Here we go again!

[Bad Kitty 324]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/106959267/90m-mooring-extension-for-cruise-ships-proposed-for-aucklands-queens-wharf

 

[Fish 0]

Serious question, does anybody know of any recognised, auditable or otherwise defendable methodology for coming up with these economic impact statements?

I've had vague professional dealings with guys that produce these types of 'economic' reports. i.e .I've been in the same room when a client and one of these guys have discussed this stuff. 

My understanding of these economic reports goes along the lines of:

Economic benefit guy: "so how big a number do you want us to put in the report"

Client (Punuku): "enough to shut up the public and make Phil Goff swallow our story, hook, line and sinker"

Economic benefit guy: "No problem, for a $10mil benefit, my fee is $50k, for a $30mil benefit my fee is $100k, and if you want a GDP boost of 39.5 mil and 779 full time jobs, my fee is $199k plus disbursements"

 

PS, note how a $40 mil GDP boost as been notched down by half a mil to look a tad more realistic, and the 780 full time jobs has been dropped by one as well, so it doesn't look so much like they are just pulling numbers out of their arse.

 

An economic impact report prepared for Panuku says the mooring could provide at least a $30.4 million boost over the next decade by allowing an increasing number of the largest ships to berth.

The report says in the "likely future" scenario , the spinoff could be an annual GDP boost of $39.5m and up to 779 full-time jobs.

[armchairadmiral 411]

I may be able to help. The way it works is that staff/bureaucrats go to consultant,usually known to them as sympathetic,empathetic,understanding and cooperative. Consultant is informed of required outcome so consultant works back from there that produces a report to order. Pollies backs are covered because they are required to always act on professional advice. Rarely does a consultant produce any other sort of report at the penalty of not getting the next job. Plus the old boy network marks an uncooperative consultant. And that's how it works-- consultant gets huge fees,staff get a free ride and pollies backs are covered. Sad but true in most cases

[Black Panther 1,767]

read Confessions of an Economic Hit man. Yes they make sh*t up to suit their purpose.

[Freedom GBE 27]

Cruise ships are overseas owned. Tourist spend very little while on shore.

 

When is the next big cruise ship coming? They sometimes leave around 8pm, Be great to do a protest on the water after a wednesdsay race this summer.

[DrWatson 382]

I've also been involved in these economic benefit analyses for Medical devices. Client asked us to prepare reports for 3 EU country health systems to prove that products x and y give positive benefit in terms of increased quality life years and economic saving. 

 

Client provided analytical model (based in Excel...) to "prove" it. 

 

Key variable (quality of life benefit) in model was based on a number published (from small largely irrelevant clinical study with subjective outcomes). Looking into the variable and study publication I found that the client's model used a misinterpretation of that key variable - in fact it was an incorrect application of statistical methods by client to try to generate a the number from two numbers published. i.e. the key variable they claimed was published, was in fact not. 

 

I told them this. 

 

They insisted we use that variable.

 

I quit the project in protest.

[MarkMT 68]

"the mooring could provide at least a $30.4 million boost over the next decade"

 

So around one thousandth of one percent of current GDP. Sure that seems like a good deal.

[harrytom 697]

I personally do not see a problem with a dolphin as it will not have much impact on tide flows,unlike wharf extensions,sure the passengers may not spend a lot of coin while here but the spin off is in provisioning.

 

Look at the money spent at Auckland airport,same scenario,prepaid trips ,supporting fellow countryman only stay at certain hotels only use certain bus companies. Talking the asian market here,only spend in certain shops etc

 

The real tourist market should be aimed at kiwis,would love to do a 10 /15 trip around the south island,but for less $$ can go to gold coast be warm eat cheaply ,rental cars cheaper,more courteous shop owners who make you feel welcome etc 

[waikiore 486]

700 Jobs created -really?

[Dtwo 157]

Would it not be reasonable to ask Panuku (Maori Language Week - it translates as "Bunch of Thieving F$%^ers") to release their economic benefit workings for public scrutiny.  It would be interesting to watch the cockroaches run for the nearest cover.

[SloopJohnB 329]

D2

 

"Commercially sensitive" would be the reply.

[Dtwo 157]

Agree, anything to stop that sunlight!

[Fish 0]

700 Jobs created -really?

779 jobs, apparently...

[Berend de Boer 2]

I support extending the wharf. By digging a canal on the shore.

[Vorpal Blade 89]

Submissions can be made here - https://www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/have-your-say/have-your-say-notified-resource-consent/notified-resource-consent-applications-open-submissions/Pages/ResourceConsentApplication.aspx?itemId=243&applNum=CST60323353

 

There are also lots of 'reports', knowing the councils style they will be glowing and will prove the Dolphins will cause zero issues and bring an estimated 256 gazillion billion in revenues....... BULL and you know the rest.

How about posting a response we can all cut and paste into the submission form. 

[muzled 140]

The numbers and size of cruise ships visiting Auckland has increased dramatically in recent years and are anticipated to increase further. Currently these vessels are accommodated at Queens Wharf and Princes Wharf. The largest cruise ships that currently visit Auckland are not able to berth alongside these wharfs, and so instead must employ a system termed ‘dynamic positioning’ to hold themselves mid-channel in the Waitematā Harbour

 

How many can't berth because they are too big?  I thought there was only one?

[Priscilla II 450]

Wynyard Wharf was plenty long enough to berth these monsters that is before the AC carved off a chunk for the bases.

[harrytom 697]

Did a bit of a search and what are the ports of Auckland Auckland council or Panuka on about

 

Queen mary 2 berthed at Queens wharf on her maiden voyage and she is 1132ft or 345m

 

The largest cruise ship at the moment is Symphony of the sea at 1188 ft or 362m (yet to do nz)

 

draft would be the issue 10m alongside AK wharves

[armchairadmiral 411]

With a pet commissioner running the show I can save a lot of money for everyone. "Application granted subject to conditions favourable to everyone except recreational users."