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Blustery SW wind pattern


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Looks like that SW is going to give us a break for a few days (even if only to ease) so Barrier it is this weekend. Anyone else going?

hope to head that way Friday evening and should be a good sail from Sandspit  :razz:

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A strong SE flow currently just north of NZ and streaming onto the north eastern tip of Oz, will meet a strong easterly flow over the Peninsula and this combines over the Coral Sea and causes a cyclonic spiral that will eventually form a tropical cyclone Friday/Saturday. The current prediction is that this will become a severe storm and head in our direction. It's a prediction of course. Cyclones are notorious  things to predict the path of accurately. 
Anyway, currently, the storm looks to become severe as it passes between OZ and Noumea Sunday/Monday. It looks to be heading for a direct hit with the top of the North Island, but just before it reaches the top of the North, it suddenly weakens dramatically and alters course to head off East somewhere around late Wednesday/Thursday.
There will be strong Easterly winds from the top of the north right down to the Coromandle, rising from late Monday night and continually strengthening to 40kts or more late Tuesday and into Wednesday.,
Then it kind of stalls and eventually heads of East and runs out of Puff really quick.
So make sure you check the head ropes to mooring chains and make sure all the furling headsails are either down or well furled and tied off.
Oh and for those wanting Rain, there is going to be a week of patchy stuff till next Monday/Tuesday when it becomes pretty constant and the main tap gets opened up and I think the far north drought might be well and truly broken. It is not biblical deluge though. It is going to be a good steady drought breaking type rain fall at about 5mm per hr and the the odd part of Northland might see as much as 10mm/hr for short periods.
That is if it all follows prediction of course.

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The latest predictions of the Cyclone have it wandering off to the East of the North Island and loosing Puff. Instead of strong Easterly winds, it is likely to be strong Southerlies now. Their will still be some Rain for the North, but much less than previously predicted.

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