DrWatson 375 Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 What's the earliest anyone would consider coming back down from the Islands? Mid Sept? Early Oct? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Island Time 1,235 Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Depends on the year. I've done it leaving 11 Sept and had a great trip. This year has been particularly difficult, with all the weather models often disagreeing and very short windows...many boats up there still waiting now! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TimB 7 Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 "weather models often disagreeing and very short windows...many boats up there still waiting now" Could it be a result of too much information. In the past you got one forecast (maybe) and then picked your best guess and just went.... Now we get overloaded with detail and can't make a decision. tb Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Terry B 71 Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Thread drift alert: I agree TimB with the "too much info" thing. The Internet is a wondrous thing and I love it - BUT - try googling something like "how to attach deck hardware" and you'll find a gazillion different ways! I tend to go to the manufacturers web sites first for info now. Which brings me to a total thread drift - I wish people who drill holes in boats would consult the West System manuals first! Every boat I've owned has had holes drilled and NOT used the epoxy correctly or at all to ensure no water gets into the substrates. My current yacht has a balsa core.......... just taking some hardware off now and OMG!!! It is not sufficient to just use a bloody sealant!!!! Rant over. Carry on. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ex TL systems 63 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 well if you had a solid boat and were confident why couldn,t you go up in May and come back in August or July, not every one can get 6 months off work and just because it is winter doesn,t mean that you can,t go sailing. At least in the open ocean you can adjust your course to suit the conditions, or take a break on a sea anchor. With cyclone season being unpredictable maybe too early is a lot safer than late. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Chewing Gum 17 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Yes most race yachts come straight back in say June or July. It is often windier in September and October down this way Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DrWatson 375 Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 I guess it always does depend on the year and the weather at the time, of course. But it's just good to know if planning to arrive in NZ in Sept is a mad idea or if it's totally feasible given appropriate planning and preparation etc. Of course most race yachts are more fully crewed than your average cruiser, and possibly make a shorter voyage of it. On thread drift... Not using epoxy (or similar) to seal the hole you drilled through your deck into your sheer clamp/carlin/cabin top/coaming etc. is a pet peeve of mine, too! It's also a good reason to buy/build a new boat rather than one which has been "continually improved and updated" (massive generalization, I know). It's probably the single largest factor in killing plywood boats and perpetuating the "plywood makes sh*t boats" myth. Why can't every piece of deck gear be sold with a simple printed card that reads "Seal your mounting holes you f**king idiot!" Larger pieces could even be sold with a small tube of ready mix... takes only a few seconds per hole, then drink a beer before placing the bolts/screws. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
marinheiro 352 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 The weather forecasts these days give a good indication of what you are likely to encounter heading north from NZ, perhaps a little less so for the return trip, but overall allow an informed decision. Max" went to Fiji early July and came back mid August (not the preferred times) and had the odd bumpy day on both trips but no problems. "Katariana" has just arrived from New Cal via Norfolk Is - they motored almost the whole way from Norfolk to Auckland Yet in other years boats have experienced dreadful conditions voyaging in these same times. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Chewing Gum 17 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 The weather forecasts these days give a good indication of what you are likely to encounter heading north from NZ, perhaps a little less so for the return trip, but overall allow an informed decision. Max" went to Fiji early July and came back mid August (not the preferred times) and had the odd bumpy day on both trips but no problems. "Katariana" has just arrived from New Cal via Norfolk Is - they motored almost the whole way from Norfolk to Auckland Yet in other years boats have experienced dreadful conditions voyaging in these same times. Yes Katariana were using Predictwind and stopped at Norfolk for a Southerly to pass through. A good call ! On a previous return trip they weren't so lucky and got a bit of a pasting. Lesson learnt - Use every resource possible for weather and have no time constraints. We did NZ circumnav 2 years ago with very little bad experiences or on the wind stuff for exactly the same reasons - watch the weather like a hawk and move only when it dictates. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Island Time 1,235 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 The most common plan for this trip by any responsible modern skipper is to watch the 4 main weather model forecasts, and when they (or 3 of the 4) are close to agreement if the conditions are Ok it's time to go. This year that has been on fewer occasions than normal. When they do not agree, then conditions are unstable and forecast conditions might be completely wrong. As skipper it's your call, and your responsibility. For many cruisers, the trip to/from NZ is the heaviest weather they see on a circumnavigation. It is common to have a lot of boats waiting at a departure port (like Noumea) and discussing the forecasts between them. This can often, as mentioned above, cause "analysis paralysis" where they find it had to make any decision due to too much info and too many opinions. I too have sat behind Norfolk waiting for a frontal system to pass. It was well worth the wait. IMO the weather, and weighing the risks, planning the voyage, then doing it, is all part and parcel of ocean voyagers. Not to use the information available and make the most informed decision possible, is, again IMO, foolhardy. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
marinheiro 352 Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Interesting situation over the next 7 days to reach NZ. If you were in Tonga I think that is where you should be staying with the low to the east of NZ and the SWly's coming off the advancing high. From New Cal a strategy could be keep to the west and advance down the back of the high as it progresses across the Tasman & NZ. Might be some motoring required Weather sites I check Predictwind Metservice MetVUW Marine weather BOM (Australia) any others of note people have used? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
darkside 61 Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Never used it for planing but windytv is interesting https://www.windyty.com/?2015-11-04-06,-35.066,160.488,4 I have used the Fiji met service though as their surface pressure faxes are easily the best as they clearly show the trough lines http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/0990.jpg Quote Link to post Share on other sites
marinheiro 352 Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 I have not used it but I asume that most of the Fiji weather map info is provided in the IAC Fleet code reports, available from Saildocs or Yotreps. I see OpenCPN has a plug in to translate this data. Useful info when at sea. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Island Time 1,235 Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Opencpn uses the GFS, Coamps, or RTOFS weather models, user selectable, and as above, with the correct plugin, can overlay these on your chart, static or animated. For free. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Dtwo 157 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Have arrived 2-up from Tonga in early September. Easterly the entire way. Cold as. WX forecasting - try SwellMap.co.nz. Got switched on to that by a fishy mate and it is proving to be more precise than MetVUW, my previous favourite. Somehow the timing seems to be more accurate. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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