Here we go again!
Posted 11 September 2018 - 05:31 PM
Posted 11 September 2018 - 05:46 PM
Serious question, does anybody know of any recognised, auditable or otherwise defendable methodology for coming up with these economic impact statements?
I've had vague professional dealings with guys that produce these types of 'economic' reports. i.e .I've been in the same room when a client and one of these guys have discussed this stuff.
My understanding of these economic reports goes along the lines of:
Economic benefit guy: "so how big a number do you want us to put in the report"
Client (Punuku): "enough to shut up the public and make Phil Goff swallow our story, hook, line and sinker"
Economic benefit guy: "No problem, for a $10mil benefit, my fee is $50k, for a $30mil benefit my fee is $100k, and if you want a GDP boost of 39.5 mil and 779 full time jobs, my fee is $199k plus disbursements"
PS, note how a $40 mil GDP boost as been notched down by half a mil to look a tad more realistic, and the 780 full time jobs has been dropped by one as well, so it doesn't look so much like they are just pulling numbers out of their arse.
An economic impact report prepared for Panuku says the mooring could provide at least a $30.4 million boost over the next decade by allowing an increasing number of the largest ships to berth.
The report says in the "likely future" scenario , the spinoff could be an annual GDP boost of $39.5m and up to 779 full-time jobs.
Posted 11 September 2018 - 06:08 PM
The ultimate result of shielding men from folly is to fill the world with fools. Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher 1820 - 1903
Posted 11 September 2018 - 07:06 PM
Posted 11 September 2018 - 07:19 PM
Cruise ships are overseas owned. Tourist spend very little while on shore.
When is the next big cruise ship coming? They sometimes leave around 8pm, Be great to do a protest on the water after a wednesdsay race this summer.
Posted 11 September 2018 - 10:01 PM
I've also been involved in these economic benefit analyses for Medical devices. Client asked us to prepare reports for 3 EU country health systems to prove that products x and y give positive benefit in terms of increased quality life years and economic saving.
Client provided analytical model (based in Excel...) to "prove" it.
Key variable (quality of life benefit) in model was based on a number published (from small largely irrelevant clinical study with subjective outcomes). Looking into the variable and study publication I found that the client's model used a misinterpretation of that key variable - in fact it was an incorrect application of statistical methods by client to try to generate a the number from two numbers published. i.e. the key variable they claimed was published, was in fact not.
I told them this.
They insisted we use that variable.
I quit the project in protest.
"Si Dieu n'existait pas, il faudrait l'inventer"
Posted 12 September 2018 - 04:36 AM
"the mooring could provide at least a $30.4 million boost over the next decade"
So around one thousandth of one percent of current GDP. Sure that seems like a good deal.
Posted 12 September 2018 - 07:08 AM
Moor those cattle trucks out of Rangi. Are we really going to ruin our harbour a bit more and be reduced to a third world zoo for fat aging boomers to gawk at? They come ashore and spend money at local bars and restaurants, then they buy chintzy tikis and kiwi "art" then they piss off. Cant see how that benefits in the long term more than keeping the harbour uncluttered from ad hoc development.
"Never argue with a fool; onlookers may not be able to tell the difference." - Mark Twain
Posted 12 September 2018 - 08:30 AM
I personally do not see a problem with a dolphin as it will not have much impact on tide flows,unlike wharf extensions,sure the passengers may not spend a lot of coin while here but the spin off is in provisioning.
Look at the money spent at Auckland airport,same scenario,prepaid trips ,supporting fellow countryman only stay at certain hotels only use certain bus companies. Talking the asian market here,only spend in certain shops etc
The real tourist market should be aimed at kiwis,would love to do a 10 /15 trip around the south island,but for less $$ can go to gold coast be warm eat cheaply ,rental cars cheaper,more courteous shop owners who make you feel welcome etc
The boss said "see you in the morning"didnt know he liked sailing
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