Predicted weather,swell etc. Help please.

[Rgvkiwi 15]

Hi Crew

Windy says swell over next 2-3 days as 0.7m. Met service says 0m swell but condition 3-5 which registers as bad.

Can anyone offer general and more specific guidance please?

We want to short hand (me) with wife (who is capable to steer in flat to moderate conditions) and 6 year old daughter for a few days, maybe up to Kawau from Gulf harbour.

[Lindsay 39]

Met service says wind easing by Friday. Should be fabulous up at Kawau (apart from the new year crowds).

[ex Elly 265]

Metservice says "Northeast swell half a metre."  It doesn't really get any less than that. 

I would be more worried about the current strong wind warning (with a novice crew). 

But the wind is in the right direction, so maybe wait till Friday afternoon or Saturday morning then head off.

 

[Rgvkiwi 15]

23 minutes ago, ex Elly said:

Metservice says "Northeast swell half a metre."  It doesn't really get any less than that. 

I would be more worried about the current strong wind warning (with a novice crew). 

But the wind is in the right direction, so maybe wait till Friday afternoon or Saturday morning then head off.

 

Thank you, thats kind of where im leaning.

Picture below shows what I mean about the "dangerous" warning. They say 1-3 dangerous, 4-5 moderate etc...

2 seems squarly in the dangerous zone. Maybe they are factoring the strong winds currently.

 

[Black Panther 1,767]

What's the boat, concur with suggestions above.

[Fish 0]

1 hour ago, Rgvkiwi said:

Thank you, thats kind of where im leaning.

Picture below shows what I mean about the "dangerous" warning. They say 1-3 dangerous, 4-5 moderate etc...

2 seems squarly in the dangerous zone. Maybe they are factoring the strong winds currently.

 

I think that 'boating' forecast you have highlighted is more a fishing forecast and indicates comfort in a fizz boat while anchored for fishing. With the current sou wester, the chop will be such that it would be a bit dangerous trying to stand up in a tinnie, bait hooks and drink Lion Red.

The more appropriate marine forecast for your trip is this one: Huaraki Gul Recreational Marine. Swell, as in ocean swell is nothing at the moment, i.e. no good for surfing. Wind driven waves will be moderately high, but going with the wind. If you tried sailing into it in a small boat, it would be a bit tedious. Depending on the size of your boat, going with the wind and waves would be ok. But as per comments, best wait for Saturday, esp if you don't want to frighten your 6 yo or upset the missus.

 

Hauraki Gulf Recreational Marine Forecast - MetService New Zealand

[aardvarkash10 1,105]

is that in your Ross 830?  I wouldn't be too concerned.

You are cruising not racing.  If its looking blowy, reef early or depower.  You are with the wind wind in both directions if you go up tomorrow and back Sunday.

Your question indicates an abundance of caution - thats a good start!

[Fish 0]

 

Explainer,

The full 'boating' forecast is as per the link and copied below. You can click on the icon you showed and follow through to this, with 6 hourly prediction for 7 days.

 It shows wind, sea and swell. Wind is obvious. 'Sea' is the sea state, i.e. wind waves and chop. Swell is ocean swell, which gives good surfing or not (at a surf beach). Ocean swell is always so long that it isn't an issue for sailing in the Gulf, it can be an issue to make an anchorage rolly, but other than that it isn't a factor, unless you want to go for a surf.

For sea, you've got period, chop height and sea height. I don't actually don't know the difference between sea and chop height. Period is the time in seconds between waves. If it is short, the waves will be steep and 'shitty'. The longer the period the more mello and flatter / smoother the sea will be. The combination of period and height tells you how steep the sea is. If it is really steep, it is nasty, powerful, rolly etc. It is possible to have a high height but a smooth, mello sea if it has a really long period. This is a classic ocean swell that you can sail over all day and not really notice.

Sea below where the period goes from 2-3 sec to 17 sec, that will be when things calm down nicely. Note that the max wind drops off at the same time. Forecast is 'easing' nicely.

Short story, if its been blowing SW for a few days, there is going to be a nasty chop. That is where the size of your boat and your fondness of going 'crash bang' comes into it to make a judgement call.

Inner Gulf Boating Forecast – The latest sea state, swell and wind forecasts and local tide information (metservice.com)

	4AM	10AM	4PM	10PM
Sea condition	3	3	2	3
WIND
Max gust (kts)	16	16	19	12
Avg wind speed (kts)	12	13	15	10
Wind direction	SW	SW	SW	SW
SEA
Period (sec)	2	2	3	17
Chop height (m)	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.3
Sea height (m)	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.3
Sea direction	S	SW	SW	SW
SWELL
Swell height (m)	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2
Swell direction	S	S	S	NE

 

RATING 7-10: Good

Calm waters, based on little or no wind, and swell height less than a metre.

 

RATING 4-6: Medium

Average boating conditions, possibly affected by light-fair winds, and a swell height around 1-2 metres.

 

RATING 1-3: Bad

Poor and possibly dangerous conditions such as strong winds & a big swell height 2-3+ metres.

 

NO RATING INFO

No rating information is available for the selected time period.

[Kevin McCready 83]

I'd also err on side of caution. Sailing downwind for newbies can be quite deceptive. Because you are "in" the wind you don't realise that it might be pretty blowy. Accidental gybe would not be pleasant. Buildup of waves behind you can also be tricky if there's wind against tide. I wrote a paragraph in my story about sailing back from Kawau to Auckland: https://kmccready.wordpress.com/2014/06/30/sailing/

[Rgvkiwi 15]

1 hour ago, Black Panther said:

What's the boat, concur with suggestions above.

Ross 830. The boats capable though the rudder is stiff with play and needs attention so im not so keen on being out where I have to do a lot of steering up and down faces of swell etc. 

Also had the missus in tears a few weeks ago crossing from Tiri to Whangaparoa with approx 2 m swell coming broadside to us. 6 year old and I were enjoying it, her, not so much. Was a bit "exciting" to be fair. So in the interests of keeping her onside we will wait out this current wind I think.

 

Just trying to balance all factors

 

Thanks for the input all.

 

Perhaps while im on the educate me bandwagon, how does the tide height relate to the depths marked on maps?

2.7m high - 0.7m low for example. I "think" you add that to the chart depth but want to be sure.

[CarpeDiem 530]

1 hour ago, Rgvkiwi said:

while im on the educate me bandwagon, how does the tide height relate to the depths marked on maps?

2.7m high - 0.7m low for example. I "think" you add that to the chart depth but want to be sure.

Yes. 

Chart depths on NZ charts are LAT (lowest astronomical tide) in meters. Thus they are the lowest depth that will ever be seen under normal gravitational conditions. Technically they could be lower due to weather effects such as an extreme long duration high weather system, in practice you don't need to worry about those centimetres because you'd be using your depth sounder when you're that close.

You'll never see a predicted low tidal height of < 0.

[CarpeDiem 530]

2 hours ago, Fish said:

I don't actually don't know the difference between sea and chop height.

Sea is the chop average across 1/3rd of the biggest waves. 

iirc - maybe it is 2/3rds... But it is about the big waves as these are the important ones

[Zozza 351]

Y'all lucky buggers making me jealous...the wind last couple days would have blown me all the way north with joy....but I'm stuck at GH Marina trying to get the last job(s) done so I can go blinking sailing...still, maybe I'll miss all the anchorages filled with the Riverias manned by Captain Piddlemarks by the time I do get going

[ex Elly 265]

Sounds like you have scared the family by going out in 2m swell, and now are too scared to go out in half metre swell!

You have a Ross 830 which is a lively race boat. But what you really should have got is a Reactor/Raven/Tracker/Marauder. Am I right?

 

 

[Rgvkiwi 15]

While a bigger more comfortable yacht is on the cards when we can afford to trade up, not so much. I think a y88 might be next.

For the moment we're happy with this boat. It's more the wind gusts that I'm concerned with. As mentioned above, just being cautious, especially as I dont know the boat very well at all yet.

Wife hasn't been sailing in 15 years and then only briefly, so she got a shock when we hit cross tide, wind swell through the gap.

I'm also being ultra cautious because I'm short handed (with a 6 year old onboard) and dont want to reinforce her bad experience.

I've crewed for a few seasons racing (some on Scarlet Fever R930) before and owned a few trailer sailors that were at least if not more lively. Doing 1-2 week long trips in a 22' etc. I'm used to bobbing  around like cork 🤣

In saying that, a bigger boat with more interior space and slightly better appointed will be nice.

In the meantime we are taking the opportunity of an affordable boat and hope to do some racing in the 830 with my business partner over the next 2 years. I figure racing is a great way for him to learn the ropes and the 830 sits in that space pretty well. 

Plus I need to get back in the sailing groove after 15 years away racing motocross and cars 🤗

[Kevin McCready 83]

10 hours ago, ex Elly said:

Reactor/Raven/Tracker/Marauder

Easterly 30.

[Ex Machina 390]

Play it safe and wait for a glamour day/s I reckon .  My wife was very timid for the first 6 months of owning our first boat . 
she would aching muscles from tensing up when the boat heeled more than 10 degrees . I have had some of my best boat surfs between Whangaparoa and kawau when there was no swell in the forecast . The chop in that area can get really nasty in a solid SW breeze .

we discovered by accident that racing was the best way for her to overcome her fear of the boat heeling . A busy boat with a public audience and giving her a job to do really calmed things down . She would only come racing on “nice days” for the first year but will come out on breezy days now as long as it’s in the harbour . 
 

I reckon hang for a week or two until this southerly/easterly system is gone and wait for the summer sea breeze pattern to kick in . Kawau and its surrounds are way more user friendly in those conditions , you will have way more anchorages to choose from and fear free sailing conditions .

[Vivaldi 56]

With the 830 if you are wondering whether you need to put a reef in or not - then put a reef in. They are faster when sailed flat, and also more comfortable for the family. Revolution Blues is a capable boat and we cruised her with babies on board. Just pick your weather. But even in a bit of wind it’s a very controllable boat downwind with main and jib or just main. 

[DoT 31]

Only two things you really need:

• time your trip so you have the wind with the tide through Tiri passage.
• shorten sail early, reefing main and smaller head sail - you're not racing. Yachts that are not overpowered are very comfortable even in steep chop - much more comfortable than motor boats.

[Rgvkiwi 15]

Thank you for all the good advice. We went out this morning and encountered some decent, uncomfortable wind and cross swell. Motoring with the storm gib up.

We hit out from GH in waiheke's direction to ride the swell better. Turning across to Kawau when we could make the gap. Sarah had a few moments but I told her we would turn around if it got any worse and we would just see how it was around the corner. Fortunately by the time we turned  across the top of Whangaparoa and headed North we were riding/surfing the swells and running with the wind, on a slight angle okay. 

So thanks to you all we are safely moored at mansion house for the night or two.Supposedly wind changes direction in 24 hours so will play that by ear too. Hopefully sail back.

I have to admit, the very stiff, slightly seized rudder is a big part of my reluctance. Can't wait to get that working right. She'll be a different boat then for sure.

Say gidday if you see us

Cheers.