motorb 41 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 What do you guys reckon for next week? Different models are giving very different answers and while I'd love to have an easy run out to the Barrier on Monday, I'm not so keen on fighting it for the return leg on Friday.... If I had to guess, I'd say more of the same SW 20kts gusting 25 until that high moves over and the wind eases up 10kts east maybe nor-east, but maybe I'm just being overly optimistic. Keen to hear your thoughts and preferred forecast models. Of course if it doesn't let up we'll just have to settle in at Kawau for the week, but I was hoping to finally get our little 25ft tracker over to the barrier this year and tick it off the sailing bucket list. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
K4309 395 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Who've you got as crew? If it's the missus and kids the forecasts are a different proposition to going with a couple of hard-arsed mates. That is on the basis of beating back from Barrier in a 25fter with 25 gusting 35 on the nose for 8 hours plus. Currently I wouldn't trust a forecast till it happens at the moment (for good weather that is). If several models are saying different things, all that is tell you is a low certainty of the the outcome. If all models say the same thing, there is a high certainty of what they say actually happening. But these current patterns are unseasonal and highly unusual. Personally I don't think it's anything to do with a high forming, but that low that has been sitting over the Chathams since Christmas Eve, that can push back into a high any time it wants and set up more Southerly / SW. And the only certainty is forecasts change over 7 days. What a forecast says now will not be what the weather actually is next Friday. Obviously if it looks like a high is coming on, it is ideal to head to Barrier on a SW and come back on a NE, but that is ideal stuff and based on the last couple of weeks of weather, akin to looking for rocking horse poo or unicorn farts. As in things that simply don't happen. If your going with the missus and kids you can probably have as much fun around Kawau Bay area without the risk of an epic pasting on the way home. Or be flexible and head to Kawau Bay area, if the forecasts firm up do a mish to the Barrier, but don't pin any great expectations on it. If your going with a couple of hard arsed mates, just send it. A lot to be said for being flexible and adaptive with these current weather patterns. It is not normal weather for this time of year by a long shot. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
motorb 41 Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 2 hours ago, K4309 said: be flexible and head to Kawau Bay area, if the forecasts firm up do a mish to the Barrier, but don't pin any great expectations on it. Yeah that sounds like the best bet right now. Just me and the Mrs, but myself I'm not too keen on sailing 8+ hours into big swells and high gusts, and I don't think the Mrs is going to handle rough seas too well, either. What forecast models do you think work well for the Hauraki? Metservice tend to underestimate wind I reckon. I try to look at various options, and as you said, if they don't agree then things are generally going to be unpredictable. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
K4309 395 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, motorb said: What forecast models do you think work well for the Hauraki? Metservice tend to underestimate wind I reckon. I try to look at various options, and as you said, if they don't agree then things are generally going to be unpredictable. Metservice is a shambles. But they get their data from all the same global models. I use Predict Wind, with the paid subscription (standard). Gives access to 6 models. Four are standard international global models, forget the names (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, which I think are North American, European and UK), and two Predict Wind models, which are based on two of the global models with PW enhancements. I put most weight on the two PW models, but PW show the forecast accuracy for all the models so you can go and see which ones have been most accurate over the last couple of weeks. It is not that one model is ever better than any of the others. And none are 'better' for the Gulf than others. With 6 models, as said earlier, if they all line up you have high confidence in the forecast, if they are all different you have low confidence in the forecast. But knowing your forecast confidence is key. You can't get that by looking at a single model, like Metvuw or Swellmap or Metservice or what ever. All those services take the exact same global model data and present it with different graphics and user interface. But the underlying data is exactly the same. Predict Wind also have very extensive now-casting, and an extensive range of live web-cams as well. Is handy for educating yourself on actual conditions in a given wind strength and direction for spots without having to physically go there (example, there is a camera above the Kawau Boating Club, so you can see how blowy Bon Accord is in a SW or Westerly without going in there and deciding it is too blowy, then bugging out to Mahurangi). If you want to get super techo, PW also do 1 km grid forecasts (super high resolution) and a whole lot of weather routing type stuff, fastest route for a given departure time, optimisation of departure time, and even things like hull slaming / how rough it will be (which I haven't used). Some of that stuff can be a distraction, but if you understand it's limitations can also be really handy. Just looking at a 1km forecast is hugely more detailed than an 8 km forecast, which is in itself night and day better than a 50km data-grid forecast, which is what most forecast outputs are in. 1 km grid forecasts are good if you into racing and combine that with weather routing. Every now and then I will also look at Niwa's climate outlook, but that is for longer term trends (3 months) and currently is about as useful as reading a horoscope. If you do a deep dive into Niwa's climate outlook you can find the techo stuff the quants use to produce the forecasts (quantitative data analysts). It covers metrics on a more global scale such as the difference in easter and western pacific water temp (indicator of La Nina and strength, think its called SAM), the Indian Ocean Dipole (kind of the same as SAM, has a big effect on highs and lows heading toward NZ) and the Madden Julian Oscilliation, which to be honest I still haven't gotten my head around. The point is, all those things are in a state of flux at the moment, there is no clear patterns and no known weather pattern getting established. That all indicates to me (rightly or wrongly) that the weather this summer is 'off script', it is unstable, and the forecasters are struggling to understand the current atmospheric carrying ons, and therefore the short term forecasts won't be that reliable. I'm assuming up until the weather falls back into a more predictable pattern. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
aardvarkash10 1,084 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I find windy's standard model works fine. Mrs aardvark runs predict wind on her phone, the two apps give very similar forecasts. We are heading to Fitzroy on Monday and it has been showing consistent southerly for Monday, slowly swinging to west by Thursday then dropping completely on the west of Barrier Thursday afternoon. Good for us as we will be sailing pretty much 0 degrees, arriving Fitzroy on Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday mid day depending on how we dawdle. Metservice says to expect southerlies for at least two more weeks, then a shift to more northerly patterns. It's the gulf. If you don't like the weather, wait 12 hours. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
K4309 395 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 13 minutes ago, aardvarkash10 said: Metservice says to expect southerlies for at least two more weeks, then a shift to more northerly patterns. Where does it say that? is it a blog thing or some sort of medium term forecast? Keen for a link if you have it handy. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
aardvarkash10 1,084 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Sorry, it was NIWA. Less saying than inferred from their commentary. https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-december-2024-february-2025 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
K4309 395 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, aardvarkash10 said: Sorry, it was NIWA. Less saying than inferred from their commentary. https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-december-2024-february-2025 Ahh, that one. I've re-read that several times now. When I first read it at the start of Dec it looked like a forecast, esp the high confidence of higher than normal temperatures (started wearing winter shirts and woolen jerseys again last few days - which does not align with higher than normal temp). I re-read it last week and it now reads more like a horoscope. Completely indecipherable. Being horoscope style, I think there is a great risk of people inferring what they want to hear out of that I'd be keen to know if any forumites know of good medium term weather blogs or what not. Am waiting for Niwa's January climate outlook to be issued, but aren't holding my breath. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Psyche 775 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 We've been out at Barrier for a couple of weeks, it's been fresh and swinging NW through SW pretty much non stop and most days see high teens to 40kts plus at times This week is more of the same with the following week looking light and settled. The forecasts generally line up but best not to put too much faith in the finer details. The coastguard app seems good too and if you are heading out make sure you have a Vodafone connection as Spark and VHF coverage is patchy. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Black Panther 1,745 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Wait till you are ready to leave, then choose a destination that suits. Then again I'm still in Tahiti. Very nice apart from afternoon thunderstorms. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
waikiore 461 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I believe that is fairly busy at Smokehouse for the last week, and Onetangi for that matter. Glad I am not desperate to come in from the Barrier, home in four line bay getting boat prepped for Sail GP weekend accom instead. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Lindsay 36 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 hours ago, Psyche said: … The coastguard app seems good too … If you’re referring to the forecast on the coastguard app just be aware that it’s copied directly from MetService (as is the Maritime Radio broadcast on VHF). 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Lindsay 36 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Another useful resource is this Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/haurakigulfweather Their latest post today has this to say: Coolest start to the year since 2017. A continued sequence of fronts from low pressure systems that commenced from around Christmas day, is the reason for a much cooler, showery and windier start to 2025. A large high is likely to develop over NZ by next weekend (Jan 11th) bringing more settled and warmer conditions mid-month. The tropics will become active around Fiji, Tonga, Samoa and Cook Islands region during this period but high pressure will protect NZ from any storm remnants trying to head south for now. [Includes video of projected weather chart from the U.S GFS model over the next 11 days] 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
khayyam 99 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 At this point I'm inclined to think it will be sw 15-20 for the foreseeable 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
motorb 41 Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 I've been looking at https://weatherwatch.co.nz/maps-radars/wind/wind-forecast as it makes it easy to compare forecasts (and has the predictwind models, too). If more models start to agree on a break in the SW pattern I think we'll go for it and let the wind blow us out from Kawau on Monday or Tuesday, return to Kawau Fri/Sat.... either way, we'll be out on the water so it's not the end of the world if we don't make the barrier this time around. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
motorb 41 Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 Well we made it out past titiri and it was looking pretty good, but it quickly became apparent that I'd be single handed the whole day. Pulled into Kawau and will probably just chill here for the week and hope conditions are better when we try again early Feb. BTW, it seems the weather station on Titiri has been out of action since new years day. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Lindsay 36 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 56 minutes ago, motorb said: BTW, it seems the weather station on Titiri has been out of action since new years day. Correct, but the nearby station on Whangaparoa Peninsula is a good substitute. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
aardvarkash10 1,084 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Today was flat calm zero wind between Hooks Bay and Happy Jack. Wind came in about 4.30pm. we are tucked in behind Double Island tonight, up to Fitzroy tomorrow. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
aardvarkash10 1,084 Posted Wednesday at 03:39 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:39 AM New report. Forecasts were closer but still not realistic. Motored from just before false head into Fitzroy. Wind, such that it was, from the west. Beers good, smokehouse reasonably busy, we are further up away from the stinkpots ... 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Psyche 775 Posted Wednesday at 07:15 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:15 PM Summer might be starting this weekend, wish I was out there! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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