NE / NNE winds at Xmas? What's the plan to head north?

[Zozza 320]

Of course, long range forecasts for the summer are just that, "long range and subject to change" - but all the models I am looking at are currently predicting a lot of NE, NNE

My initial plan was wait for a SW around New Years and head for Barrier, than a E through to S to head further north, but if the winds are days on end from the N / NE quarter I don't want to get stuck for a week say, at Kawau on the Western side of the Gulf waiting for a window to head to Barrier....  maybe if the NE does dominate, head for Coromandel and work your way up via eastern side of the Gulf with the better angle to that predominate wind ?  

Of course in the end, the wind will rule, and will dictate any would be plans.

Those with the decades of experience round the Gulf, any thoughts?

[Psyche 709]

Usually it's wake up and look out the window, but NIWA are saying its a la Nina year

30 November 2022

Outlook Summary

• La Niña continued during November and a marine heatwave developed in Aotearoa New Zealand’s coastal waters with sea surface temperatures 1.1˚C to 1.7˚C above average. Both will influence the summer climate. See the background for more information.
• Summer air pressure is forecast to be higher than normal over and to the south of the South Island and lower than normal north of the country. This will likely result in an easterly quarter air flow anomaly and fewer westerly winds over the three months as a whole.
• Summer temperatures are about equally likely to be near average or above average in the east of both islands, very likely to be above average in the north of the North Island and the west of both islands, and most likely to be above average in the north of the South Island.
• More sub-tropical northeast winds may result in more frequent hot days (>25˚C) for inland and western parts of both islands. Conversely, a reduction in northwesterly “foehn” winds will likely mean fewer hot days for eastern areas.
• Summer rainfall is about equally likely to be near normal or above normal in the north of the North Island and the east of both islands, most likely to be near normal in the west of the North Island and north of the South Island, and most likely to be below normal in the west of the South Island.
• Warmer than average regional seas are expected to fuel occasional heavy rainfall events; however, during periods of high pressure, dry spells will occur, particularly about inland and western parts of both islands. A dry spell is possible from mid-December to early January.
• The risk for dryness and drought is elevated about the western and lower parts of both islands, especially the South Island, inclusive of Otago, Southland, and the West Coast.
• New Zealand’s risk for ex-tropical cyclone activity is normal-to-elevated through April. These systems can cause flooding rainfall, strong winds, and coastal hazards.

 

How many times have holidaymakers been smashed over the Christmas New Year period with a left over cyclone? forecast for this year is a bit more than normal but since pretty much every year there's a good blow in January, if heading to Barrier it's a good idea to check your anchoring gear since it's probably going to be very crowded.

 

 

 

[Zozza 320]

Well Psyche that summary backs up the ENE outlook.

Also strange to see more cyclones predicted for NZ than the Easter Pacific Islands...

[Psyche 709]

Its all on the NIWA site, very interesting https://niwa.co.nz/climate/information-and-resources/elnino

 

 

 

[Black Panther 1,674]

Our plan: motor to the river mouth, check wind, go in the other direction  

[B00B00 317]

Our plan is to go north but will wait and see.

[Frank 157]

5 hours ago, Zozza said:

Of course, long range forecasts for the summer are just that, "long range and subject to change" - but all the models I am looking at are currently predicting a lot of NE, NNE

My initial plan was wait for a SW around New Years and head for Barrier, than a E through to S to head further north, but if the winds are days on end from the N / NE quarter I don't want to get stuck for a week say, at Kawau on the Western side of the Gulf waiting for a window to head to Barrier....  maybe if the NE does dominate, head for Coromandel and work your way up via eastern side of the Gulf with the better angle to that predominate wind ?  

Of course in the end, the wind will rule, and will dictate any would be plans.

Those with the decades of experience round the Gulf, any thoughts?

+1 for "head for Coromandel and work your way up via eastern side of the Gulf" Predominant NE weather is a PITA on the northland coast. Get to Happy Jacks and the cross the Colville Channel  in half decent conditions , the Auckland side of GB has it all, Good diving and fishing, plenty of Kai, nice sailing in the lee of the easterlies, great anchorages and scenery

. 

[eruptn 98]

Always love the NIWA forecasts, they pop them out here n there, but they never get evaluated. No one looks back to see how good they were. Where as we judge the Metsevice and other others like Predict Wind almost daily for its accuracy.

[CarpeDiem 507]

17 minutes ago, eruptn said:

Always love the NIWA forecasts, they pop them out here n there, but they never get evaluated. No one looks back to see how good they were. Where as we judge the Metsevice and other others like Predict Wind almost daily for its accuracy.

The pravailing wind in Auckland for the last 6 months on race days has been N/NE.  We've had more Code 0/jib starts than any other season I can remember. 

Takapuna Beach sand is all but gone due to the continual north-easterlies.

Not very scientific, but Niwa's prediction has been fairly consistently delivered from my perspective. 

------------

La Niña weather conditions, characterised by predominant north-easterly winds, had made a “noticeable impact” on the beach.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/300734858/sand-levels-at-popular-auckland-beach-at-their-lowest-since-1998

[Zozza 320]

32 minutes ago, CarpeDiem said:

The pravailing wind in Auckland for the last 6 months on race days has been N/NE.  We've had more Code 0/jib starts than any other season I can remember. 

Takapuna Beach sand is all but gone due to the continual north-easterlies.

Not very scientific, but Niwa's prediction has been fairly consistently delivered from my perspective. 

------------

La Niña weather conditions, characterised by predominant north-easterly winds, had made a “noticeable impact” on the beach.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/300734858/sand-levels-at-popular-auckland-beach-at-their-lowest-since-1998

Heck I had no idea NE winds could have such a dramatic effect on Taka Beach...spent a lot of time there as a youth 'Walking on the Beaches looking at the Peaches' as The Strangles song goes...

[aardvarkash10 1,056]

1 hour ago, Zozza said:

'Walking on the Beaches looking at the Peaches' as The Strangles song goes...

apropos given the very recent passing of Jet Black

[Island Time 1,278]

A lot of the inner coast of barrier is closed AND the MERCS!

 

 

AND ALSO THE MERCS!

[Zozza 320]

8 hours ago, Island Time said:

A lot of the inner coast of barrier is closed AND the MERCS!

 

 

AND ALSO THE MERCS!

That part of Great Mercury red zoned for no anchoring....is that the part that Sir Michael Fay holds a New Years Eve BBQ on shore for whatever sailors show up?  

[ballystick 76]

The NY party at the Mercs has been toned down lately and is more of a casual affair. As for anchoring there who is going to police the restrictions. In the Mercs it is a washing of the anchoring equipment requirement and not taking of seaweed, shellfish, fish etc.

[Psyche 709]

12 hours ago, eruptn said:

Always love the NIWA forecasts, they pop them out here n there, but they never get evaluated. No one looks back to see how good they were. Where as we judge the Metsevice and other others like Predict Wind almost daily for its accuracy.

They are not predicting local weather but whats likely to happen based on past evidence

 

[Cameron 93]

12 hours ago, eruptn said:

Always love the NIWA forecasts, they pop them out here n there, but they never get evaluated. No one looks back to see how good they were. Where as we judge the Metsevice and other others like Predict Wind almost daily for its accuracy.

I've always been concerned when during spring NIWA predicts a long hot indian summer! It always seems to put a curse on us. I prefer when they predict it's not going to be great as it often ends up much better.

I think all the crap weather we are having now sets us up for a better summer. NZ weather never stays the same for that long and heading away on the end of crap weather should give you a decent period of the good stuff!

 

[Zozza 320]

21 minutes ago, Cameron said:

I've always been concerned when during spring NIWA predicts a long hot indian summer! It always seems to put a curse on us. I prefer when they predict it's not going to be great as it often ends up much better.

I think all the crap weather we are having now sets us up for a better summer. NZ weather never stays the same for that long and heading away on the end of crap weather should give you a decent period of the good stuff!

 

Well Cameron, at the moment we seem to be getting one good day, like yesterday - glorious - followed by 5 or 6 days of rubbish....last summer was simply outstanding...so far this year it seems more like August than December - so boy oh boy, do I hope your theory is correct!

[Psyche 709]

2 hours ago, Cameron said:

I've always been concerned when during spring NIWA predicts a long hot indian summer! It always seems to put a curse on us. I prefer when they predict it's not going to be great as it often ends up much better.

I think all the crap weather we are having now sets us up for a better summer. NZ weather never stays the same for that long and heading away on the end of crap weather should give you a decent period of the good stuff!

 

As I said get up and look out the window, most of the time if you ignore all but the very worst forecasts once you get out there it's golden

[Zozza 320]

[Zozza 320]

Lets hope this is all gone by the 23rd!