K4309
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Posts posted by K4309
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13 minutes ago, aardvarkash10 said:
Metservice says to expect southerlies for at least two more weeks, then a shift to more northerly patterns.
Where does it say that? is it a blog thing or some sort of medium term forecast?
Keen for a link if you have it handy.
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1 hour ago, motorb said:
What forecast models do you think work well for the Hauraki? Metservice tend to underestimate wind I reckon. I try to look at various options, and as you said, if they don't agree then things are generally going to be unpredictable.
Metservice is a shambles. But they get their data from all the same global models.
I use Predict Wind, with the paid subscription (standard). Gives access to 6 models. Four are standard international global models, forget the names (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, which I think are North American, European and UK), and two Predict Wind models, which are based on two of the global models with PW enhancements. I put most weight on the two PW models, but PW show the forecast accuracy for all the models so you can go and see which ones have been most accurate over the last couple of weeks.
It is not that one model is ever better than any of the others. And none are 'better' for the Gulf than others. With 6 models, as said earlier, if they all line up you have high confidence in the forecast, if they are all different you have low confidence in the forecast. But knowing your forecast confidence is key. You can't get that by looking at a single model, like Metvuw or Swellmap or Metservice or what ever. All those services take the exact same global model data and present it with different graphics and user interface. But the underlying data is exactly the same.
Predict Wind also have very extensive now-casting, and an extensive range of live web-cams as well. Is handy for educating yourself on actual conditions in a given wind strength and direction for spots without having to physically go there (example, there is a camera above the Kawau Boating Club, so you can see how blowy Bon Accord is in a SW or Westerly without going in there and deciding it is too blowy, then bugging out to Mahurangi). If you want to get super techo, PW also do 1 km grid forecasts (super high resolution) and a whole lot of weather routing type stuff, fastest route for a given departure time, optimisation of departure time, and even things like hull slaming / how rough it will be (which I haven't used). Some of that stuff can be a distraction, but if you understand it's limitations can also be really handy. Just looking at a 1km forecast is hugely more detailed than an 8 km forecast, which is in itself night and day better than a 50km data-grid forecast, which is what most forecast outputs are in. 1 km grid forecasts are good if you into racing and combine that with weather routing.
Every now and then I will also look at Niwa's climate outlook, but that is for longer term trends (3 months) and currently is about as useful as reading a horoscope. If you do a deep dive into Niwa's climate outlook you can find the techo stuff the quants use to produce the forecasts (quantitative data analysts). It covers metrics on a more global scale such as the difference in easter and western pacific water temp (indicator of La Nina and strength, think its called SAM), the Indian Ocean Dipole (kind of the same as SAM, has a big effect on highs and lows heading toward NZ) and the Madden Julian Oscilliation, which to be honest I still haven't gotten my head around. The point is, all those things are in a state of flux at the moment, there is no clear patterns and no known weather pattern getting established. That all indicates to me (rightly or wrongly) that the weather this summer is 'off script', it is unstable, and the forecasters are struggling to understand the current atmospheric carrying ons, and therefore the short term forecasts won't be that reliable. I'm assuming up until the weather falls back into a more predictable pattern.
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Who've you got as crew?
If it's the missus and kids the forecasts are a different proposition to going with a couple of hard-arsed mates. That is on the basis of beating back from Barrier in a 25fter with 25 gusting 35 on the nose for 8 hours plus.
Currently I wouldn't trust a forecast till it happens at the moment (for good weather that is). If several models are saying different things, all that is tell you is a low certainty of the the outcome. If all models say the same thing, there is a high certainty of what they say actually happening. But these current patterns are unseasonal and highly unusual. Personally I don't think it's anything to do with a high forming, but that low that has been sitting over the Chathams since Christmas Eve, that can push back into a high any time it wants and set up more Southerly / SW.
And the only certainty is forecasts change over 7 days. What a forecast says now will not be what the weather actually is next Friday.
Obviously if it looks like a high is coming on, it is ideal to head to Barrier on a SW and come back on a NE, but that is ideal stuff and based on the last couple of weeks of weather, akin to looking for rocking horse poo or unicorn farts. As in things that simply don't happen.
If your going with the missus and kids you can probably have as much fun around Kawau Bay area without the risk of an epic pasting on the way home. Or be flexible and head to Kawau Bay area, if the forecasts firm up do a mish to the Barrier, but don't pin any great expectations on it. If your going with a couple of hard arsed mates, just send it.
A lot to be said for being flexible and adaptive with these current weather patterns. It is not normal weather for this time of year by a long shot.
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2 hours ago, waikiore said:
The Herald has repeated the already proven false claim that they were both hit by booms, as I suggested lets keep this forum accurate .
Serves you right for reading the Herald then, ay?
What I posted earlier about the mainsheet was a quote from some guy at the CYA, but very surprisingly was via Stuffed. I know the journo's are all on holiday now, and judging by the grammar, MSM is being run by dyslexic 7 year olds, but I was very surprised to get some actual information via an MSM source.
That said, the MSM are loving this, headline grabbing tragedy to add to the shark sightings, dramatic accounts of what the weather forecast is, or repeating Police news on a continuous loop.
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Both were initially reported to have died when their respective boats’ boom hit them. But the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia’s David Jacobs late on Friday said Smith was in fact killed when he was hit by the sail’s main sheet.
Hours earlier onboard the Flying Fish Arctos, Quaden was hit by the boat’s boom. The 55-year-old Western Australian man could not be saved despite his teammates performing extensive CPR.
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3 hours ago, harrytom said:
I can get run over crossing the rd if Im not carefull,where do you stop? Accidents happen in all walks of life. work/sport
Yeah, but that is not a great analogy. What is the likelihood of getting hit by a truck while minding your own business on the footpath? You have to make a conscious decision to step onto the road. There is no conscious decision to get whacked by the boom.
A better analogy would be standing on the footpath minding your own business with a massive steel beam that can suddenly swing out and take your head off without warning, at random times.
It is a basic safety in design thing. Just make the gap between the boom and the cockpit sole greater. Sure you can yell 'quack' at your crewmates (duck) every now and then, but it isn't that effective. Yes there are a number of risks in sailing, as in any aspect of life. That is one of the things that attract us to many aspects of sport, the risk and the reward.
I know racing boats aren't cruising boats, but cruising boat designers address these issues very well. Boom above head height in the cockpit. And the mainsheet issue, many boats now put the mainsheet out of the cockpit, generally on the cabin top. I see some of the fancy French racing boats have the mainsheet / traveller at the very aft of the cockpit, as in out of everyone's way. That is another way to deal with it. Doesn't eleminat the risk, but it does reduce it by removing the mainsheet from the main crew work areas of the cockpit. I'm sure the purists will argue that having high booms and travelers on the cabin top is not fast, which has some truth to it, but at the same time you can't win a race if you don't finish with all the crew, so in that regard killing your crew is not fast either. It is all about balance really.
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Noting you can anchor in any CAN you want at any time as per the CAN notice, Schedule 2, Clause 1 (c)
"no other alternative safe sheltering locations or mooring can be easily acquired"
Oh, and the reason MPI has given for allowing anchoring in the Waiheke CAN is because the caulerpa is dieing off naturally. Who would have thought nature would just sort itself out? Just like fan worm and the other 2 dozen or so invasive species that are listed at the moment.
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10 minutes ago, khayyam said:
Not without raising the centre of effort and compromising performance. Which might be worth it, but is why race boats don't.
Be fairly easy to add a rating penalty for low booms. If national bodies are serious about safety that is. No performance advantage if you get stung on handicap (in most respects, sure there are those that only want to win on line).
As BP says, there is untold scope for new rules. Minimum height for booms. Carrying helmets onboard, wearing helmets when running downwind in the dark in big waves. Something about preventers (can introduce more issues).
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3 hours ago, Black Panther said:
Anyone able to tell us in plain English what they've been up to ?
One of the selectors was the father of the guy trying to get selected for the 49er for the Olympics. Would not excuse himself from the selectors panel even though there was a jaw dropping conflict of interest.
Half the team qualified for the Olympics but then YNZ refused to nominate / select them. Happened to be the non-traditional events of kiting and wind-foiling I believe. That is just the stuff we know about publicly. Fairly sure I've missed some public stuff amongst that.
That, and of course YNZ is now the personal empire of Abercrombie, who has been CEO for like, forever. Answerable to no-one.
It has been clear for some time that YNZ needs a good clean out. The carrying on at Cycling NZ, Rowing NZ and High Performance Sport was always going to catch up with YNZ.
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The guy in Te Atatu is an absolute star at fixing things like that.
No idea how to say his name, but he has performed many miracles. Even Kiwi Yachting recommend him. You may have just blown a fuse or a FETS. Both super easy to replace if you know what you are doing. He has replaced both on out AP course controller at different times.
Obviously being this close to Christmas may be problematic, but it would be worth a phone call at a minimum. Or drop your dead unit off and hope for a Hail Mary.
EFrontier - GPS Receivers and Bluetooth for Australia and NZ
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4 hours ago, motorb said:
Well, it's been just over 24 months since posting this thread and I'm very pleased to say that I've moved my little tracker into a spot on the Weiti River.
I'll save you all the rant, but the Westahaven poles literally have fist sized holes in them at the low water mark and westhaven has NO plan to fix this. Yes, they have been snapping off, and yes, mine snapped off last year. They're just gambling that nobody gets hurt while they wait for everyone to leave. They even mucked us around (again) on the dinghy racks, with a big step down in security, services and parking. Absolutely disgusting behaviour from a Council controlled organisation. Be very careful navigating in that corner of the marina as I'm pretty certain there are snapped off poles below the water that they still haven't removed.
Very glad to be out and very much enjoying the community/club vibe up at Weiti. I just hope one day Westhaven gets a new directive to cater to a wider range of Auckland boaties.
Welcome to the river. You will love it.
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I've been trying to fix all the outstanding items on my boat for the last, err, 10 to 15 years.
It's a fools game. Unobtainable. You will go mad trying to achieve it. Like trying to achieve perfection.
By the time you get to the end of the list, the stuff at the start will need fixing or replacing again.
Sure, you def need to fix things like bearing screech and the water pump, but I'd really caution against trying to get everything perfect on a boat. You will go mad.
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Do you have space for a thrust bearing? Supposed to be the ducks nuts for removing vibration, but it sounds like it might be hopeful with the dimensions you've already mentioned.
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1 hour ago, aardvarkash10 said:
point is, there is an acceptance of responsibility, not a passing on of it to some as-yet-undefined and no doubt publicly funded entity.
Its actually well easy to arrange for removal and disposal. Boats are hauled and road transported all the time, and there are disposal and transfer stations around the country. Add it up guys.
Again, it just costs.
Below is the list of exclusions at Waste Management's Transfer Stations. If you put your boat on a Boat Transport Truck, and rocked up to a transfer station, they aren't going to let you in the gate, let alone leave your boat there.
I'm sorry if I sound rude, but anyone thinking it is easy to dispose of an old boat is just ignorant. Please try it. You will then understand what I'm banging on about.
The usual exclusions are oil and any known toxins, as in antifoul. Anything flammable, such as the content of the impossible to drain properly fuel tank. Flammable solids is an interesting one. Swabs, liners and every fibreglass boat. Noting of course you pay by the kg, so you'll need to find some land somewhere to remove the keel and engine before transporting the hull to a transfer station.
In practice you have to strip the hull back on the exterior, and empty and clean the interior, just to be able to dump it. Most people that have the ability to do that, either financial or physically, are probably going to be able to maintain their boat in the first place.
Exclusions:
- Asbestos
- Dangerous goods such as; flammable liquids, flammable solids, poisons, pool chemicals, gas bottles, paint
- Explosives and fireworks
- Agricultural residues or chemicals
- Scrap motor cars
- Animal by-products e.g. carcases, offal
- Medical waste of any nature
- Firearms
- Tractor / OTR tyres
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23 minutes ago, aardvarkash10 said:
point is, there is an acceptance of responsibility, not a passing on of it to some as-yet-undefined and no doubt publicly funded entity.
Its actually well easy to arrange for removal and disposal. Boats are hauled and road transported all the time, and there are disposal and transfer stations around the country. Add it up guys.
Again, it just costs.
Please, try it.
Then come back and tell us how you got on.
The boat owners I have helped have been accepting of their responsibility. It is just very hard to get the job done in any legal or legitimate way.
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Oh, and if your boat is insured, the only way you are going to get the insurance co to sort it out is by wrecking it.
You can't phone PIC and say I don't want my boat anymore, can you guys dispose of it for me?
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30 minutes ago, aardvarkash10 said:
Nope,that's not the only option.
It's the cheapest, but not the only.
If you own a boat that is truly end of life, you should dispose of it appropriately. Pull it out, break it up, sell reusable stuff eg winches, send the rest to managed landfill.
Trouble is, that costs.
Psyche's proposal is a solution if the cost falls fairly. Owners have to take some reasonable responsibility.
There is an existing model - cars. End of life cars are now (mostly) disposed of by the owner at a cost.
That sounds great in theory, but in practice, it turns into a flying spaghetti monster.
And it is not about cost, although that is a factor.
The issue is compliance.
Can you tell me where you can haul a boat out and break it down? Will Pier 21 do it? Gulf Harbour? Last I heard it was a struggle to get those places to haul a boat just to do the antifoul.
If you don't have insurance, is there anywhere that will haul you out? let alone then allow you to smash the boat to bits there?
Have you ever tried finding a dump truck operator to take a smashed boat to a landfill? It is very, very complicated. They are liable for compliance issues at the landfill around toxins - what we normally refer to as anti-foul, and of course oils, and a wide array of other nasties found in boats.
Sure, it can be done in theory. But finding land you can do it on is one issue. Finding contractors that will do it is another. Getting the job done without breaching some rule or regulation is another. I've been involved with this process and the only way it happened, in a Council car park infront of sports clubs and a beach reserve, is cause the boat was already wrecked on the beach and that is where we dragged it too so that it wasn't smashed up on the beach, in the sand etc.
Your example of an existing model is not applicable. People get paid for their old cars. There is substantial existing infrastructure around disposing of cars. It is a whole industry. Currently, you can't google a boat disposal company and just pay someone to sort out your former pride and joy. You do that for cars and you will have guys around the next morning offering you cash.
In my view the Harbour Masters need to stop whining and set up a solution, somewhere that boats can voluntarily be dismantled and disposed of responsibly.
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And this situation:
Kauri 26 ft motor sailer. Bulid north shore approx 1960Needs to go as mooring adjacent to Herald island no longer available Any offers gratefully accepted Photos taken several years ago. Has been on mooring since then with little maintainence -
And this sort of thing is common. Photo of several derelict boats at Little Shoal Bay, one that someone is trying to move on...
Hi all, may be of interest for someone looking for a cheap Trailer sailor . The boat in pic my friend Hector owned some years sgo he sold it to a chap by name of Ken . but i know Ken is most unwell and this little 20ft Trailer sailor (forget the design name ) would be going cheap (very ) its at LSB N Shore . Ken had two other boats at LSB a big tri that the houbour board towed away and cut up , plus Ken had another Trailer sailor 20ft he sold for 500 dollars just to get rid of it . I have sailed to W Island on the one in Picture with My Mate Hector when he owned it , good little Yacht . if anyone is interested I can find out Kens details as I will be that way on Weekend , cheers Bob . PS boat in fore ground .
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Salthouse 25 heavily fouled, has rig and sails, moored Shelly Park, south Auckland. Free for removal
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Sabre 20. In Paremata and in need of a serious clean.Free to a good home!
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Genisis 33 in Whiti, got lots of interest, moved on to a new owner but not outside of the environment:
BOAT NOW SOLD -I have a Genesis 33 in whitianga moored in back bay.Mooring rent is $50 week,Boat has soft spots on top in several areas as wood only.Hull is good as it’s GOP. Needs an anti foul and a heck of a good clean up. Engine is a 275 ford Sabre turbo runs mint. No batteries atm. Beautiful boat that we need gone please make us a reasonable offer.This is an older pic and is worse condition but will try to get better photos when I can. -
Well maintained Raven in Westhaven, open to (any) offers. It's berth is given if anyone want to go check it out:
I have a Raven 26 at Westhaven and although the engine starts stalls when in drive, been told low compression on the enginein regular use until then antifoul 12 months ago2 mains , 3 Jibs , Furler , electric Windlass , tiller autopilot and all other bitslooking to sell anyone interested? -
20 minutes ago, Psyche said:
We are led by people who think all problems can be solved with another rule.
This.
And yes, I fully agree the solution is a wrecking facility. Not more rules.
Requiring compulsory insurance wont do anything for the many hundreds of already abandoned boats around the district. Erm, they are already abandoned...
It wont do anything for all the people who's boat is at end of life, and want to get rid of it in some sort of responsible way. There are a lot of people that are in that camp. Currently, the only option is to give it away to someone else. That doesn't actually solve the problem of the end of life boat, it just shifts it to a different person.
For all those people thinking insurance will be the saviour, go and have a look at the FB group "sitting their rotting, help save me". Then tell me which insurance co will take the liability on these boats. PS, there are some 'bargain' boats you can pick up for a box of beer or less.
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Forecast for next week?
in MarineTalk
Posted
Ahh, that one.
I've re-read that several times now. When I first read it at the start of Dec it looked like a forecast, esp the high confidence of higher than normal temperatures (started wearing winter shirts and woolen jerseys again last few days - which does not align with higher than normal temp).
I re-read it last week and it now reads more like a horoscope. Completely indecipherable. Being horoscope style, I think there is a great risk of people inferring what they want to hear out of that
I'd be keen to know if any forumites know of good medium term weather blogs or what not. Am waiting for Niwa's January climate outlook to be issued, but aren't holding my breath.