these is small.  In a global view they make no difference.  We would need to make wholesale drastic changes to our lifestyle to meet NZ's Paris commitments, and even more to meet what the world needs to just not have any more impact.  That level of change requires an overhaul of global economies and priorities.

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Wowwwww.... this Michael Shellenberger dude a brave bastard coming out and more so speaking out but one in a growing trend coming out saying the same thing....not that the mass public are allowed to k

Lots of both sided arguments, and the thread was started I believe by suggesting that global warming was being caused by population increase. Whether that is true or not, the elephant in the room, wh

you know IB, you come across incredibly arrogant in the above posting, sounding something like a school teacher who does not like the questions from an inquisitive student. As HT flagged a few posts a

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3 hours ago, aardvarkash10 said:

Both 1 and 2 are easy since answering the latter answers the former.

The broad global scientific concensus is that human activity is the biggest driver of climate chnge in the last 100 years.  Specifically our release of carbon (and toa lesser extent other gases) in large quantities into the atmosphere has led to a measurable and geophysically significant change in temperature. 

The scientific consensus is that, allowed to continue, the release of carbon (and to a lesser extent other gases) will lead to continuing increase in global temperatures such that the planet will not be able to maintain our current living environment.

Your statement that some science is being surpressed is not supported by the evidence.  Many alternative hypotheses to human causes have been and continue to be put forward.  To date, none of them have been supported by the majority of relevantly qualified scientists.  I'll repeat that with shorter words and slowly for your assistance - some people think its not humans doing this.  The people who are qualified disagree and still think its us.

Your last question is fraught.  The problem is so large now that individual action, while helpful, is largely irrelevant.  Drastic, immediate and ongoing global behaviour change is required.  What we are living now under COVID L3/2 is a good model for a start on what's needed.

That and more sailing.  Sailing is good because its relatively carbon-free and exposes us to the reality of our environment and climate.

Sorry dude but as much as I thought we'd finally found someone willing to answer the question and after 169 pages I got highly excited but then you blew it not only out the door but out into space with the completely nonsensical and unsupportable comment being  - Your statement that some science is being surpressed is not supported by the evidence.

Oh well, you had your chance to convince the fence sitter but like the rest you also have nothing of value, shame as I thought for a moment you did.

Can someone down tick this for BP please. I am trying to keep the post count down as he must be getting a f**king sore finger from all the stalking so be nice and give him a hand. Thanks.

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Put it up then, what science is being suppressed?

1 hour ago, It Got said:

...the completely nonsensical and unsupportable comment being  - Your statement that some science is being surpressed is not supported by the evidence.

By science, I mean material that has been published in a reputable and relevant journal with findings that have been repeated by independant bodies.

Youtube clips don't count.

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On 15/08/2020 at 9:34 AM, It Got said:

The other day you wrote off 1% as a nothing, insignificant, not even worthy of even commenting on yet today you think 0.0000008% is that significant it is worthy of comment.

Does that show how smart marketing can trump basic math? I think so.

 

Not getting involved in the discussion. Just a point about significance from a statistical theory perspective.

Significance is something that can be defined by hypotheses, and then tested, and is not only about the %. It depends massively on the data size, and the actual spread of data, the magnitudes of the variable being assessed. 

So 1% difference can be insignificant, or significant. Likewise, 0.0000008% difference can also be significant or not significant, and apparently these two values quoted are for different variables so there is no relationship between one being significant and the other not. Significance is irrespective of the effect of that difference outcome. 

I battle with this every day in my job. Some people wanting to call a 1 month change in life expectancy or disease free progression, significant, when it's not, for example. It's just Stats, but because many people are terrified of statistics, many people don't get the subtleties, and therefore they are massively and erroneously exploited. Like National's claim to have lifted the "average wage" massively (all the while the median wage was getting worse...) 

 

But think this, add 10° to a 30° day - it's a 33% increase, and makes 40° and it's damn hot but you don't die.  Now add another 10°, it's 50°, it's only a 25% increase but you're gonna die.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Island Time said:

Yep, that's where "lies, damn lies, and statistics" comes from :-) you can make statistics say anything if you select carefully!

No, what the good Dr points out is that statistics are often misunderstood or misconstrued.  

Your statement only holds true when your audience doesn't understand what they are looking at.

I get that you probably posted in jest, but this is a serious issue across society.  Its the basis of the manipulation of people's understanding of a range of issues.  KM's earlier posts about the decrease and increase in the use of coal in NZ is a classic example.

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12 minutes ago, aardvarkash10 said:

No, what the good Dr points out is that statistics are often misunderstood or misconstrued.  

Your statement only holds true when your audience doesn't understand what they are looking at.

I get that you probably posted in jest, but this is a serious issue across society.  Its the basis of the manipulation of people's understanding of a range of issues.  KM's earlier posts about the decrease and increase in the use of coal in NZ is a classic example.

Perhaps, but I'd have to say that when MOST people look at anything more than basic statistics, they dont understand what they are looking at, or perhaps more accurately the limitations of what they are looking at. Plus, in the current "fake news" and spin environment of our modern society, people select the numbers to suit their message. Read with caution.

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16 hours ago, aardvarkash10 said:

Put it up then, what science is being suppressed?

By science, I mean material that has been published in a reputable and relevant journal with findings that have been repeated by independant bodies.

Youtube clips don't count.

Your post is saying to me you're more keen on game playing than trying to help so I'll leave you to have fun with the other deniers.

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