The outlook for spring

[Psyche 633]

https://niwa.co.nz/climate/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-september-november-2023

Some highlights, essentially its going to be fresh SW with a lot of clear days

 

• Air pressure is forecast to be above normal to the northwest of Aotearoa/New Zealand and below normal to the south of the country, leading to more southwesterly quarter winds than normal across the country for the season as a whole. However, the pattern during the first half of September will differ from this theme, with more easterly quarter winds.
• Spring rainfall is about equally likely to be near normal or above normal in the west of the South Island and most likely to be below normal in all other regions. Spring may be marked by unusually long dry spells for several regions, owing to a combination of high pressure near the country and lower chances for atmospheric rivers.
• Spring temperatures are most likely to be near average in the north and west of the North Island and about equally likely to be near average or above average in all other regions.
• Spring will come with more southwest winds and occasional outbreaks of cold air as well as episodes of warm-to-hot air from Australia, particularly in eastern areas of both islands.
• A prevailing area of high pressure near the North Island may lead to clear, cold nights and mornings and the potential for unseasonable frosts.
• Seasonal wind strength is expected to be above normal, particularly when westerlies intensify, as predicted from the second half of September.

[Ex Machina 366]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/el-nino-incoming-nzs-climate-to-take-rapid-turn-within-weeks/XQ7ZEZVPEFA3LMWRWRNVWZ6KZY/

[dutyfree 170]

LOL - Temp, slight probability skew to above, rainfall down, soil follows rainfall as does river flows.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty

The table below shows the probabilities (or percent chances) for each of three categories: above average, near average, and below average. In the absence of any forecast guidance there would be an equal likelihood (33% chance) of the outcome for any of the three categories. Forecast information from local and global guidance models is used to indicate the deviation from equal chance that is expected for the coming three-month period. All outlooks are for the three months as a whole. There will inevitably be relatively wet and dry days, and hot and cold days, within a season. The exact range in temperature and rainfall within each of the three categories varies with location and season. However, as a guide, the “near average” or middle category for the temperature predictions includes deviations up to ±0.5°C for the long-term mean, whereas for rainfall the “near normal” category lies between 80 per cent and 120 per cent of the long-term mean. The following outcomes are the most likely for this region:

• Temperatures are most likely to be near average (50% chance). A prevailing area of high pressure near the region may cause clear, cold nights and mornings and the potential for some unseasonable frosts.
• Rainfall totals are most likely to be below normal (45% chance). Although the first half of September will be unsettled at times, an increased frequency of high pressure systems near the region during spring will likely lead to longer spells of drier than normal conditions.
• Seasonal wind speeds may be stronger than normal.
• Soil moisture levels are most likely to be below normal (45% chance) while river flows are about equally likely to be below normal (45% chance) or near normal (40% chance).

	Temperature	Rainfall	Soil moisture	River flows
Above average	35	20	20	15
Near average	50	35	35	40
Below average	15	45	45	45

[Adrianp 120]

Can we please book in 20kts Southwester for Friday 20th October?

[Cameron 76]

8 hours ago, Adrianp said:

Can we please book in 20kts Southwester for Friday 20th October?

Well that's cursed it now!

[Zozza 293]

This summer will be fantastic, with following Sou winds when going north, that will turn on key to WNW when going south.....and it will do this as I sold my other boat that I was campaigning for another that needs fixing.....  

[Black Panther 1,587]

I'll settle for sunshine.  Whichever way the wind blows I'll go downwind. 

[alibaba 77]

BP- you are obviously a gentleman!

[Black Panther 1,587]

Haha. It's coming up to 10 years we have owned BP and I think we've done maybe 6 days of windward sailing.

[Addem 95]

On 13/09/2023 at 1:32 PM, Adrianp said:

Can we please book in 20kts Southwester for Friday 20th October?

Precisely what we need. Legends regatta - Tauranga to Great Mercury Island. 

And then NW on return on Monday. 

[Psyche 633]