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Corona virus statistics and reality


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37 minutes ago, marinheiro said:

and being vaccinated does not remove the potential for transmission.

Potential and reality are different things.  Potentially, I'm an All Black.  Reality - I'm a 59 year old overweight couch potato.

Reality - vaccines will reduce both the serious symptoms of the disease, and the risk of transmission.  Neither is 100%, but a reduction of 50% in transmission rates brings the R factor near to 1, and any reduction in symptoms reduces the caseload for hospitals, making them more able to deal with serious cases and other patients.

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I have read some very strange things about covid.  So first, yes it's real. And yes if you read reputable medical information you will probably be closer to the truth than a lot of other sources.

It’s a chance for horse face to put her ugly mug on tv every day now and the sheeple will Lao it up , perfect for re electing this clueless under performing team for the finishing touches on screwing

I think some are allowing their irrational dislike of Jacinda to leak into irrational thought processes regarding the handling of the pandemic.   As I understand,  get R below one. Cautiously ope

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39 minutes ago, aardvarkash10 said:

No, he didn't say that.  Read the quotes again.  

You can split hairs around it as much as you like, he very clearly didn't say it was a magic bullet. You still need to practice all of the disciplines, social distancing, mask wearing after you are vacinated.

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36 minutes ago, aardvarkash10 said:

Reality - vaccines will reduce both the serious symptoms of the disease, and the risk of transmission.  Neither is 100%, but a reduction of 50% in transmission rates brings the R factor near to 1, and any reduction in symptoms reduces the caseload for hospitals, making them more able to deal with serious cases and other patients.

Which is all true, correct and great. If you are in the UK with transmission rates through the roof. What is the current transmission rate in NZ?

What is half of zero? is it still zero?

As per England's deputy Chief Medical officer, you still need to practice all counter measures once you are vaccinated. The ONLY benefit of the vaccine in NZ currently is to relax border measures. Why would we do that? As per the quote in the article, no vaccine is 100% effective. A very very good vaccine may be 90% effective, meaning 1 in 10 are going to get sick if you open the borders.

Don't get me wrong, I am a strong advocate for vaccines. I spent 5 years at uni studying their manufacture. But I also know how vaccines work, and their limitations. The current frothing by the media implies vaccines are a magic bullet. I have serious concerns the role out of vaccines in the current NZ context will lead to worse outcomes than no role out. And I'm not talking any of the crack job theories on vaccines being used by the state to control your mind, but the science behind its effectiveness, and the social behaviour changes when people think they are invincible.

Tracer scanning rates in NZ are dismal, they will only get worse when people have been vaccinated and think they are immune, or don't realise they are still a carrier, even though they are asymptomatic. That will create untraceable clusters, which will be un-managable. Once everyone is vaccinated, the R rates will drop, but in the initial stages, things can easily get out of control. Or, we could just keep the borders shut, and stop 'residence' going off on jolly holidays to Europe any time they want.

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10 hours ago, Fish said:

You can split hairs around it as much as you like, he very clearly didn't say it was a magic bullet. You still need to practice all of the disciplines, social distancing, mask wearing after you are vacinated.

until whatever level of herd immunity is acheived, yes.

Not forever.  Which is kinda the point.

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10 hours ago, Fish said:

A very very good vaccine may be 90% effective, meaning 1 in 10 are going to get sick if you open the borders.

No, thats not the outcome of a "90% effective" vaccine - your studies would have included statistical analysis and that would give you the right steer.  Even an imperfect vaccine can acheive herd immunity if it gets the R value of the popluation low enough.  R<1 is all it needs to do (alongside usual health precautions).  You've noted this.

Like you, I am pro-vaccine (just not the needle as a delivery method!) and I support the border measures that are in place including their increase or decrease as risks change.

But we cannot go on being isolated until the rest of the world is safe.  Its just not a realistic proposal.

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What this one case will cost  Northland??

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/435104/covid-community-case-northland-businesses-face-anxious-wait

The Northland Chamber of Commerce predicted hundreds of staff won't come into work today after the 56-year-old woman visited about 30 locations across lower Northland and north Auckland.

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