aardvarkash10 276 Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 37 minutes ago, marinheiro said: and being vaccinated does not remove the potential for transmission. Potential and reality are different things. Potentially, I'm an All Black. Reality - I'm a 59 year old overweight couch potato. Reality - vaccines will reduce both the serious symptoms of the disease, and the risk of transmission. Neither is 100%, but a reduction of 50% in transmission rates brings the R factor near to 1, and any reduction in symptoms reduces the caseload for hospitals, making them more able to deal with serious cases and other patients. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Fish 699 Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 39 minutes ago, aardvarkash10 said: No, he didn't say that. Read the quotes again. You can split hairs around it as much as you like, he very clearly didn't say it was a magic bullet. You still need to practice all of the disciplines, social distancing, mask wearing after you are vacinated. harrytom 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Fish 699 Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 36 minutes ago, aardvarkash10 said: Reality - vaccines will reduce both the serious symptoms of the disease, and the risk of transmission. Neither is 100%, but a reduction of 50% in transmission rates brings the R factor near to 1, and any reduction in symptoms reduces the caseload for hospitals, making them more able to deal with serious cases and other patients. Which is all true, correct and great. If you are in the UK with transmission rates through the roof. What is the current transmission rate in NZ? What is half of zero? is it still zero? As per England's deputy Chief Medical officer, you still need to practice all counter measures once you are vaccinated. The ONLY benefit of the vaccine in NZ currently is to relax border measures. Why would we do that? As per the quote in the article, no vaccine is 100% effective. A very very good vaccine may be 90% effective, meaning 1 in 10 are going to get sick if you open the borders. Don't get me wrong, I am a strong advocate for vaccines. I spent 5 years at uni studying their manufacture. But I also know how vaccines work, and their limitations. The current frothing by the media implies vaccines are a magic bullet. I have serious concerns the role out of vaccines in the current NZ context will lead to worse outcomes than no role out. And I'm not talking any of the crack job theories on vaccines being used by the state to control your mind, but the science behind its effectiveness, and the social behaviour changes when people think they are invincible. Tracer scanning rates in NZ are dismal, they will only get worse when people have been vaccinated and think they are immune, or don't realise they are still a carrier, even though they are asymptomatic. That will create untraceable clusters, which will be un-managable. Once everyone is vaccinated, the R rates will drop, but in the initial stages, things can easily get out of control. Or, we could just keep the borders shut, and stop 'residence' going off on jolly holidays to Europe any time they want. harrytom, Elliot749 and jim s 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
BOIGuy 166 Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 Looking forward to Jacinda explaining that to you. "Now that you are all vaccinated we are going to let the disease run loose, most of you will be ok but some of you may die, we're a team of 5 million and I'm sure we all appreciate your sacrifice" Fish 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Black Panther 738 Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 What alternative do you suggest BoI? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
aardvarkash10 276 Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 10 hours ago, Fish said: You can split hairs around it as much as you like, he very clearly didn't say it was a magic bullet. You still need to practice all of the disciplines, social distancing, mask wearing after you are vacinated. until whatever level of herd immunity is acheived, yes. Not forever. Which is kinda the point. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
BOIGuy 166 Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 I'm all for it BP, just want to here Jacinda explain it, probably manage to get an expert to do it for her. I think there are quite a lot of people wanting to know what the plan is, I'm sure they have one, just waiting for the right political moment. harrytom 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
aardvarkash10 276 Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 10 hours ago, Fish said: A very very good vaccine may be 90% effective, meaning 1 in 10 are going to get sick if you open the borders. No, thats not the outcome of a "90% effective" vaccine - your studies would have included statistical analysis and that would give you the right steer. Even an imperfect vaccine can acheive herd immunity if it gets the R value of the popluation low enough. R<1 is all it needs to do (alongside usual health precautions). You've noted this. Like you, I am pro-vaccine (just not the needle as a delivery method!) and I support the border measures that are in place including their increase or decrease as risks change. But we cannot go on being isolated until the rest of the world is safe. Its just not a realistic proposal. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
harrytom 309 Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 What this one case will cost Northland?? https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/435104/covid-community-case-northland-businesses-face-anxious-wait The Northland Chamber of Commerce predicted hundreds of staff won't come into work today after the 56-year-old woman visited about 30 locations across lower Northland and north Auckland. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Fish 699 Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 32 minutes ago, Black Panther said: What alternative do you suggest BoI? Keep the border closed. The old saying, there is more than one way to skin a cat. There are more than one way to control a virus. harrytom 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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