Warning ! severe tropical cyclone Ita upgraded to Cat 5 ...

[idlerboat 116]

Due to impact the Northern QLD coast evening of the 11/4.

Upgraded to Cat 5.

For track map click..

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

Please note the sections highlighted in Red below and near bottom of bulletin.

 

IDQ20018

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION

Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

at: 0656 UTC 10/04/2014

Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita

Identifier: 15U

Data At: 0600 UTC

Latitude: 12.6S

Longitude: 147.0E

Location Accuracy: within 5 nm [15 km]

Movement Towards: west southwest [243 deg]

Speed of Movement: 10 knots [18 km/h]

Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots [205 km/h]

Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots [285 km/h]

Central Pressure: 935 hPa

Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]

Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]

Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]

Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]

Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]

Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]

Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]

Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]

Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm [55 km]

Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [25 km]

Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS

Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa

Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]

FORECAST DATA

Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure

[uTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa

+06: 10/1200: 13.0S 146.3E: 020 [035]: 115 [215]: 928

+12: 10/1800: 13.7S 145.8E: 030 [055]: 120 [220]: 922

+18: 11/0000: 14.3S 145.4E: 045 [080]: 120 [220]: 922

+24: 11/0600: 14.9S 145.0E: 055 [105]: 120 [220]: 922

+36: 11/1800: 16.1S 144.5E: 075 [140]: 080 [150]: 964

+48: 12/0600: 17.2S 144.6E: 095 [175]: 035 [065]: 996

+60: 12/1800: 18.6S 145.5E: 115 [215]: 030 [055]: 1000

+72: 13/0600: 19.9S 147.4E: 135 [250]: 030 [055]: 1001

+96: 14/0600: 22.1S 152.6E: 180 [330]: 030 [055]: 1000

+120: 15/0600: 24.0S 156.4E: 265 [495]: 030 [055]: 998

REMARKS:

Dvorak analysis of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita was based on an eye pattern with

a white surround and an added 0.5 for a dark grey eye combined with a white

surround, giving a DT of 6.5. The average DT over the last 3 hours is 6.5 also.

MET and PAT both give 6.0.

 

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita has intensified significantly today with the system

now exhibiting a clear eye pattern on the recent satellite imagery. Deep

convection has developed further near the inner core of the system with very

cold cloud top temperatures now surrounding a well defined warm eye in the

infrared satellite imagery. The system remains situated in a low vertical wind

shear environment with sea surface temperatures greater than 28 degrees. CIMSS

upper winds depict very good outflow above the system, which has allowed

intensification to occur today. ADT is following this intensifying trend with a

greater than a 100 knot system being analysed.

 

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita is being steered towards the west-southwest under

the influence of a mid-level ridge extending across the central Coral Sea and up

over the Solomon Islands. The system has been moving faster than forecast and

quicker than any of the computer model guidance is indicating, so therefore some

persistence has been paid to the short term forecast track. The mid-level ridge

is expected to erode into Friday, which should then lead to the system

developing a southwest track prior to landfall along the far north Queensland

coast. Most of the global computer models are now indicating that the system

will cross the far north Queensland coast late Friday between Cape Melville and

Cooktown.

[Black Panther 1,591]

That's is a lot of wind

[idlerboat 116]

Yep BP...and due to the unusual behaviour, a few met people are suggesting extreme caution.

Given the rough ride the met people get, if their predictions are over or under....they are in a bad place.

Hence the additional notes.....

It may hit the highest wind speeds in 30 years.

........but hey, our government is systematically stripping out a large proportion of science in the weather area, because after all...."what you dont know wont hurt you"....

 

(The most recent a $ hundred mill, out of Antarctic research, sure not all will go from weather BUT with the suggestion that it be made back up by commercial interests....)It looks very bad for the Antarctic "wilderness concept"