late season passage timing, Islands to NZ?

[John B 106]

A general question. What do you guys see as the best time ( usually) for Fiji say back to NZ. An aquaintance, a very experienced Atlantic delivery skipper may be bringing a boat here and is concerned about having to wait until october. Is the equinox to be avoided?

Or am I correct in what I've told him... plenty of boats do it but watch for the window.

[Guest]

I would go later, even as late as early December.

[John B 106]

He won't want to hang around that long.

[Guest]

What sort of boat?

[Mothership 6]

What sort of boat?

 

Hands up who sees where this is heading

[Guest]

No silly, but if he's experienced, and it is a sound boat he can probably be a little more relaxed abouit the timing.

[Battleship 100]

Certainly does depend a lot on the boat, a 40 foot racer will need to be more careful than a 70 foot cruiser for example.

[John B 106]

Good seaboat ,older style, 50 ft.

I'm just talking generally ATM, he knows it all really but just looking for local input should it all go ahead ,so he has some other perspectives.

 

I've said to him, Equinox is usually sept but gee last year from memory , october was the bad month( or was it the year before) so its not set in stone. If you were a local insured cruiser to the islandsyou'd only get insurance between 1st april ( march?)and end of November ( is that right ?) so that reflects a commercial risk perspective regardless of how real it is.

 

So what I would like to say to him ,( if its correct) is that the return window is typically before or after september, usually October November, but that with the cruiser nets and gribs etc available now , he could make a safe trip down in september if thats how it works out.. leave in a strong sytem, and watching out for whats over both South Australia and Darwin ie estimating whats 5 days +out.

 

does that sound like fair comment?

[Battleship 100]

From memory the last few years September has generally had better weather than early October, later on in October (labour weekend) has been ok, nothing to worry a 50 foot cruising boat.

[T+V 0]

We've come down in our old-fashioned 40' once from New Cal in late August and once from Fiji in late September, both times with no problems. It's a matter of hitting a reasonable pattern of weather and not being afraid to head off when the trades are blowing fairly hard in front of or over the top of a high. If you wait for northeasterlies you get hammered later on. However, it's likely that he'll get at least one blow of some kind before Opua. Be good if he's got at least one crew.

[Guest]

If this season turns into a full blown el Nino which seems probable then best to leave before December. Cyclones tend to develop further east and earlier in these seasons. (got bitten on the arse a few years back but that was mid December). That being said I would rather be sailing south during cyclone season than any other direction.

[John B 106]

Great points guys, thankyou.

[wheels 543]

Haven't we just cycled from El whosawhat to La whatsitwho. I never remember which goes with the La and El, but anyway, I think we have different weather patterns now than the last few years. So maybe the more accurate thing to do is find out which cycle we are in, and then look at the history for that cycle. The various months have similar patterns each year, just depends on if we are in a La or an El.

[Fogg 427]

Certainly does depend a lot on the boat, a 40 foot racer will need to be more careful than a 70 foot cruiser for example.

 

Mmmmm, debatable I'd say.

 

A fast, strong, well-maintained and well-crewed 40 ft racer might be a preferable option to a tired old slow 70 ft cruiser. For a start the 40 footer might be quicker which could make enough difference to avoid a hiding which the slower cruiser gets hit by.

[Battleship 100]

Of course it's debatable, on a delivery the race boat is unlikely to be fully crewed, so is still a more risky proposition, and depending on the wind direction the 70 foot cruiser may not be a lot slower.

Shall we say it depends? So many variables, are we talking a class 40 or a Ross 40, a Herreshoff 70 or Elliott Tourer?

[John B 106]

It looks like a 150 mile average boat to me, assuming they'll pick courses not too far forward of the beam.

Which leads me onto the next question and again in general

Assuming they left in a good strong assisted SE trade and that the probability is that they'll run into prevailing westerlies or even SW as they approach NZ, it seems to me they should make some west from Fiji .. sail about 190 or 200 until the westerlies come in. Is that normal ?

[Guest]

Depending on the long range forecast the norm seems to be head SW until around 28 south and due north of North Cape then square away for BOI

[John B 106]

Thats what I thought thanks PW. I was talking to an American guy in Savusavu a couple of months ago who kept talking about making east when coming down to NZ, and he lost me. That was after a couple though ,so that wasn't hard.