Weather forecast models

[John B 106]

Which one does metservice use? I can't see a reference on their site and never thought to look before .

I know windguru uses GFS, I think metvuw ( without looking)might as well because they're often similar.

Take today for example , Metservice has strong wind advisory, 25 gust 35, outlook , solid 25. Look at metvuw and I just cannot see that in the maps.

Look at windguru and they have mostly 20 ish with some gusts to 25 for a bit, similar to what I'd expect from metvuw.

 

woops. updated metservice forecast as at 10.58

 

Northwest 15 knots, rising to westerly 30 knots gusting 40 knots early afternoon, then easing to southwest 25 knots gusting 35 knots late afternoon and to 20 knots overnight.

outlook 20.

They still see something others don't, so it'll be interesting to see whether it eventuates today eh.

[Guest]

yes thats right regarding Metserv, PYBC has a race tonite to Kawau, most boats have pulled out because of their forecast for this evening. At the moment we have nice sunny weather blowing 15kn West/NW. I would not expect Metserv to be so much different to Metvuw. Wait and see!

[Fish 0]

Metservice's weather maps (i.e. 5 day rain model) state they are "based on data and products of the UK Met office"

I can't see clear source references to much else.

I've always found predict wind to be more reliable than met service for detailed forecasts.

[khayyam 78]

28 gusting 39 at the squadron at the mo. so maybe metservice isn't so bad this time...

[Guest]

Bean Rock just recorded a gust of 45knots, Tiri max 25knots

[Fish 0]

If you look at a purely model output, they often miss features such as fronts that move over with a high intensity for a short period of time. This also accounts for squally weather, where there is large variance in wind strength on exact geographic location. The models, especially with low resolution, only show the averages either side of the weather feature.

 

My understanding is the Metservice still run the very old fashion and antiquated human eye over the forecasts and adjust them for known features such as cold fronts blowing through and snotting everything in its way, but then dropping to lovely clear whatever conditions after it.

 

While the models tend to give a higher resolution than the 'generic' metservice forecasts, its always handy to check the general situation reports on metservice and make your own mind up what is actually going on with the weather on any particular day.

 

Some people even look out the window (and look at clouds etc, very old fashion, I'm sure there is an app for that now).

[John B 106]

Fish , I think you're right on the money. I'm aware that gribs have their limitations because they don't show the effects of troughs and ridges , but I admit , I've been using metvuw so long I don't even think of them as a grib type forecast. But they are aren't they. Best used with an isobaric map with fronts marked beside it.

 

Anyway , I'm giving Met service a high pass score for friday and the weekend .We 'd be in 20 or 25 knots and then get some serious extended squalls to 30 or 35 +, Saturday was pretty well as forecast at kawau and sailing back yesterday was 12 or 15 in lulls and then squalls or gusts easy 25 + at times. went more solid in the afternoon. They were bang on with their ' strong wind advisory'

 

How often do you get a blast up to kawau and a close reach home , that's twice this season already! Heh , 2 other boats in mansion house friday evening, they left early morning and we had the place to ourselves til lunchtime or so. Fantastic weekend.