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markm

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Posts posted by markm

  1. From the infamous RT database with a couple of edits and guesses from me, not sure if this will post correctly but hopefully

     

    sail name design notes
    K4124 Arbitare Farr 11.6  
    K8586 C U Later Ross 8 Australia, technically
    K6015 Distraction Farr 1020 Marlborough
    K8737 Drinks Trolley T30 Auckland
    K9380 Equilibrium Martin 55 Auckland
    K9023 Favourite Elliott 1350 Auckland
    K6095 Flying Boat Young 11 Auckland
    K9160 Focus Elliott 1350 Auckland
    K9367 Global First 36.7 Marlborough
    K10012 Hans Up Hanse 375 Entered as Henrieta, guess on actual boat
    K6962 High Voltage Elliott 1050 Christchurch
    K8349 Kick Elliott 1050 Auckland
    K9619 Kokomea First 40.7 Nelson
    K6069 Legacy III Young 11 Auckland
    K44044 Ma Te Wa XP 44 Auckland
    K8766 Margaritaville Ross 1066 Entered as Los Molinios, guessing this will be the boat
    O 3600 Mister Lucky Sunfast 3600 Australia  
    K641 Motorboat II Elliott 10.5 Noumea
    K16522 MR Kite Cape 40 Auckland
    K30040 Niksen Dehler 30 Auckland
      Pacman Young 11 Australia  
    K136 Playbuoy Stewart 34 Auckland
    K9953 Poulpito Sydney 38 Noumea
    K8681 Relapse Rocket 50 Auckland
    K28538 Serena T 1150 Auckland
    K4379 Shimmer II Townson 34 Auckland
    K6980 Simply Irresistible Young 11 Christchurch
    K143 Simply The Best Elliott 43 Auckland
    K5077 Southern Fun Davidson 36 Auckland
    K4903 Start Me Up Ross 930  
    K9848 Sweetwaters S&S  
    K4750 Urban Cowboy Ross 40 Auckland
    K9263 Vixen 76 Class 40 Auckland
    K8907 Waka t850 Auckland
    K1248 Whichway Davidson 52 Auckland
    K10303 Wired BBW 52 Auckland
    K6992 Zest C36 Nelson
    • Like 1
  2. General handicaps for the triple series have four components.  SSANZ racing excluding RNI,RNZ from the prior three seasons, RaceTrack, design assessment and for races 2 and 3, earlier racing from the current series.  Manual consideration is also a factor but as stated is the starting point with,approximately equal weighting to each component.  That isn't always possible as it's dependent on there being previous racing.

    It can be argued, quite reasonably. that race 1 this season should not have had handicaps changed afterwards, or changed minimally though my cynical side tends towards the view that how reasonable this is corrolates quite well with how well you placed in the race.

    I've been doing the general handicaps since 2014 and the issue is that I've thought the weather, whether dying or building breeze or weather coming through in waves has been a significant factor in results for 20 of the 23 races in that time, worse, two of the three where I didn't think it was significant were the final race in the series, so, well we weren't changing handicaps after those two anyway.  

    That shouldn't be much of a surprise for those with knowledge of Auckland winter weather, it's more likely than not either pretty light or blowing strong and change over a period of more than six hours and particularly after dusk is the rule, not the exception.

    Also consider, the argument that change should be minimal/none because of weather conditions assumes that the next race won't have similar conditions.  If the next race does, changing handicaps based on the prior race and changing to a fuller extent would absolutely be the right thing to do.

    Finally, consider the triple series has three races only, sometimes two but we won't go there.  It isn't a 10 race series where there is latitude for handicaps to correct over the series.  If any boats handicap is significantly wrong in race one and handicaps for whatever reason do not change, the mistake propagates through race two and the series can be effectively over, notwithstanding how handicaps may change, or not, in race 3.  It is the reason why I allow larger handicap changes than would be the norm during the manual consideration part of the handicap setting, more smaller changes simply don't work in a three race series.

    At present, policy is to always change general handicap and to assume nothing with respect to weather.

    Back to the initial part of this post which is the more interesting part.  

    minimising or Discarding races for unfair weather effectively removes the first two parts of the approach.  It's possible to minimise handicap change for the next race but extremely difficult to factor that into the basic approach ongoing without excluding races completely.

    Is it a reasonable approach, would excluding the actual short handed parts improve it?  Would capping the degree of change improve it and if so, to what extent?  Is it possible to somehow objectively determine what constitutes a 'weather unfair' race and if so, how?  My assessment is based on whether I thought more than 10-15% of the fleet was significantly affected by building / dying / seriously weird stuff, it does show in results.

    Cconstructave feedback of how to address weaknesses or what may be better and at a level that fits with reality isn't easy but is both welcome and useful.  If the majority could actually agree, well that would be the icing.

    And Psyche, if your comment actually related to Psyche, you must know I'm going to point out that while your handicap may have been truly crippling and the ultimate in unfair, perhaps being DNS was a bigger issue for your result.
     

    • Upvote 5
  3. Think the Evolution div 1 and 2 wording actually refers back when there was separate 'light' and 'heavy' small boat and wording never got changed when numbers caused the two divisions to merge.

    From memory, Open came in because of so many boats feeling the need to have a general handicap below 0.75 and the conclusion was it's easiest just to have a separate open division with no limit.
     

  4. Hi people 

    Forecasts are looking pretty good this year, at least moderate from the north and possibly a touch strong early but should ease a little as the evening goes on.  Possibility of a little rain but nothing too serious and a fairly good chance of nothing at all.

    Numbers are down a bit this year with a small number of quicker boats so I've elected to run a single course.

    Course, approximately 9.5nm:  

    From the start rounding Bean Rock Buoy to port, Rough Rock buoy to port, Orakei Buoy to starboard, Resolution Buoy to starboard, Bayswater Buoy to port finishing in a westerly direction between the Westhaven Tower and the ODM.

    The start line is defined as a line from Westhaven tower to the outer distance mark (ODM), the finish line is also a line from the Westhaven tower to the Outer Distance Mark.  Please note, unlike previous years, this is not a transit, boats finishing outside the Outer Distance Mark will be scored DNF.

    Start times shall be signaled with number boards on the tower and we will endeavour to broadcast each start time on VHF ch77.  We expect to coordinate start times using GPS time so starting on your GPS time should work well.

    Keep in mind people you are sailing under Collregs which do require a higher degree of caution while navigating in close proximity to other vessels.  There are also insurance implications so if close to other vessels, throttle back the racing enthusiasm, no one wants a damaged boat just before their Christmas cruise.  Take particular care going into and coming out of Rough Rock Buoy.


    Start times: final

     

    17:45    Stinger
    17:52    Close Encounters
    17:53    Crocodile
    17:59    Flashwave
    17:59    T Rex
    18:01    Sailor Moon
    18:01    War Machine
    18:01    Young Magic
    18:06    Cliff hanger
    18:06    Enigma I
    18:06    Houdini II
    18:06    Team Sex
    18:06    Fast Company
    18:08    Chain Reaction
    18:09    Sailutions
    18:10    Atomic
    18:13    Black Pearl
    18:13    Extreme
    18:14    Force Eleven
    18:16    The big dont argue
     

  5. From what I recall, S.I. amendment to lock down centreboards became fairly standard in NZ after Astrotraveller (Lightning 7.5) had a moderately serious roll one breezy squaddy winter series race in the late 80s.
     

  6. The VG is truly one of a kind, always enjoy following it and this year has all the indicators of being a classic, even by VG standards.

     

    Must put some thoughts together, however for those interested, a slightly modified version of the rankings splitting boats into groups based on the VG for which they were originally built.  2008 was apparently a vintage year for boats.

     

    vgd.xlsx

  7. Piedys definitely in there at the moment with class racing with fleets of 6-12 out of Milford and larger groups doing SSANZ and Auckland Regatta.

    Elliott 5.9s also very strong and have been for years but it's a different magnitude of serious.  Expect most club racers would look pretty ordinary if they put themselves in that group.

    Have also heard Reactors do a bit of racing run at association level pretty much under almost everyone's radar but regular fleets of half a dozen or so.

    If south of Auckland, accepted there is anything between the bombays and Antarctica, can't go past the Noelex 25s and 22s, their are groups racing on most lakes and trailer clubs.

    and not sure how much regular racing there is and if any in the Auckland area, but Hartley 16 nationals seem to get good numbers and think the  quality of sailing ranges from respectable through to beginner so interesting for most people and I'd assume light on the pockets, well as light as you could hope anyway.

    Not many of those keel boats sorry, plenty of other options if class racing isn't the big requirement, Trackers, Ravens, Lotus etc.

  8. I disagree Fish.

    It is not a humanitarian issue as they claim, it's a fiscal issue.  They can get off their boats if they consider the risk of cyclones too high.  That they don't want to lose their boats I completely understand, that this is a humanitarian issue New Zealand is somehow responsible for dealing with is politely, a stretch.  It's a cost issue and in the overall scheme of people being financially hurt by CV19, one that's quite a long way down on my sympathy list.

    And 4000km between NZ and Aus, really, did NZ or Aus move sometime while I had my back turned?

     

    They may have got sympathy from me, if they were actually honest with their case and the facts.

  9. Interesting but wow, talk about not being able to see outside your own pond.

    Very US centric and curious in that quite a few of the US designers mentioned were, at least in my opinion, pretty ordinary, whilst some I've got plenty of time for (RP, Andrews for example) weren't mentioned.  I guess though if they were, it'd kind of defeat the argument that was being made.

    As to the bit about not been able to mention recent designers, that's pretty much flat out ignorance, plenty of good people still doing design, just not very many in the states.  As to the production build boats not having name designers, well most I'd contend have a better rep and are better known than half those listed from his 'golden age'.

     

  10. A few new boats, as below

    7.6nm course :

    17:59 Crocodile
    17:59 Serene
    17:59 Sweathog
    18:04 Bondi Tram
    18:05 Flashwave
    18:05 Hot Gossip II
    18:06 Duty Free
    18:06 Cool Change
    18:07 Legless
    18:07 Young Magic
    18:07 Panama Jack
    18:07 Sailor Moon
    18:07 Elliphunk
    18:09 Ovlov Marine
    18:10 Carpe Diem
    18:11 Hawkeye II
    18:11 Hard Labour
    18:12 Fast Company
    18:13 Enigma I
    18:13 Team Sex
    18:13 Chain Reaction
    18:14 Fun-n-Games
    18:14 Waka
    18:15 Atomic
    18:16 Pretty Woman
    18:16 Motorboat II

    11.6nm course :

    17:45 Transformer
    17:45 Atamai
    17:47 Black Pearl
    17:47 Extreme
    17:48 Force Eleven
    17:59 Knee Deep II
    18:04 Freedom
    18:12 Romanza

  11. Hi people

    Forecast is something of a concern this year, MetService is calling the breeze to drop in the evening whilst the PredictWind models have it dropping only slightly but still definite wind warning country well into the evening.

    To cover the possibility that it will still be strong into the evening and given some boats may have people new to sailing, I've elected to make courses very simple this year.  I've also chosen to make the finish line a transit from the tower through the ODM meaning you can finish outside the ODM if you wish.

    Keep in mind people, as always, it's the skippers decision as to whether to go out sailing or not.  My personal advice, if the wind is up, be certain of your decision before leaving.

    As usual, for those starting last on the short course or first on the long course, if you particularly want to sail the other course, let me know and I'll see what can be arranged.

    Short Course :

    7.6nm:  From the start rounding Bean Rock Buoy to starboard finishing in a westerly direction on a transit line from the Westhaven Tower through the ODM.

    Long Course :

    11.4nm:  From the start rounding Motukorea Buoy to starboard finishing in a westerly direction on a transit line from the Westhaven Tower through the ODM.

    The start line is defined as a line from Westhaven tower to the outer distance mark (ODM), the finish line as noted earlier is a line from the Westhaven Tower, through the Outer Distance Mark to a point on the northern side of the harbour.

    Start times shall be signalled with number boards on the tower and we will endeavour to broadcast each start time on VHF ch77.  We expect to coordinate start times using GPS time so starting on your GPS time should work well.

    Keep in mind people you are sailing under Collregs which do require a higher degree of caution while navigating in close proximity to other vessels.  There are also insurance implications so if close to other vessels, throttle back the racing enthusiasm, no one wants a damaged boat just before their Christmas cruise.

    Apologies to the purists as I know it's not likely to be a tactical or challenging course, especially if I've overestimated the severity of the weather.

    Any questions, please email me at mmulcare@xtra.co.nz

    Start times, as at 16:00, Tuesday 17 December :

    7.6nm course :

    17:59 Crocodile
    17:59 Serene
    17:59 Sweathog
    18:04 Bondi Tram
    18:05 Flashwave
    18:06 Duty Free
    18:06 Cool Change
    18:07 Legless
    18:07 Young Magic
    18:07 Panama Jack
    18:07 Elliphunk
    18:09 Ovlov Marine
    18:10 Carpe Diem
    18:11 Hawkeye II
    18:11 Hard Labour
    18:12 Fast Company
    18:13 Team Sex
    18:13 Chain Reaction
    18:14 Fun-n-Games
    18:14 Waka
    18:15 Atomic
    18:16 Pretty Woman
    18:16 Motorboat II

    11.6nm course :

    17:45 Transformer
    17:45 Atamai
    17:47 Black Pearl
    17:47 Extreme
    17:48 Force Eleven
    17:59 Knee Deep II
    18:04 Freedom
    18:12 Romanza

     

    Stay safe people, if you're out enjoy the sail.

    • Upvote 1
  12. Hi people,

    Brief reminder to get rum race entries in.

    Important for a couple of reasons, likely a decision on whether to proceed based on numbers will be made Monday evening.

    Will take entries after that but do keep in mind, the later the entry, the grumpier the handicapper is likely to be and do you really want a start time set by a grumpy handicapper?

  13. Has been looking the tinyest bit unpleasant hasn't it, and maybe the occasional rain drop Sunday afternoon if GFS is to be believed.

    WindFinder not looking quite as bad and still quite a way out so perhaps there's hope.

    • Upvote 1
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