Cyclone Pam

[ex Elly 258]

Boats in Port Vila have copped it:

 

[Fogg 427]

Looks and sounds terrible. I can't make contact with friends there. I'm on my boat in BOI and its building here - hard to read track but it's starting to look like we might get a pretty big blow in NZ too.

[Black Panther 1,765]

Hey Rob where are you holed up? I couldn't get away but had a friend go out and double up the mooring lines and tie everything down.

[Beccara 25]

Moved CatKnapp into the Whangarei town basin just in time, doubled all the lines and think i'll be spending tonight on her keeping an eye on things. I hope the boats that don't get much use out at Urquharts are ok

[Fogg 427]

Hey Rob where are you holed up? I couldn't get away but had a friend go out and double up the mooring lines and tie everything down.

[Fogg 427]

I'm snugged up in Opua Marina got one of the last berths. Other people are out at anchor or looking for cyclone moorings. When I've finished my laundry I'll pop out to Black Panther and take a look if you like?

[Black Panther 1,765]

Thanks, yes please.

[Fogg 427]

Ok I'll leave shortly. This is the current view in Opua - it's gusting close to 40 I'd say.

[Fogg 427]

.

[Fogg 427]

You're probably as good as you're gonna get - as always the biggest risk is someone upwind drifting down onto you but there's not much you can do about that.

[darkside 67]

I see the Sydney Morning Herald is saying from Vila "Two foreign nationals are believed to have drowned when their sailing boat sank in the rough seas, but their nationalities are not yet known"

I haven't been there for over a decade but that shot looks like the dock at the Waterfront Bar?

[Black Panther 1,765]

Thanks again Rob, yes I worry about our red neighbour, some of the junk on his deck might fly off and hit my boat.

[Black Panther 1,765]

Where the best place to find real time weather on the interweb, since I'm not on the boat.

[erice 732]

not sure this is what you mean

 

but it works for me

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-186.36,-32.08,623

 

1pm

 

4pm

 

1am monday prediction

 

4pm monday prediction

 

 

 

 

[Fogg 427]

erice how do you get it to do that ie give precise estimates for a point location?

[erice 732]

^

 

zooming in to auckland it looks like we'll be getting 30knots?

 

from the south east

 

so should be ok for okahu bay

 

but a little rough at northcote point

[erice 732]

^ click on the 

 

earth

 

bit on the lower left

 

then use the 

 

>

 

to go forward 3 hours

 

or the 

 

>>

 

to go forward 24hrs

 

also click on the area you are most interested in to get the pic to zoom in as much as possible

 

the wind speed and angle should be the estimation for the small green circle

 

 

not a day to be sailing near the kermadecs

[Fogg 427]

David, real time weather brough to you from Opua Cruising Club - it's still blowing old boots but seems to have eased since I was out at your boat. But looking at those slightly worrying pictures above from erice I presume it's a temporary lull before picking up again.

 

I can see Black Panther from the OCC bar.

[Battleship 100]

Predict Wind observations Shows 51 knots at channel island but only 27 at cape Brett, maybe dodged a bullet, (fingers crossed).

[erice 732]

the last of the 4 pics above shows a bit of red at east cape on closest approach to land

 

red seems to be 100kph or 60?knots

 

but don't be fooled by the digital accuracy of these predictions

 

wind speeds and course is of course only the 'best guess" the program can make from the data it gets

 

if you save those pics and then the day after tomorrow use the

 

to see what actually happened

 

it won't be what was predicted....

 

more likely is somewhere between "very close" - "simply wrong"

 

we still have a lot to learn about the weather around nz