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Tonga and Fiji


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:cry: ....I have been watching winston since he was a little low pressure boy.

He has displayed a complete lack of regard for rules and decency;

I am very disappointed that so little news on this side of the ditch has happened.

W may even hit cat 5.

Fiji is not ready.

For what its worth..passage weather had w track very close a week ago.

My cruising and weather friends have been watching this play out since then.

The biggest surprise to the weather people is the northerly run.

W may recurve after Fiji with plenty of power due to the unseasonally warm waters...and go hunting again....

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I hear that the Tongan's had a miserable time of it - about 15 dwellings demolished and about 20 times that damaged. No fatalities at least. They can't afford this kind of thing poor people.

 

Watching it closely - yacht is in a hole in the ground at Vuda point..

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Yep now cat 5...

(surprise surprise...it just made it to the Australian news cycle, about when the Australian flights were cancelled) 

 

Very interesting to see what happens now.

Some long range forecasts have it getting much larger..

Travelling west, then curving south...travelling west again just below the southern islands of Vanuatu, and below New Caledonia, then turning north AGAIN..about half way between New Caledonia and the Australian East coast...

That takes it out to a week from now...

 

Winston is a very naughty boy....

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IT - I am in NZ at the moment. And if the yacht is damaged, its well insured. Its the residents of the Islands who have lost houses, crops etc I feel for. At worst, we loose a luxury item. For them, its their home and their food supply.

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It was too long ago for me to remember what the name of the cyclone was, nor the exact year, but I can remember one hitting Fiji some 30-35 years ago. I went to Fiji a couple of years after and can vividly remember the destruction still clearly visible. Much of Fiji had been flattened and I mean flattened. Yet I would have to say that from the TV news pictures coming through so far, that level of damage is not obvious. I did clearly think at the time way back them, that the level of damage to buildings was because buildings were mostly Huts and Corrugated Iron shelters,(calling it a shed is a stretch) and thought that if better building standards were met, then there would be less building damage. But the Tree's that were flattened, including the Coconut Tree's, which takes some doing, was staggering. I also remember concrete block Buildings very close to the Beach, that were nothing more than concrete blocks. No roof, windows or any form of timber left. It was like the building was in the process of being built and they hadn't got around to installing anything else at that point.

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Winston the strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Southern Hemisphere
Winston's 185 mph sustained winds at its peak intensity at 00 UTC February 20 are the highest for any Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone ever rated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The previous record was 180 mph winds, held jointly by Cyclone Zoe of 2002 and Cyclone Monica of 2006. Winston's lowest central pressure as estimated by the Fiji Meteorological Service was 915 mb at 06 UTC February 20. This ranks Winston as the 29th most intense tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere by pressure. The record lowest pressure is 890 mb by Cyclone Zoe of 2002. Winston's top winds were higher than its central pressure might imply because it was a relatively small cyclone, so the wind-generating difference in pressure was packed into a small area. Winston joins a very select club of Category 5 storms ever recorded to churn the South Pacific waters east of Australia. Since satellite records began in 1970 (with high-quality satellite images only available since 1990), just eleven Cat 5s (including Winston) have been observed in the South Pacific east of Australia. Only two of the ten previous Cat 5s have made landfall as a Category 5. The most recent was last year's Cyclone Pam, which was at its peak strength, with 165-mph Category 5 winds, when it passed over several small Vanuatu Islands to the north of Efate Island, Vanuatu's most populous island. The other Category 5 landfall was by Cyclone Zoe of 2002, which made a direct hit as a Category 5 storm on several small islands in the Temotu Province of the Solomon Islands with a total population of 1700. There was one other close call, though: the eye of Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Olaf passed 15 miles east of Ta'u, American Samoa, on February 16, 2005, but caused minimal damage.

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