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Covid 19 - Are you ready to raise sail outa here...?


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27 minutes ago, Fish said:

Blah blah blah, what a load of twaddlebollocks.

Have a look at what I said, and think about it. You guys are diving into quantitative analysis to multiple decimal points. Don't waste your time. Look at the problem on a qualitative level. Does Italy have a big problem? how big is it, big, large, massive, hugely massive, or completely obiliteratingly hugely massive?

 

If we and all New Zealanders don't take this seriously, will we have a small problem, a mild inconvenience, or something on the scale of what Italy are seeing? Its not a complicated concept.

It is perfectly natural to seek comfort and solice in stats, that you will be ok, but given the urgency and real underlying danger here, everyone needs to do absolutely everything they can to slow and control this.

And as for marinheiro, in times of crisis you can either be helpful and constructive, or you can play politics. Nice Simon tried that the other day and got slammed from all quarters. Now he is being a bit more helpful in his comments (and I'm actually finding myself agreeing with him). I agree with you that the govt should be moving faster and stronger. I wanted the border closed last weekend. 6 days later isn't too bad for a govt decision making machine, and at least they've done it now. As for the Health Minister not knowing how many ICU beds there are, remember, the key job of the govt is to not spread panic - he knows alright. JA's job is to reassure people and keep them calm. Already we have seen a facebook rumour of impending shut down cause wide spread panic and carnage at supermarkets. So she has to squash that rumour, so people can at least get one loaf of bread and a box of tissues (Countdown are rationing those and rice for f**ks sake!)

The Health Minister knows full well how many ICU beds there is, and it is not nearly enough by a factor of 10 (at least). He isn't going to go and say that though, cause it would cause major panic. You can only trust that there are teams working on sorting more beds (and somehow, staff for them), but in the background. If there was a public outcry over this, it would be substantially harder to sort it. It is obvious what happens as soon as the media talk up a run on something (TP), everyone gets anxiety and runs out to panic buy it. If no one knows there is a possible shortage, no-one buys more, and there isn't a shortage - self fulfilling prophecy and all.

The best we can do is actually listen to the govts advice. Wash your hands, cough into your elbow, don't travel, stay socially isolated, don't share rum buckets, race short handed this winter...

If you have just arrived back in the country, don't think it is your god given right to go down the yachtie for a beverage, jump on the Friday rum race boat with 6 other people just cause you want to do the Friday rum race, or otherwise spread your risk around - regardless of if you feel fine or not.

Fish, you miss an important point, so far we have had a government that has put politics above public health and safety. Why was a border ban not imposed earlier, because it was going to upset the PM's planned hugfest in Christchurch.

Why has there been the reluctance until this week for wide scale testing, too many reports of people being knocked back even though they are showing all the symptoms, check Wheels post.

Look at the financial package they have just released, only $500m for health, but $2.8B to increase welfare payments, that is just electioneering, not addressing urgent priority.

I feel sorry for DG Ashley Bloomfield who has been handed the hot potato trying to manage this crisis with woeful resources.

There is an announcement from the PM today that there is no need to close schools, you can pretty much predict that they will be closed within a week 

It is just one knee jerk response after another. There is no plan in place, just reactionary decision making.

Even in times like these the government must be held to account for its (in)actions.

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Haha, this Govt is a bunch of crayon eaters! If they were serious we would have closed the borders some time ago.

Sorry to see SNZ go. It's part of life to  try and understand different points of view.....even when you disagree!

While I disagree with some of these rules, or more to the point, I'm just disappointing I can't go sailing, now is not a time to be second guessing, now is the time to be compliant. The powers th

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I actually agree with you on the need for all of those things to be accelerated. But I don't think its because of politics.

Bear in mind here that Politicians aren't at all experienced in pandemics, nor are the technically knowledgeable in much other than communicating (and for the cynic, spotting an opportunity). As we know, they always rely on 'expert advice'. I would expect there is a lot of noise around advice right now.

Now, think of some scenario's - you work in tourism, or own a large tourism company - govt closes borders 1 month ago, when there are no cases in NZ, that decision will wipe 20% off our GDP, and put, I don't know, 100,000 people out of jobs? If you are the decision maker, you need to be sure your decision is justified. I actually think the compulsory quarantine at the border was a 'soft introduction' of a blanket border closure. The border closure is now supported by the fact that all cases in NZ are 'imports'. It would be a tough call to shut down the entire country without any evidence it is needed - there are consequences of the decision going either way - 1,000's out of jobs, or maybe 100's dieing. Its a tough call. 

I do agree that various decisions were badly handled, the Pasifika festival, the Chch memorial, they said they were on, then cancelled them the day before, it mucked people around. But I am greatful they actually made a decision in the end (before the event), a lot of countries didn't make the tough call, and are now in the sh*t biggly - the UK is the best example.

On a slightly different note, disaster planning is hard work. A colleague has done "Lifeline" reports for natural disasters, looking at weaknesses in critical infrastructure. Things like looking at known slips and what key roads and water supplies would be taken out in a quake, etc. Just cause we know things like the Whangaparaoa Peninsular will be completely cut off, doesn't mean there is much the govt can do about it...

There is a lot of info about on what the pre-existing (2002) pandemic plans are, here is a link, its mildly alarming (thanks to Stuff), but also slightly reassuring its been thought about...

If you google 'pandemic plan' you will get multiple links to the MoH website.

The Government's general pandemic plan prepares for 38,000 deaths over an eight-week period with 10,000 of those deaths happening within seven days during an outbreak's peak.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120334508/coronavirus-what-is-new-zealands-plan-if-mass-deaths-occur

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This is an interesting article, from a reliable source:

In other words, the New Zealand Government has accepted that, if community transmission becomes widespread, it will have to lock down the country for a period of 18 months.

There's some flexibility here: With appropriate monitoring of hospitals and communities, countries could reopen schools and ease social distancing requirements whenever the number of ICU beds occupied by Covid-19 patients dropped below a certain number. In the UK, for example, that number would be 50. If the number of patients in ICU then rose to 100 again - as researchers say it would - those requirements would snap back into place.

In other words, that's two months on intense social distancing, one month off - for the next 12 to 24 months.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/03/19/1090839/nzs-new-covid-19-strategy-explained

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2 hours ago, marinheiro said:

Fish, you miss an important point, so far we have had a government that has put politics above public health and safety. Why was a border ban not imposed earlier, because it was going to upset the PM's planned hugfest in Christchurch.

Why has there been the reluctance until this week for wide scale testing, too many reports of people being knocked back even though they are showing all the symptoms, check Wheels post.

Look at the financial package they have just released, only $500m for health, but $2.8B to increase welfare payments, that is just electioneering, not addressing urgent priority.

I feel sorry for DG Ashley Bloomfield who has been handed the hot potato trying to manage this crisis with woeful resources.

There is an announcement from the PM today that there is no need to close schools, you can pretty much predict that they will be closed within a week 

It is just one knee jerk response after another. There is no plan in place, just reactionary decision making.

Even in times like these the government must be held to account for its (in)actions.

Ill go here even though its a marine forum;

First, do your civic and moral duty and try not be part of the problem but politicians do what they do, dogs piss on lamp posts and politicians work the room so dont expect sainthoods to be granted to any of them.

I agree the drawbridge should have been pulled up much earlier, I have been telling people I know this for weeks because its coming like a train. But dont give adern sh*t, you can be sure simple simon would be open for business all the way until the bodies started piling up. The media punditry were all bleating about business being hurt if the govt imposed anything- right up until this week. 

As for money- whats your suggestion all of it to the banks? Its should go where its needed and as you well know welfare payments go directly into the pockets of local business and landlords so they can hopefully keep afloat.

I predict schools will close next week, but I ask you whats one of the jobs of the pollys? to keep people calm- soothe the zeitgeist plus they tend to act on advice not on whim.

So exactly how many pandemics have you been in? NONE of our govt has any experience in this including the opposition so while I tend to think you are right that its a bit reactionary the nature of the threat means it has to be. Its no small thing considering how every decision is going to have a very serious impact on pretty much everyone. So far no countries have acted perfectly but in SE asia they have had 5 of these scares and they know how to deal with it. For us its new ground.

 

 

 

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Maté said:

 

So exactly how many pandemics have you been in? 

 

 

 

 

 

Actually one, H1N1 (swine flu) in Brazil 2009. My doctor wife treated possibly Brazil's first case, we were on an AA flight from Miami to Belo Horizonte February 2009 when they asked if there was a doctor onboard. My wife responded to find the co-pilot had collapsed. Went thru all the usual checks and was sure it was a virus (she is a respiratory specialist) but did not recognise it. Arranged an ambulance to meet the plane and put him in isolation. A few months later she reminded me about that case and how she was sure it was H1N1. She subsequently treated alot of cases in her clinic in 2009 and subsequent years, Brazil being hardest hit by this outbreak.

Our daughters work at the local supermarket on checkout, we met with their management several weeks ago and my wife was very firm that it was time the supermarket started providing masks to their staff. Response was do nothing, oh we do not want to scare our customers. So we bought masks for them to wear.

Yeah, so in fact I have a little more idea than most non medical people of the implications of an epidemic. That is why I am angry about the casual approach this government (and businesses) has taken, exactly as you say in your subsequent post "the she'll be right attitude"

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Guys,

We need to work constructively. In times of high anxiety and obvious stress, it is easy to get niggly and fractious. I know, I do it.

I actually think we are all saying basically the same thing (me, Mate, Marinheiro). Part of what I'm saying is, its not a good time to descend into a shitfight, either on a sailing forum, or either in real life aka the leader of the opposition (and he's backed off that). Far more can be gained by those in charge keeping their heads and being rational. (I'm sure there is a famous quote about keeping calm when all around you are panicing...)

Certainly I know from my time as a first responder in Chch that it is extremely unhelpful for people to lash out when under pressure, but also it is really hard for myself to bite my tongue...

On a constructive focus, Marinheiro, I am really interested in the kind of experiences your missus is talking about. I think they can provide insight and preparedness.

I just got off the phone to my Mum, she works in a resthome. Its already understaffed, and she has a very high workload. They were instructed yesterday that anyone with any minor cold or flu symptoms must not come to work (that part is obvious). But they wont get paid...

Many staff are missing shifts, it is already extremely challenging, and it hasn't even started yet. This, for night work, for not much more than the minimum wage. My Mum is 67, if she gets it, the prognosis wont be good. But someone needs to care for those residences she cares for. I am concerned about the situation. Right now I'm working out what I can do about it. I'm likely to raise it with an MP.

The resthome owner is Oceania. Feel free to shame them for not supporting their staff, whom they will need most this winter...

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Some theorizing might help understand the gravity of this.  

I live in Tauranga. There are 120,000 people here and I probably know/know of 5000.  On any given day I can’t go anywhere without bumping into someone I know. Or recognize. If the infection rate is 10% chances are I’d know 500 of them. If the mortality rate is 3% I’d have 15 funerals to go to. 
I work in the aged care sector.  So I’d probably have more than that. 

I agree with the thought that we couldn’t have closed the border earlier but am glad that it now is. 
 

self isolation and good hygiene is the name of the game now. Until some one sloppy let’s it get out into the community. 
 

I don’t know how bad things will get but have 3 family members who have lost jobs this week and a friend about to lose his business. It’s going to be very messy which ever way you look at it. 

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