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Blustery SW wind pattern


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The weather certainly is not 'on brochure' for summer cruising with the family. I always expect it to pack up around or just after New Years anyway (I believe its a weather phenomena called Murphy's Law)... And it is best to plan to cruise later in Jan or Feb, however most of us are constrained by other commitments like jobs or the kids school. I know most retired folk just wait until Feb when everyone else has buggered off and the weather has settled...

A good arguement for shifting the national holidays back 1 or 2 months. Europe take their holidays in August, not June. Just saying.

 

Anyway, to answer the orignal question, Niwa's climate outlook for Dec 19 to Feb 2020 gives some insight into what is going on. This was issued at the end of Nov, and don't mean much to me ahead of time, as the wording is fairly broad and general. But when you want to understand the actual patterns we have now, it is actually kind of interesting (maybe I need to get out more?)

 

The IOD is the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is responsible for all the issues in Australia (well, not all the issues, just the drought and the fires).

 

Short story, you can catch a good SW out to the Barrier, and if you stay there long enough (i.e. late summer) you'll get a good NE to come home on :-)

 

28 November 2019
Outlook Summary
  • ENSO neutral conditions continued during November 2019, although the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were on the El Niño side of neutral.
  • Oceanic ENSO neutral will most likely continue (70% chance) over the next three months.
  • The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) along with local and regional SSTs are expected to be the main climate drivers for New Zealand to start the summer season.  More specifically:
    • A strongly positive IOD will gradually weaken but continue to promote stronger and more frequent westerly quarter winds through at least December.
    • Tasman Sea and NZ coastal sea surface temperatures increased during November and are now above average in some areas; this is expected to persist during the summer season. Potential impacts include increased chances for above average warmth and/or the modification of cooler air masses as they move toward NZ.
    • December 2019 – February 2020 air pressure is forecast to be lower than normal to the west and south of New Zealand with higher than normal air pressure north of the country.  This is expected to be associated with a westerly quarter air flow anomaly, especially during December.  In the second half of the season, due to an expected shift in large scale climate drivers, persistent westerly quarter winds may ease and tend northeasterly quarter.
    • A potential transition from westerly winds in December to northeasterly quarter winds later in the summer could have an impact seasonal rainfall (e.g. areas that are wetter (drier) in early summer may be drier (wetter) for the second half of the season).
    • Temperatures for the summer season are expected to be above average for New Zealand, apart from the west of the South Island where there are about equal chances for near average or above average temperatures.
    • Rainfall is projected to near normal for most of New Zealand, except for the west of the South Island where near normal or above normal summer rainfall is equally likely.
    • https://niwa.co.nz/climate/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-december-2019-february-2020
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If I can put in a request its for sw 10 to 20 5 days a week because thats good for far side of barrier and north east 2 days a week for the return and a few days at tiri.

With crew on short holidays we went to GB anyway. Looked like a window ny’s day to come back. Too many things to do there so changed etd & destination to crews quarters in Leigh a day later. Got

This is an interesting thread. My wife and I shot out to the Barrier four days ago on one of those real light days with out too much of a look at the forward forecast until we got there. Fortunately t

 

The weather certainly is not 'on brochure' for summer cruising with the family. I always expect it to pack up around or just after New Years anyway (I believe its a weather phenomena called Murphy's Law)... And it is best to plan to cruise later in Jan or Feb, however most of us are constrained by other commitments like jobs or the kids school. I know most retired folk just wait until Feb when everyone else has buggered off and the weather has settled...

    •  

 

 

Awsome answer. Thanks. Will keep watching the weather, hopefully those NE patterns start to show up more frequently before end of Jan.

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130kph gusts from sunday afternoon

 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12298006

 

which will upset serena playing at the asb classic in auckland next week

 

she hasn't been since 2017 when she came 2nd and blamed auckland's gusty winds

 

https://www.delawareonline.com/story/sports/2017/01/04/dover-native-brengle-ousts-serena-williams-asb-classic/96146968/

 

at least it hasn't rained this year

 

sometimes campers get flooded out over new year

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With crew on short holidays we went to GB anyway. Looked like a window ny’s day to come back. Too many things to do there so changed etd & destination to crews quarters in Leigh a day later. Got to Leigh by midday so decided to head for Waiheki and a Wagyu burger. Bit of a bash as wind and sea had come up.

Weird 50m separation encounter with Whakapu. Nobody on bridge and no one to be seen. We crossed ahead, but only just. Dunno, think we would dip next time. Bit scarey.

It was a big day, for us anyway.

 

+ Big bull Orca and family, Bronzies, dolphins, Fitzroy walks

KF steaks, fixed the head, wind.

- Bit too much wind. Clocked 39knts coming into Fitzroy.

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This is an interesting thread. My wife and I shot out to the Barrier four days ago on one of those real light days with out too much of a look at the forward forecast until we got there. Fortunately the fridge broke down with three weeks of frozen meat so gave me an excuse to bail out when a small window appeared yesterday. Had an enjoyable sail back to Waiheke, but a not so enjoyable motor home today with beam rock peaking at 39 when we went past.

 

We are going to have another go at the summer cruise in a week or two.

 

BTW.. No Spark at the Barrier and the shop has run out of Vodafone sims which is a bummer for entertainment. Someone heard about my problem and lent me 'charged' vodem. There's some great follow cruisers around!

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This is an interesting thread. My wife and I shot out to the Barrier four days ago on one of those real light days with out too much of a look at the forward forecast until we got there. Fortunately the fridge broke down with three weeks of frozen meat so gave me an excuse to bail out when a small window appeared yesterday. Had an enjoyable sail back to Waiheke, but a not so enjoyable motor home today with beam rock peaking at 39 when we went past.

 

We are going to have another go at the summer cruise in a week or two.

 

BTW.. No Spark at the Barrier and the shop has run out of Vodafone sims which is a bummer for entertainment. Someone heard about my problem and lent me 'charged' vodem. There's some great follow cruisers around!

 

I'm watching the weather on Predict wind - Wednesday might ease enought to go (SW) then rid out Thursday blast at Fitzroy. Weekend starting to look ok. Just praying for that NE home......

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