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Fatality - Northland

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We left Fiji on a fastish cruising cat a few days earlyer than Essence.

 

The forecast on Predict wind when we left Fiji was moderate westerlies for the last few days of our trip. The forecast changed about three days in to our trip, we got light easterlies all the way instead. We still had a dream ride down.

 

We could see this storm on the predict wind maps when were about half way, from memory it was following about 400 miles behind us. Essence had possibly left Fiji already when the forecast changed. Then hoping to go around the east of the storm. Waves could have slowed them down.

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You would have to wonder if there was some sort of structural failure as well as the windows. Sounds like the boat sunk quite quickly, that would need a lot of water ingress.

Yeah, but I think with those big windows missing, and breaking waves on deck, you'll be taking +100 litres with every wave... doesn't take much before the boat is 3T heavier, then 5, etc etc.

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Yeah, but I think with those big windows missing, and breaking waves on deck, you'll be taking +100 litres with every wave... doesn't take much before the boat is 3T heavier, then 5, etc etc.

Also take into account the initial breaking wave that took out the windows and washed crew off the deck. That would have put a pretty large amount of water in from the outset. From there freeboard would be reduced and combined with the wave motion and free surface effect, was probably putting the windows below the waterline.

 

Sobering account of the sinking and rescue. Condolences to all affected and much admiration for the Westpac crew and RNZAF.

Edited by DanInEurope

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This popping windows from within. How big dorados do you have to have to negate this?

I have SS grommets epoxied in to screw shutters to all my big windows. Weakest point-of-failure

would be getting blown outwards.

Just how does the internal airspace compress enough to do this?

My thought was incase the VHB & Dow795 failed.

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That is fascinating, do you know if it was being reported elsewhere on the wed, Puff?

It's valuable because as we all know tight isobars like that are always worse than the wind barbs say. Monday at 1 roughly where Essence was..30 knots. Clearly the plus 50 % rule applied there.

 

What model does James McGregor use as his base? GFS or EC?

 

Data from US National Weather Service

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Pressure increase, rather than decrease?

I would imagine (not from experience) that it is a little bit like scuba diving. Even a short distance underwater increases air pressure. If there is water in the form of a wave on top of the boat (1 or 2 m of green water?), or if the cabin is where the keel normally is (i.e. 2 m under water), that would likely have the same effect on air pressure as being 2 m under water in calm, flat water. 2 m = 20% of an atmosphere = lots of air popping.

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